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Nick Martinez 2022 and Beyond
#11 · August 31, 2022, 11:38 am
Tough call on both sides … what price the gamble on a 33 year old becoming an effective starter while maybe $10MM is too much for a swing man RP. The how may years to gamble?
Personally I can’t see any team giving him 3 years with no track record of being a successful SP at a price worthy of an established ML SP. Then at 33 even more a deterrent for a 3 year deal. Maybe he wants to be a SP but the question is other teams paying him on a bigger contract to give him the chance.
I guess if I were Martinez, I would not be confident in landing a significant better deal as a FA this winter. Actually he would be guaranteed in a sense $8MM for 2023 if he opts in (and not bought out now but bought out of 2024) and $6.5MM is decent for what he actually is doing for the Padres in 2022 and he opt out after next season.
Has to be smart that given the Padres’ starting pitching for 2023 (as it sits when he makes the decision) he will have a good chance to start on a good team in an environment he is comfortable with … could be the best set-up for him and can opt out after 2023.
On the Padres side have to assume they see him as a candidate for a SP in 2023 (not much else in house for #4 and #5) … and $6.5MM is a fair price for that role. Maybe a bit high if he ends up in the same role as now … but may need to play that given even some future questions in the pen.
Neither side probably wants to play this game year after year … so can see some discussions in OCT in re-writing the contract in to a guaranteed deal with both sides taking some risk.
#12 · September 19, 2022, 11:57 am
If we count on Darvish, Musgrove and Snell as out 3 starters, then we have to fill the other spots, #4-6, in the rotation. I have 6 starters in the rotation since the early rest in 2022 seemed to have a positive effect on the starters to open the season. Clevinger has not been that solid down the stretch and Manaea has been awful; if Clevinger not asking much beyond current 8M per season, then possibility that he will be re-signed and slot into the #4 slot. I'm looking at Groome and Knehr as the contenders for the #6 spot, thus opening up the #5 spot for Martinez.
With a healthy full bullpen next year - Hader, Pomeranz, Crismatt, Morejon, Johnson (he likely will be re-signed), Suarez, Garcia, Hill, J. Castillo, Wilson and possibly Baez and Kerr - there is more of a need for Martinez as a starter than a reliever. Plus there always is that random pitcher that suddenly discovers they key to his success and becomes a successful RP - that is more likely than a SP dropping into your lap.
For this reason, believe Preller will get the deal done to retain Martinez, particularly if Martinez is strong down the stretch and into the playoffs. I have a feeling Clevinger will re-sign; if not, then Martinez for sure has to become a SP.
#13 · September 19, 2022, 12:24 pm
I think the current issues with Clevinger is he is still going through the recovery period, tired arm from time to time, of TJ surgery. Yes, hes back, and at times, you can see the pitcher he was/can be. Then other days, he is slightly off, that is all part of the recovery period. I fully expect to see Clevinger back in a SD uni next season, probably in that $10-12M range, for 3-5 years. Maybe options for the 4th and/or 5th season.
And with as effective as Darvish has been, I would resign him this offseason, for another 2 additional season, keeping him through 2025. This allows the young SP recently drafter time to develop. And if it is for something around 3 years for $51M, and then I believe that reduces his CBT amount at the same time. So he would go from $21.5M to $17.5M CBT moneywise. And give SD an extra $4M to allocate some place else.
#14 · September 19, 2022, 1:17 pm
Even on his bad days Clev seems to be really strong the first two times through the order.
Is it fatigue or just loss of effectiveness?
Either way that bodes well for using him out of the BP in the Playoffs and also in getting him through this issue going into next season....if we re-sign him,which I also believe we will.
Just makes too much sense for the Padres,and for Clevinger,to stay in SD.
#15 · September 19, 2022, 2:11 pm
It will be interesting to see which of the opt out candidates take that route ... if they all opt in Padres should be right below the tax threshold with reasonable guesses on the ARB decisions plus full season cost of Soto and Hader. Right now (I change my mind often) ... think all three will opt to stay.
Martinez who is 32 has to think he can top $6.5MM (or get a multi-year deal) to not opt in. That is sort of being on the bubble in my view. As a starter this year (10 starts) ... not a compelling 4.70 ERA/1.55 WHIP. As a relief pitcher that is where he is excelling with 29 appearance (47 innings) and a 2.11 ERA / 0.96 WHIP. At age 32 those stats don't suggest a rush of teams wanting to make a multi-year deal or going much higher than the $6.5MM. Teams would want him ... just not on a big contract given 2022 is really his only track record. Probably most teams will look at him as a RP (non-closer) for salary purposed and that is right about where will get from the Padres.
If he is paying attention with Clevinger ($8MM) / Manaea ($9.750MM) FA (neither guarantee re-signs given the price) and no slam dunk SP coming up ... and assuming he wants to start ... remaining could get him that SP role and set-up for an opt out after 2023. He will have to make the decision right after the season ... can't wait until the off-season moves (if any) are made.
Never know what a player (and his agent) think but for me seems opting in with a very good shot at starting and elevating his market after 2023 would be smart. So, probably pencil him in as the #4 SP as the winter begins.
Also, back and forth on Clevinger (who I like and dream he can return his former elite status). However, he will be 32 and has a long history of injuries limiting his availability. A long term deal seems high risk betting on his time in Cleveland returning. He should still pull a $10MM deal from someone given some of the SP signings over the past few years without top line performance. If they sign someone that has any decent track record in 2022 ... think $10MM+/-. That will eat a lot of payroll and not likely to go for a second SP making the opening for Martinez pretty firm. Need money to backfill Bell, Drury, and Myers ... probably 2 bats ... and the same issue for serviceable bat ... $8-10MM ... or start rolling the dice.
Do think they will go over the threshold ... almost can't avoid it given this team and the desire to win ... but 2 plus bats and 2 plus SP off the FA market would be probably sending them over the 2nd (and maybe 3rd) level if they went for proven quality. Again makes it good for Martinez to stay.
#16 · September 19, 2022, 5:28 pm
Quote from fenn68 on September 19, 2022, 2:11 pmIt will be interesting to see which of the opt out candidates take that route ... if they all opt in Padres should be right below the tax threshold with reasonable guesses on the ARB decisions plus full season cost of Soto and Hader. Right now (I change my mind often) ... think all three will opt to stay.
Martinez who is 32 has to think he can top $6.5MM (or get a multi-year deal) to not opt in. That is sort of being on the bubble in my view. As a starter this year (10 starts) ... not a compelling 4.70 ERA/1.55 WHIP. As a relief pitcher that is where he is excelling with 29 appearance (47 innings) and a 2.11 ERA / 0.96 WHIP. At age 32 those stats don't suggest a rush of teams wanting to make a multi-year deal or going much higher than the $6.5MM. Teams would want him ... just not on a big contract given 2022 is really his only track record. Probably most teams will look at him as a RP (non-closer) for salary purposed and that is right about where will get from the Padres.
If he is paying attention with Clevinger ($8MM) / Manaea ($9.750MM) FA (neither guarantee re-signs given the price) and no slam dunk SP coming up ... and assuming he wants to start ... remaining could get him that SP role and set-up for an opt out after 2023. He will have to make the decision right after the season ... can't wait until the off-season moves (if any) are made.
Never know what a player (and his agent) think but for me seems opting in with a very good shot at starting and elevating his market after 2023 would be smart. So, probably pencil him in as the #4 SP as the winter begins.
Also, back and forth on Clevinger (who I like and dream he can return his former elite status). However, he will be 32 and has a long history of injuries limiting his availability. A long term deal seems high risk betting on his time in Cleveland returning. He should still pull a $10MM deal from someone given some of the SP signings over the past few years without top line performance. If they sign someone that has any decent track record in 2022 ... think $10MM+/-. That will eat a lot of payroll and not likely to go for a second SP making the opening for Martinez pretty firm. Need money to backfill Bell, Drury, and Myers ... probably 2 bats ... and the same issue for serviceable bat ... $8-10MM ... or start rolling the dice.
Do think they will go over the threshold ... almost can't avoid it given this team and the desire to win ... but 2 plus bats and 2 plus SP off the FA market would be probably sending them over the 2nd (and maybe 3rd) level if they went for proven quality. Again makes it good for Martinez to stay.
From what I have seen the Padres seem to be saving $52 to $59 million next year in contracts running out, even with Profar, Suarez and Martinez opting in. It looks like they will also be dropping over $70 million off of the luxury tax payroll, since Bell and Manea both count about $10 million more against the tax than they are actually getting paid. Even considering raises the Padres payroll should be dropping at least $30 - $40 million next year. That leaves plenty of money for 1 or 2 starters, especially bottom of the rotation starters. They won't need any more expensive starting quality bats with Profar, Grisham and Soto in the OF, Machado, Tatis, Kim and Crone in the IF, along with Alfaro, Nola and Campusano to cover Catcher and DH. Only a backup IF and backup OF needed.
If the Padres do have the money I would love to see them get Senga from the NPBL for $15-$20 million and maybe re-sign Clevinger for $10 million.
#17 · September 19, 2022, 7:06 pm
OK, here is my calculation of AAV for returnees:
$143.7MM .... contracted for Machado ($30MM); Tatis ($24.3MM); Darvish ($21.5MM); Musgrove ($20MM); Snell ($10MM); Pomeranz ($8.5); Profar ($7.0MM); Kim ($7.0MM); Martinez ($6.4MM); Suarez ($5.5MM); Garcia ($3.5MM);
$50.0MM ... estimated ARB decisions Soto ($25MM); Hader ($14MM); Alfaro ($4.0MM); Hill ($2MM); Cronenworth ($2.0MM); Grisham ($1.0MM); Nola ($1.0MM); Morejon ($1.0MM);
$6.0MM ... estimate for the remaining 8 (at or near minimum) for the 26 man roster
$12.3MM ... payable to Boston for Hosmer
$-1.0MM ... payable from Cubs for Darvish
$. 1.0MM ... buyout of Myers
$20.0MM ... non-26 man roster, benefits; bonus pool
That adds up to $232MM ... $1MM under the $233 threshold.
Can always debate the ARB estimates but not going to be that far off.
Basically the "saved" money is going for the full year of Soto and Hader, Musgrove's new contract, and the Hosmer contract retained.
#18 · September 19, 2022, 8:07 pm
According to Sportrac.com, Tatis is only $19.45M, probably due to his suspension.
#19 · September 20, 2022, 12:59 am
If Hosmer opts out, we owe Boston nothing. That's what I believe he will do since he values himself at more than $13 million a season. More money to play with when that happens.
#20 · September 20, 2022, 3:00 am
Quote from BoosterSD on September 19, 2022, 8:07 pmAccording to Sportrac.com, Tatis is only $19.45M, probably due to his suspension.
My guess is that is a 2022 only adjustment reflecting the suspension on Aug 12th (not being paid for final portion of the season). Under the same logic Tatis’ 2023 AAV would be adjusted for the games he misses in April (something less than 1/5th of the season.)
Should add that not seeing the logic of that level of AAV adjustment by Spotrac or previously with Roster Resource. It appears that they are proportionally adjusting the current AAV for the suspension games as opposed to adjusting the overall AAV for money not paid or the current AAV for the money not spent. Basically think the adjustment is (will be) more than what the Padres “save” in cash payments to Tatis (still at a lower level of pay in 2022) unless the league recalculates the AAV going forward and “increases” it to reflect the cash out over a shorter timeframe.
In this case, might need to wait for the official adjustment for 2023.
Note: Tatis’ 2022 salary was only about $5MM … so the Padres are only saving about a $1MM in cash terms in 2022 and maybe about the same in 2023. Given the purpose of the AAV calculation to reflect cash outflow on a level impact over the contract the adjustment reported makes no sense.