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Since I'm obsessed with a potential Myers trade to free $ for other needs like SP, thought I'd start a thread.

There has been a lot of talk about including prospects in a Myers trade, but I believe only the prospects who are really "untouchable" for us would add sufficient $ savings if included in a trade.  So I think a better & more likely inclusion is young cheap MLB SP; particularly if we are upgrading this position with a signing.

I would go so far as to say this:  Since Myer's total contract is: 3 yrs / 60 MM / 20 AAV, I would not include any player or prospect out in the Myers trade who does not lower the amount owed by at least 10% of the total amount we want the Trading team to take:  Goal 45-60 MM "out", so:  4.5 - 6 MM / 1.5 - 2 AAV.  Think about it.  It wouldn't make sense to include say 3 prospects who totalled only 5 MM in savings above Myers alone.  Each of these guys value "alone" is just too insignificant relative to Myers' contract, but 1 or more of them could explode upward in value, or just have more utility as part of another trade not focused on saving $.

Inclusion in a Myers trade out is the wrong way to use BOTH elite AND presently lesser valued prospect talent.

To me, the only way we could trade Myers is if one of the three or four teams having to do a total rebuild, would take on his contract for one really, really good prospect and a bunch of depth to give their depleted farm system a shot in the arm. Now that we have Pomeranz, if you trade Yates for a really, really top notch prospect, give them Meyers, a plug-in major league starter in Lucchesi, and four or five other prospects for depth: Lawson, Bolanos, Baez, and (take your pick) Potts, or Miller or Ornelas. Something like that. I would not give up Gore, Trammell, Patino, Abrams, Edwards, Campusano, or Morejon. But if it would put the deal over the top, I would include Weathers.

If we could clear enough salary to sign Strasburg it would be worth it. Other than that I am not interested in Baumgarner or Ryu.

Fenn (& Hoffy),  I think it's a mistake to try to "clear" ALL of Myers' salary in a trade.  The reason is, assuming Pads get 'nothing' back but $$ relief,  it's impossible to tell if you "overpaid" in what you had to give in other players/prospects to do so.

The better negotiating approach is to proactively say "we are offering Myers + ex. Lucchesi for a PTBNL; how much are you willing to give us in $", and just pit teams against each other for that specific offer.  They can always counter with other players/prospects in deal.

If top flight SP is really off the table, I'm increasingly inclined to just live with what we've got at SP, but not include any in a Myers trade if don't have to.... i.e. basically just see what Myers is worth alone, and eat the rest of the $ if Preller deems it "good enough".  Myers is worth SOMEthing...  3/36? (12/yr),  3/30?  3/24?  If can't get 8 MM/yr for him I'd just keep & play him.

Will be interesting to see what Castellanos & esp Ozuna get in FA... their market will affect Myers' value.

I expect the salary moved will be subject of a back and forth negotiation ... a bit depending on the other team involved and their payroll / roster situation .... basically no one size fits all.

Not sure moving only a “little” of Myers salary (this winter) is worth all that much if the cost is a legit player that could be used in a different deal or just useful in 2020 for the Padres. Not all that interested in moving Myers just to move Myers. Plus only marginally interested in moving Myers if their is not a plan to productively use the freed up payroll space.

Not really worried about others perception of winning or loosing the trade at some point in the future by trying to compare whatever the Padres do with the money vs. the success of the prospects. As Preller, he has made that judgement call in order to make the trade. Plus he has to factor in win now or heads will roll against the odds of any prospect developing after he is fired.

Still trading prospects will be done ... and good ones ... and we will have to see if they were the right ones to trade.

I doubt whatever happens with Castellanos or Ozuna has much impact on Myers after his 2019 season ... they actually hit in 2019. Myers has to show 2019 is not the real Myers before he gets any traction beyond a $5-8MM player. Sort of the case to keep (and play Myers) to rebuild value / lower liability but may fly against win now mantra.

Not an easy call by Preller with his job on the line to win now ... Padres pushing payroll limits ... team still with upgrade needs ... and apparently no team interested in Myers over the past year. A case to justify paying a lot (arguable if that is an overpay) if it positions the Padres to win now.

If we aren't signing Cole or Strasburg remind me what the reason is to give away prospects just to also give away Myers?

Personally I have no interest in saving Fowler and Seidler money just for it to stay in their pocket.

 

In other words,if we trade Myers and prospects to save $10-$15 mil do you expect that money to be spent on someone to make us better this offseason?

If so....who and where?

We have added 2 outfielders who can get on base against RH pitchers....which was priority 1.

We added a Starter who can (hopefully) get us 175-200 innings in the middle of the rotation.

We added a major league ready LH hitting middle infielder/Utility guy.

Where are we spending this new found $$ just for unloading Myers and prospects?

Or,does AJ already know he "can" and he has too now to appease Ownership after the last few deals that raised payroll about $15 mil?

 

 

Not sure moving only a “little” of Myers salary (this winter) is worth all that much if the cost is a legit player that could be used in a different deal or just useful in 2020 for the Padres. Not all that interested in moving Myers just to move Myers. Plus only marginally interested in moving Myers if their is not a plan to productively use the freed up payroll space.

I'm assuming 140 MM current today payroll is at or very near Pads' limit; i.e. can't add another 5 MM+ contract.

So specifically for a Marte acquisition, would have to separately trade Myers to offset the nearly 10 MM net Marte would cost (less Margot?).

I agree that:  1)  Shouldn't just "dump Myers" without a plan for the $, and 2) HAVE to be able to get to some unknown $ amount "just" for Myers,  for any trade of him alone OR with others to make sense at all.  Don't know what this $/# is for Pads, but guessing it's at the very least 50% of what Marcell Ozuna gets paid.  If can't find 1 team to take at least that amount for Myers we are better off keeping & playing him.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 6, 2019, 12:58 pm

If we aren't signing Cole or Strasburg remind me what the reason is to give away prospects just to also give away Myers?

Personally I have no interest in saving Fowler and Seidler money just for it to stay in their pocket.

I think they have shown that they are willing to put money back into the team. I think they would turn around a sign a Dickerson or trade for Marte/Conforto.

If I'm Preller, I think what I'm weighing is something like this.... which makes more sense:

A)   Sign Ryu @             3 (+1) / 60 as:  16 / 21 / 20 /3 (buyout vs 20) as a FA requiring these moves:

Trade Myers + ?  to save:  30 MM as:  10 / 10 / 10    AND

Trade Davies      to save: 12-13 MM as:  5 / 7-8 / FA         BUT GAIN "Eric Lauer" or better value prospect back in return

Leaves Payroll at 140 MM in 2020.  NL Cy Young runner up is 2020 O.D. starter then:  Richards/Paddack/Lamet/Joey or Q.  No SP acquisitions needed next 5 years.    Net 3-4 MM increase in Ryu 2021 salary easily covered by commitments going away.  Net 10 MM increase in 2022 covered by Pham = FA.   Keep Margot, but one OF spot (RF?) is young, unproven. Gain "Eric Lauer" (or better) value prospect/s back, but possible loss of prospect/s in Myers trade; likely net positive.

B)  Trade for Marte @ 2/24      as:   11.5 / 12.5 / FA   requiring these moves:

Trade Myers ONLY  to save: 24 MM  as:  8 / 8  / 8    AND

Trade Margot + PROSPECT/s to save:   2 / 3 est / 4 est

Leaves Payroll at 140 MM in 2020.  Rotation:  Richards/Paddack/Lamet/Davies/ Joey or Q.   Lose SP Davies & OF Marte in 2 yrs.  Payroll commitment in 2021 similar to  above to Ryu (21) but split to: Marte (12.5) & Davies (7-8).  Marte MUCH > Margot, but one OF spot (RF?) is young, unproven.  Certain net Negative prospect loss; may require additional SP if any SP out in the trade.

A ) Improves SP by Net of: Ryu minus Davies for 2 years plus 1 yr Ryu + likely gain in prospect capital.  Retains Margot.

B)  Improves CF Offense by Marte minus Margot for 2 years plus 1 yr Margot + 15 MM payroll in 2022 unused, but costs prospect/s.  Retains Davies.

Extremely tough call, but don't love the idea of losing say another top 100 prospect for only 2 years of Marte.  Maybe if the Pirates will take the right "quantity" over "quality" deal.

I guess I just don't see a 3rd trade for an outfielder coming so if that indeed is the case the only addition I'd like to see is a difference maker in the rotation.

Unless there is still a way to trade for a significant second baseman.

I don't want to give away Myers AND prospects just to save enough money to sign Brett Anderson.

 

I’m thinking Wil is our opening day RF and that Fowler personally will tell Tingler to play him every day to get his monies worth!

Seriously though, Wil is a fragile dude. He needs to know he can go out there and do his thing, without repurcussions. Tingler by all accounts is the right manager at the right time for Myers.

I’m hoping for 500+ AB’s. He’ll produce. And if he does, we’ll win.

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