Quote from Randy Manese on July 13, 2025, 12:24 pm

Mistake - Mason McCoy played for EP last night.

Quote from brent wolff on July 13, 2025, 1:52 pm

Henry Baez was Texas League pitcher of the month for June and has a 2.08 ERA in 18 starts while averaging nearly a strikeout per inning, with 83 in 86.2 innings and an impressive whip of 1.05 and a ground out compared to air out ratio of 1.44 ground outs per 1 air out.

Has he developed into a possible trade chip the Pads need?  Along with the multiple relief pitchers, hopefully they can come up with a competent LF, such as Harrison Bader from the Twins and a possible underrated catching prospect such as Korey Lee from the White Sox or possibly get Higgy back from the Rangers.

I don't want to give up a ton of prospect capital this season.  We need to start/keep developing some of our younger players to keep the payroll down in my opinion.

What does everyone else think?  Go AJP & Pads!

Quote from Randy Manese on July 14, 2025, 7:48 am

Going into this season the concern with Baez is that while he generally has excellent command and is strong competitor on the mound, none of his pitches (FB (both 2 seam and 4 seam) and split change) were rated as plus and his curve ball was below average.  That brought concerns about swing and miss at the major league level, where batters could just sit on the FB and rake that pitch.

It seems Baez has picked up a little more velocity this year but I haven't seen any recent analysis about his curve ball or another 3rd pitch that he has been using successfully.  If that had been the case, since he is already on the 40-man, the Padres could have called him up for a spot start since on paper he was having a much better season that Waldron or Hart.  So the long answer is that Baez, as a trade chip, probably won't bring in much of a return; he's going to have to show that he can be effective at the major league level since most teams have guys like him that look very good at AA or even AAA but can't bring that success to the majors.

Quote from Randy Manese on July 15, 2025, 10:54 am

Arizona Complex League ends on 7/24 but except for some rehabbing LE players, not many showed enough to get  a late season promotion to LE.  OF Donte Grant and INF Luis De Leon have the best chance with C Yoiber Ocopio an outside possibility.  Don't know what happened with Eguy Rosario, other than being put on the injured list for a very long time - is he done?  ACL pitching staff is the worst in the league by far, but there are always some flashes and maybe a couple guys will be brought up strictly on their potential - with pitchers you never know when they will turn the corner and suddenly become relevant.

Quote from fenn68 on July 15, 2025, 12:43 pm

Not sure how the Padres handle the development process ... and how much roster space the returning rehab players will command ... but this could be a time when they cull out some "non-prospect" minor league players (ones they expect to release before next season) or choose to give some rest for the rest of the season (especially pitchers to the development squad)and make some promotions at all levels to "challenge" the better prospects for the last month and a half.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on July 15, 2025, 1:13 pm

Padres still have to maintain that 165 domestic minor league player limit during the season, however, not sure if draft signees or signed undrafted free agents count against that number until they are actually assigned to a team.  If several of them do make a professional appearance, the Padres easily have players on each on their minor league rosters that can be considered a "non-prospect" so cutting those players should not be difficult.  In particular, position players who are old for their league or who are not even starting regularly are likely gone.  Similarly, injured pitchers attempting to rebound who have lost too much from their skill set or haven't developed enough command or arsenal of pitches as a SP or shown high leverage ability as a RP are likely on the chopping block.

Quote from fenn68 on July 17, 2025, 5:27 am

Always seeking under the radar prospects that might have a chance to help the ML club at some point ... even if just bench support.

So, what about the upside of Kai Roberts? ... first set aside the "too old for this league" reaction and wait until he hits (if he hits) the level that knocks him out of the prospect discussion.

Roberts was drafted last year in the 7th round from Utah. He is 24 for all of 2025. LHH CF ... singles hitter with major speed / base stealing skills. Blasted on the scene in 2024 (age 23) at LE ... 24 games (100 AB) 340/414/478 with an impressive 14 SB and no CS. So at this point small sample size for a too old for the league label.

2025 "overall"  in FW is not impressive in 47 games (156 AB) 250/385/348. However (and this is hard to figure out for a contact speed hitter) his Home vs Away splits are dramatically different. Home in 81 AB ... 185/350/359. Away is 75 AB ... 320/427/440. His base stealing remains with 20 SB (3 CS).

No idea the issue in FW but given this may be the point of moving players up levels ... and SA has no real CF ... should the Padres promote Roberts on his Away stats alone and get a better prospect reading on him in the final two months of 2025? Padres do like to challenge when appropriate.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on July 18, 2025, 7:02 am

Fabian.  Name probably doesn't ring too many bells and I may be the only one still seeing some prospect value in Albert Fabian, especially since he missed almost all of 2024 with a serious leg injury after just starting to crush the ball at Ft. Wayne.  Well, he's back and in a small sample size is doing very well at San Antonio at age 23.  He'll be a free agent after this season so this may be his last year in the organization.  Back to back 16 HRs in 2022 and 2023, which is unusual for a system with few "power" hitters.  If he continues to rake at SA could be pushed to EP before the end of the season to see if he is worth keeping away from free agency.

On the other hand, there is another Fabian, Fabian Alcantara, way down in the Dominican Summer league.  It took him a year to figure it out, but at 19 years old he is tied for the league lead in HR with 7 and 10th in OPS at 1048; also plays a very good CF.  K rate is in the high 20's but also draws walks in the 16% range.  Does this Fabian have a future with the Padres?  Time will tell but look for him in the ACL in 2026 or possibly in LE if he maintains his current numbers for the remainder of 2025.

Quote from fenn68 on July 18, 2025, 7:32 am

Given the lack of OF prospects in the system ... if Fabian continues to show well in SA would expect the Padres to maybe offer a "better" deal to re-sign him as he goes FA. Having a contract ... for enhanced money ... with the organization he is familiar with ... and a clear path to the ML should keep Fabian in the Padres' fold (if they want him).