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#2881 · February 18, 2024, 6:59 am
There have been a lot of trades between teams in the past for International Bonus Signing Money although the Padres have not been one of teams making such a trade until now. Although Dickerson (at 19) may have some upside and is particularly attractive because he is a lefty, Cruz (at 17) was rated one of, if not the best, pitchers on the international list and dubbed a rising star by Baseball America.
As Fenn says, you never know what you have with international prospects and draftees until a couple of years at least down the road. Physical growth, injury and lack of dedication to craft are but a few of the things that can make a prospect fall from a high projection to out of baseball - pitchers are especially vulnerable. Jarlin Susana was one of the top international pitchers signed by the Padres before traded to Washington - still has top shelf projectable stuff but having a hard time finding the plate on a consistent basis. Let's see how far Dickerson and Cruz progress as those years go by.
#2882 · February 18, 2024, 8:14 am
One way to look at this is that De Vries and Cruz were covered by the initial allocation and the $250K from the Carillo trade.
Then the Padres traded Dickerson (a 12th round pick who is 19 and yet to pitch in the minors) for somewhere between 5-10 international prospects age 16-17. Keep in mind once past the top international prospects, $50K to $100K is still a quality prospect. So, given a long long way before even the upper minors … Padres just increased the odds of getting a ML impact piece maybe by tenfold.
#2883 · February 18, 2024, 11:48 am
I saw a UT article about the trades that mentioned there are 4 players from MLB.com's top 50 who are still unsigned. Kennew Blanco was ranked 9th, Raymel Ortiz was 26th, Jeremy Denaud was 40th and Anderson Paula was 49th. There was also an article on the Athletic a little while back about a bunch of deals falling apart over age and identity fraud concerns. Maybe we have a deal in place with somebody we didn't think would be available contingent on acquiring enough money.
#2884 · February 21, 2024, 1:31 pm
Padres finally announce the signing of Humberto Cruz today for $750,000. That's the most they have shelled out for a pitcher since Jarlin Susana got 1.7M in January 2022. Next highest amounts were for Braian Salazar ($500,000 in 2022) and Bradgley Rodriguez ($350,000 in 2021). Both of these two pitchers have been injured and pitched few innings since signing. Rodriguez pitched 24.2 innings in 2021 and has not pitched since; Salazar pitched 14.2 innings in 2022 and only 8 innings in 2023.
Pitchers are a huge gamble when taken so young but the Padres seem to have gotten a lot better identifying interesting arms in the past year or so, therefore, I'm hopeful that Cruz stays healthy and shows he's worth the money.
#2885 · February 21, 2024, 6:48 pm
17 years old and throwing 91-94? As he continues to grow/fill out, I imagine his velo should tick up even higher and appears to already have 3 good pitches. East Village Times had a nice write up on him. Might be a good prospect, him and Dickerson will forever be connected
#2886 · March 9, 2024, 8:29 am
Just a few comments on the David Jay article on Sleeper Hitters in the Padres System: I have not seen Carlos Rodriguez or Yendry Rojas play but have seen the others on Milb.tv or in person. For those of you who participated in picking out a sleeper candidate on the Lake Elsinore team last year, I had Fabian and he did pretty well. This might be his last year in the system before free agency and can't seem to get over the hump at High A. That seems to be Zavala's problem also, but Zavala is more than 2 years younger than Fabian so Fabian's time is running out at 22 going onto 23. Fabian was tried at 1b, but now is pretty much relegated to the corner OF spots, which he barely plays adequately, or DH. He'll almost have to show the same improvement that Pauley did at Ft. Wayne, but his approach will likely not allow him to do it - a make or break year, but odds are against him.
I like both Linares and Cedeno to show well if given playing time. A lot of people have written them off as prospects but they have both shown well for weeks at a time in the past year. Padres' catching prospects are stacked, so it may be tough for Linares to get some time behind the plate unless he shows enough to start at Ft. Wayne, where Cedeno is likely to be at the beginning of the season. Cedeno could end up at San Antonio with a good start at High A.
You have to love diminutive Ripken Reyes! An all-out hustle guy who is pursing an advanced degree (PhD) at USD. What is not mentioned in his write-up is the ridiculous number of times he was hit by a pitch last year - got to be a minor league record or close to it. He can hold his own on many defensive spots but does not have that strong an arm. This is the kind of glue player that lots of teams would love to have on their side.
Two other deep in the weeds sleepers I would pick out are ss-2b Ismael Javier (way down in the Dominican Summer League) and OF Juan Murillo from the Arizona Complex League. Javier showed impressive hard contact for a little guy, 5:08, 160, but would like to see him get that BA up to at least .300 from .280; since he played last year at 17, more may be coming. Murillo seemed to take a half-step back from an impressive debut last year, but still did enough (I thought) to warrant a call-up to Lake Elsinore after hitting .299 with an .842 OPS. On the other hand, Romeo Sanabria was having an excellent year at the Complex, but only got called up very late, so it might have been an organizational thing not to rush Murillo. Would like to see Murillo in the LE OF, where he should have a chance to play regularly. Could have a very interesting OF at LE with Salinas in LF, Head in CF and Murillo in RF.
#2887 · March 9, 2024, 5:54 pm
MLB.com's #4 Farm System! Up from #28 mid-22, #23 a year ago, and #9 mid-23!
4. San Diego Padres
2023 midseason rank: 9
2023 preseason rank: 23
2022 midseason rank: 28
2022 preseason rank: 17
#2888 · March 13, 2024, 3:35 am
It is going to be interesting in how the Padres handle De Vries … expect we see something similar to Salas considering in January he signed … came to the US for the first time … got into back field games immediately … and yesterday got a token look at the end for the “A” exhibition game. That is a very very aggressive handling in basically two months.
If the Padres’ confidence is warranted … 2026 ML debut is not out of the question.
Wonder what that does for the desire to extend Kim? Or at least how high they will go if they do. Will we see De Vries end up taking the Tatis - Merrill route and end up in the OF? An OF of converted SS … De Vries - Merrill - Tatis would be an interesting talking point with an INF of Machado - Kim - Bogaerts - Cronenworth all of whom started out as SS.
Hopefully the Padres are right … and we get s star out of De Vries.
#2889 · March 13, 2024, 8:58 am
Kim is almost 2 years younger than Cronenworth. In my opinion, they extend Kim and by 2026 the decision is to trade Cronenworth and move Bogaerts to 1b. Bogaerts is a big man - almost 6:03 and 220 pounds - at 33 years of age (in 2026), he might be more willing to take a position that requires less exposure to injury and make the permanent move to 1b. By 2026, we can assume we have a taker for Cronenworth's salary given his value around the INF , LH bat and (hopefully) regaining at least league average offensive production for a 2b. This will free up the money to take care of Kim for the length of his anticipated contract.
I believe DeVries stays at short with Kim moving back to 2b. DeVries projects to be a very sure handed middle infielder with excellent range and a strong arm. His switch-hitting will make up for the loss of Cronenworth's LH bat. Bogaerts move to 1st base also opens up a part-time slot at 1b/dh for Pauley or Martorella, both LH bats. Don't think DeVries comes up before 2026, but Cronenworth could be on the move as early as this year (although he would really have to be on a dynamic offensive resurgence to make that happen). More than likely, it will happen after the 2024 season and we'll probably ease in Pauley/Martorella/Campusano at 1b to accommodate Salas splitting catching duties with Campusano for 2025.
As interesting as this is, watch the young pitching - particularly if we are very fortunate and Sasaki wants to sign with us after his 2024 season in Japan.
#2890 · March 13, 2024, 4:15 pm
Last couple of days been impressed with what I've seen of Sam Zavala. Covers a lot of ground in the OF and got off at least 1 good throw to home plate that was right on the money with a lot of velocity. Looks like he's toned down his high leg kick and seems more balanced at the plate. I look for him to have a very good year at Ft. Wayne along with a couple of other OF's who could make some noise in Homer Bush, Jr. and Tyler Robertson - maybe one of the most athletic OF's in all of the minors.