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Manny Machado signs with Padres!!!!!
#51 · February 20, 2019, 11:55 am
Quote from LynchMob on February 20, 2019, 10:58 amVery much worth reading ... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-padres-are-actually-signing-manny-machado/
It's got Manny's projections for the next 10 years ...
Manny Machado 10-Year ZiPS
Year BA OBP SLG G WAR 2019 .281 .348 .501 156 5.7 2020 .279 .348 .503 152 5.4 2021 .277 .348 .503 149 5.2 2022 .276 .346 .503 145 5.0 2023 .276 .345 .494 140 4.5 2024 .273 .341 .483 135 4.0 2025 .270 .337 .469 129 3.4 2026 .265 .330 .449 122 2.7 2027 .259 .321 .428 114 1.9 2028 .251 .310 .401 106 1.0 And this in the comments ...
Machado’s home / road split is not only massive but clearly attributable to Camden Yards given that it comes almost entirely from extra power at home and Camden Yards has consistently been a top five park for right-handed power. Machado has hit 106 home runs at home versus 69 on the road. His slugging percentage is .533 at home versus .443 on the road. His wRC+ is 137 at home versus 104 on the road. Given that San Diego suppresses right handed power, it is extremely likely that Manny Machado will not come anywhere close to the batting production that San Diego paid for.
I have a feeling AJ Preller just might be aware of the home/road splits & has factored that in... 🙂
I would be ecstatic with the 1st 5 years here. Even if MM gets 175 MM the 1st 5 years (see new MM contract thread), that would be AVG 5 WAR/yr x 5 = 25 = 7.0 MM per WAR for 5 years.... isn't that the going rate? At that rate of production, it's highly likely he would opt out of the 5/125 remaining contract. Even if he didn't, not BONKERS to pay about 10 MM per WAR last 5 years given what came before...
Will be pretty tough to outperform the 1st 5 years projections in PETCO, but I think there's a good chance he significantly outperforms the 2nd 5 years projections here... remember, DH on the way.
#52 · February 20, 2019, 12:33 pm
Moved this as I’m afraid it will get lost.
Brian Connelly:
“Interesting to speculate on how MM’s contract $$ will be structured given what we already know: 5 yr opt out & No $ deferred.
Biggest questions to me are: 1) Total & structure of signing bonus, 2) % of total $$ in first vs. last 5 years given the opt out. Here’s my guesses:
23/10, 26/7, 28/5, 30/3, 33 (165 MM = 55%) 27 x 5 (135 MM = 45%)
1) 25 MM Signing Bonus spread out over 4 years. AAV & actual total 1st 5 yrs: 33 MM drops to 27 MM last 5 years. Feels like right compromise between putting too much in the 1st 5 years, but should & will have to logically be weighted that way.
2) Puts Payroll at 120 MM this year, 95 MM+ for just 6 players under contract in 2020. Such a massive contract instinctively makes us long time Pads penny-pinching payroll watchers feel like these are impossible, but think it really signals ownership is willing to set the bar significantly higher than in the past to field good, competitive teams. Certainly 125 MM range, likely 130-135, possible max….? 140? 150?? (when you KNOW-not think-you have a good team).”
#53 · February 20, 2019, 12:39 pm
Also shows we are really depending on our prospects coming through.
We(fans) are already just assuming Tatis and Urias will come in and be stars offensively and defensively....obviously the Padres are too.
We have enough good pitching prospects you have to believe several will pan out and produce in a major league rotation....but what if Tatis turns out to only be average and Urias less?
Its not far fetched.
The Machado signing has made it even “more” important that the Farm system pays off as we won’t be able to sign many other expensive free agents...if any,or even trade for guys who have large salaries.
It’s a gamble but also shows their level of confidence in our prospects.
#54 · February 20, 2019, 12:54 pm
Am I crazy but
Harper 10/320
Trade Myers to Philly for De Los Santos + intl a slot $$ (from 2020 to 2023 Myers / Harper only +$12 mil) so basically upgrading OF with only +$12 mil....
SP
1. Trade for Stroman
2. Joey L
3. De Los
4. E. Lauer
5. Stroman
...I like it...
#55 · February 20, 2019, 2:00 pm
Some very positive comments on the signing from veteran, respected ESPN baseball reporter Pedro Gomez. First his opinion of Machado's defense is on a par with Arenado's defense then added he has seen Tatis at SS and the potential of Hosmer - Urias - Tatis - Machado could have all four in contention for Gold Gloves. (pitchers must love hearing that).
Overall sees him as one of the top 5 (don't as who the others are) players in MLB.
=====
#56 · February 20, 2019, 2:44 pm
I’m almost starting to feel sorry for Sox fans.
876 pages in their “Padres sign Manny Machado” thread.
I have yet to see a post saying we over paid or they dodged a bullet.
To a fan they are upset the Sox didn’t match or offer more than the Padres did.
So many saying they aren’t renewing season tix....but many are talking about their Farm system too.
I almost want to sign up so I can gloat that we have Machado....Tatis....AND an even better Farm system!
Almost.
#57 · February 20, 2019, 3:16 pm
Quote from David Nevin on February 20, 2019, 12:39 pmAlso shows we are really depending on our prospects coming through.
We(fans) are already just assuming Tatis and Urias will come in and be stars offensively and defensively....obviously the Padres are too.
We have enough good pitching prospects you have to believe several will pan out and produce in a major league rotation....but what if Tatis turns out to only be average and Urias less?
Its not far fetched.
The Machado signing has made it even “more” important that the Farm system pays off as we won’t be able to sign many other expensive free agents...if any,or even trade for guys who have large salaries.
It’s a gamble but also shows their level of confidence in our prospects.
Every team in our position has to depend on their biggest prospects coming through, there is no getting around that. We did get lucky that we got a just about to enter his prime superstar though, not many in our position get that.
#58 · February 20, 2019, 9:41 pm
Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 20, 2019, 12:54 pmAm I crazy but
Harper 10/320
Trade Myers to Philly for De Los Santos + intl a slot $$ (from 2020 to 2023 Myers / Harper only +$12 mil) so basically upgrading OF with only +$12 mil....
SP
1. Trade for Stroman
2. Joey L
3. De Los
4. E. Lauer
5. Stroman
...I like it...
Yes you are
Stromen is a head case...period
Any Pitcher not in camp yet is behind so any FA play is mid to late april at the earliest
Besides...Harper wants at least 326 mil
PASS
#59 · February 21, 2019, 4:18 pm
Quote from LynchMob on February 20, 2019, 9:11 amDid I miss something? Why isn't anyone asking the obvious question ...
WHEN WILL THE MACHADO SIGNING BE OFFICIAL?
Until it is ... what are the chances it doesn't happen? Still feels eerily close to 50/50 to me
You can breath easier Lynch... signing is official
https://www.mlb.com/padres/news/manny-machado-10-year-deal-becomes-official
#60 · February 21, 2019, 4:46 pm
Quote from padscharg on February 21, 2019, 4:18 pmQuote from LynchMob on February 20, 2019, 9:11 amDid I miss something? Why isn't anyone asking the obvious question ...
WHEN WILL THE MACHADO SIGNING BE OFFICIAL?
Until it is ... what are the chances it doesn't happen? Still feels eerily close to 50/50 to me
You can breath easier Lynch... signing is official
https://www.mlb.com/padres/news/manny-machado-10-year-deal-becomes-official
Ah, that does feel better 🙂
2020 ... and BEYOND!