Quote from Notmyopic on February 20, 2019, 9:34 am

I don't see the need for a one year place holder.  Would prefer to see Allen called up quick, if Nix can make the adjustments, Paddack called up quick.  Possibly guys like Morejon and Baez and Quantrill towards the end of the year depending on how they do.  I am not going to complain if we get a placeholder, just don't personally think we need one as we are not going to the playoffs this year and Machado doesn't change that.

Quote from Notmyopic on February 20, 2019, 9:35 am

Quote from Notmyopic on February 20, 2019, 9:34 am

I don't see the need for a one year place holder.  Would prefer to see Allen called up quick, if Nix can make the adjustments, Paddack called up quick.  Possibly guys like Morejon and Baez and Quantrill towards the end of the year depending on how they do.  I am not going to complain if we get a placeholder, just don't personally think we need one as we are not going to the playoffs this year and Machado doesn't change that.

Took them two days to announce Hosmer officially.  Everything everyone is saying is it is done.  I am trusting that but I understand the paranoia.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on February 20, 2019, 9:52 am

I think Gio is holding out for more than anyone wants to give him in both years and money. Maybe he thinks he'll get better offers once Keuchel signs. If he gets to the point that he's willing to take a 1 year deal I bet we'll be in the mix. I wouldn't mind taking a flyer on Ervin Santana or Clay Buchholz if they're healthy either. Beyond that I don't think there is much left on the market.

Also for what it's worth AJ Cassavell says the internal preference is to see what they have in the young pitchers.

Quote from Booster SD on February 20, 2019, 9:54 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 20, 2019, 8:47 am

Quote from Notmyopic on February 20, 2019, 12:14 am

We will!  But let's raise the bar on the SP equivalent of Ty France (Bryan Mitchell?) and find a guy like Gio Gonzalez (even better a RH equivalent... is there one??) that can placehold for 1 year the spot that is essentially being held for Garrett Richards.  Force guys to compete for the other 4 spots.  Can't honestly say unproven guys like Lucchesi & Lauer really are "competing" for a rotation spot right now.

 

James Shields is still out there!! 🙂

 

Quote from Booster SD on February 20, 2019, 9:55 am

Quote from LynchMob on February 20, 2019, 9:11 am

Did I miss something?  Why isn't anyone asking the obvious question ...

WHEN WILL THE MACHADO SIGNING BE OFFICIAL?

Until it is ... what are the chances it doesn't happen?  Still feels eerily close to 50/50 to me

Physicals are supposed to happen today and tomorrow, so probably Friday signing and a Sautrday appearance in camp.

Quote from LynchMob on February 20, 2019, 10:05 am

http://www.knbr.com/2019/02/19/padres-executive-denies-multiple-reports-that-club-has-signed-machado-to-300-million-deal-report/

KenR sez ... This likely is semantics. Machado has not passed a physical and the two sides have not finalized language. But they are in agreement on financial terms.

Quote from fenn68 on February 20, 2019, 10:42 am

I guess I could go for a decent placeholder SP if it is at a bargain price for 1 year (maybe a chance to flip at the trade deadline).

As it stands, see them giving Lucchesi - Lauer - Strahm long leashes to prove themselves at the start of the season. It would be the next two slots that will be volatile with not very impressive incumbents and maybe not quite ready prospects.

As of now the incumbents are Mitchell, Erlin, and Perdomo and even if two started the season in the rotation at least one (probably two) would be bumped in a month or so. Then insert the prospects.

Allen might be the first in IF he does not nail a spot out of ST. He did pitch 149 innings last season (121 in AA / 28 in AAA) and was effective. So pretty well set to move up given it is "easier" for pitchers to make the jump from AA.

Nix probably will get another early shot (he is on the 40 man) having pitched effectively in his 59 minor league innings last year (mainly AA) but had some really bad ML outings (and some very good) in his 42 ML innings. This may be the sort out time on Nix as a future starter.

Paddack is apparently going to be on "controlled" innings having only gone 90 last year and mostly in A+. Would not be surprised to see him have controlled 1/2 in AAA and pop up the ML mid to late season with little restrictions.

Quantrill is a bit of a wild card. He had the workload of 148 innings last season (most in AA but 31 effective innings in AAA). If he continues his 2018 AAA performance level he may sneak in if others fail.

Also need to be realistic and any of Lucchesi - Lauer - Strahm can flame out or get injured so some redundancy is prudent.

Quote from LynchMob on February 20, 2019, 10:58 am

Very much worth reading ... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-padres-are-actually-signing-manny-machado/

It's got Manny's projections for the next 10 years ...

Manny Machado 10-Year ZiPS

Year	BA	OBP	SLG	G	WAR
2019	.281	.348	.501	156	5.7
2020	.279	.348	.503	152	5.4
2021	.277	.348	.503	149	5.2
2022	.276	.346	.503	145	5.0
2023	.276	.345	.494	140	4.5
2024	.273	.341	.483	135	4.0
2025	.270	.337	.469	129	3.4
2026	.265	.330	.449	122	2.7
2027	.259	.321	.428	114	1.9
2028	.251	.310	.401	106	1.0

And this in the comments ...

Machado’s home / road split is not only massive but clearly attributable to Camden Yards given that it comes almost entirely from extra power at home and Camden Yards has consistently been a top five park for right-handed power. Machado has hit 106 home runs at home versus 69 on the road. His slugging percentage is .533 at home versus .443 on the road. His wRC+ is 137 at home versus 104 on the road. Given that San Diego suppresses right handed power, it is extremely likely that Manny Machado will not come anywhere close to the batting production that San Diego paid for.

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 20, 2019, 11:37 am

Quote from Booster SD on February 20, 2019, 9:54 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 20, 2019, 8:47 am

Quote from Notmyopic on February 20, 2019, 12:14 am

We will!  But let's raise the bar on the SP equivalent of Ty France (Bryan Mitchell?) and find a guy like Gio Gonzalez (even better a RH equivalent... is there one??) that can placehold for 1 year the spot that is essentially being held for Garrett Richards.  Force guys to compete for the other 4 spots.  Can't honestly say unproven guys like Lucchesi & Lauer really are "competing" for a rotation spot right now.

 

James Shields is still out there!!

 

I KNOW I'll stand alone saying that idea is less insane than it sounds.  I feel like there's a (justifiable) giddy euphoria that is completely overlooking the lack of our SP's experience.  If you add up the MAX IP each guy can get to assuming (ass-u-me) EVERYONE performs and NO ONE gets injured (took M. Diaz 1 day of camp to require Surgery) we might have enough total innings (counting innings pitched in Minors too)...  to get through the year, but this is a ridiculous assumption.  I get the Shields baggage, Fowler comments, etc.  Maybe he wouldn't sign here at any price.  But a competitive RH vet who's a natural leader wouldn't be the worst thing for all the kids.

I just feel "accepting" our current rotation is exactly the same as "accepting" that Ty France or insert Minors FA here is our starting 3B.  Not saying trade for Kluber (some % chance it could happen, but IMO very low... right now) or sign Keuchel.  Saying we've already allocated 1 rotation spot to a veteran - next year.  Find a vet to fill it AT LEAST to start the year & lock in service time on Logan Allen, Paddack etc.  We're going to make all our guys compete for "only" 4 spots next year, why not this year?  Guys who are not clearly established MLB players are in essence being handed starting roles.

Bar has been raised.  Even if our expectations are modest this year like + 10 wins or getting to .500, does anyone really want to go 4-16 to start Machado's 1st year if the "kids" are nervous & not in a groove from day 1, or wheels come off midseason with a couple of injuries at some point...   Shields or G. Gonzalez can help THIS specific team & situation a lot more than their WAR suggests..