Quote from 84padres on April 2, 2025, 6:38 am

We will need to find lots of pitching

Quote from Randy Manese on April 2, 2025, 7:38 am

This kid is for real.  When I watched him play in Lake Elsinore with Wood a couple of years ago, it was obvious he was something special.  A true baseball rat, who just loves going on the field and competing and brings great energy and understated leadership to the line-up.  Still would like to see him walk more but can't argue with the results so far.  I'm hoping he starts stealing bases and becomes at least a 30 HR/20 SB guy.

The other extension I'd like to see is with King.  Shildt raves about Cease and his stuff, but King has that calmness that sometimes Cease loses and gets out of rhythm.  King already has an option for 2026, but I'd like the Padres to tear that up and give him something along the lines of what Musgrove got, which would be a hometown advantage and below what he likely would get in free agency.  King seems to wants to stay here so if that happens, we should be okay with King, Musgrove and Pivetta in the top 3 spots of our rotation.

Quote from fenn68 on April 2, 2025, 8:24 am

With Boras as his agent ... Cease is very likely to go for the BIG deal and will move on. Agree King is the better bet to extend but very unlikely to take a Musgrove deal ($20MM AAV) ... time (inflation) just raises the price of a "similar" deal. How much more ... depends how well he does in 2025 and if like 2024 think upper 20s in AAV at a minimum.

Never know on the Padres financial 5 year plan but possible (with Cease gone) they still may have to debate extensions for King vs Arraez. Note: the King 2026 option is a MUTUAL option ... so will be declined by King to become a FA.

to start 2026: King (5 years? if extended); Pivetta (1 year then opt out); Musgrove (2 years); Darvish (3 years) is a pretty good distribution and sequence of needing replacements. Then the current mix: Hart (1 year); Vasquez (5 years); Kolek (5 years); Waldron (4 years). Prospects will have time to develop.

Mayfield, Bateman, H.Cruz, Lowe, Lizzaraga, etc. need to develop at least on "schedule".

Quote from Jeremy Hill on April 2, 2025, 10:17 am

Really good news. With payroll where it's at I wasn't sure we would see any big commitments like this in the post Peter Seidler era. I'm pleasantly surprised.

Quote from MrPadre19 on April 2, 2025, 11:20 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 14, 2024, 8:08 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 14, 2024, 7:32 am

At one point I was advocating trading this kid for Pitching.This was before we got Cease and King and before I knew they had plans for him to replace Grish.

Also,I knew he was a great prospect but "no one" knew he would hit the ground running like he has and stay good consistently all season.He doesn't seem to have a huge weakness at the plate pitchers can exploit either....so i don't think there will be a sophomore slump coming in '25.But you never know....last years two darlings haven't been great this season(Jrod/Carroll).They haven't been "bad" but they sure didn't impress in the first half.

I don't think there's any way we extend Merrill until after next season myself.

 

 

 

Agree they will not pursue and extension until after 2025 (maybe after 2026) ... probably more to dance around the Luxury Tax issues in 2025 and depending what they do with the FA coming soon the tax issues in 2026.

If they take Merrill in 2025 and 2026 at league minimum ... sure the forward AAV on an extension will be higher (but less an issue after 2026) ... and higher if Merrill continues to produce at current the current level. Padres can live with that for his talent level.

Extending Merrill should be the #1 priority (long term view) at some point but that has impact (be impacted by) how they deal with the major FA (2025: Profar, Kim, Scott, Higashioka, Diaz, Solano, Peralta, Perez) (2026: Arraez, Cease, King, Suarez, Wade). Sure some are marginal but others could command big deals and/or replacements may command good contracts. Then roll all that in with the unknown of the Padres financial position. Keeping Merrill likely will make the Padres pass on keeping many of the bigger FA on long term deals.

Did an off the cuff shot at the 2025 payroll assuming projected arbitration decisions and not signing any of the Padre FA (or replacements above minimum) ... comes to about $7MM+/- under the CBT ... not a lot to work with and should mean the Padres will exceed the CBT in 2025. 2026's FA (plus Hosmer off the books) gives a lot of room but at the same time some large gaps in the roster (especially SP after Musgrove and Darvish).

All that unknown and must make decisions may just force the Padres to delay attempting to extend Merrill for a few years.

Guess we were both wrong Fenn...and I'm so glad.

 

Quote from fenn68 on April 2, 2025, 12:33 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on April 2, 2025, 11:20 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 14, 2024, 8:08 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 14, 2024, 7:32 am

At one point I was advocating trading this kid for Pitching.This was before we got Cease and King and before I knew they had plans for him to replace Grish.

Also,I knew he was a great prospect but "no one" knew he would hit the ground running like he has and stay good consistently all season.He doesn't seem to have a huge weakness at the plate pitchers can exploit either....so i don't think there will be a sophomore slump coming in '25.But you never know....last years two darlings haven't been great this season(Jrod/Carroll).They haven't been "bad" but they sure didn't impress in the first half.

I don't think there's any way we extend Merrill until after next season myself.

 

 

 

Agree they will not pursue and extension until after 2025 (maybe after 2026) ... probably more to dance around the Luxury Tax issues in 2025 and depending what they do with the FA coming soon the tax issues in 2026.

If they take Merrill in 2025 and 2026 at league minimum ... sure the forward AAV on an extension will be higher (but less an issue after 2026) ... and higher if Merrill continues to produce at current the current level. Padres can live with that for his talent level.

Extending Merrill should be the #1 priority (long term view) at some point but that has impact (be impacted by) how they deal with the major FA (2025: Profar, Kim, Scott, Higashioka, Diaz, Solano, Peralta, Perez) (2026: Arraez, Cease, King, Suarez, Wade). Sure some are marginal but others could command big deals and/or replacements may command good contracts. Then roll all that in with the unknown of the Padres financial position. Keeping Merrill likely will make the Padres pass on keeping many of the bigger FA on long term deals.

Did an off the cuff shot at the 2025 payroll assuming projected arbitration decisions and not signing any of the Padre FA (or replacements above minimum) ... comes to about $7MM+/- under the CBT ... not a lot to work with and should mean the Padres will exceed the CBT in 2025. 2026's FA (plus Hosmer off the books) gives a lot of room but at the same time some large gaps in the roster (especially SP after Musgrove and Darvish).

All that unknown and must make decisions may just force the Padres to delay attempting to extend Merrill for a few years.

Guess we were both wrong Fenn...and I'm so glad.

 

On this one happy to be wrong.

Quote from fenn68 on April 2, 2025, 12:59 pm

A pretty team friendly contract ... that starts next year.

1. The AAV for luxury tax purposes is only $15MM then a bit more if incentives kick in. That really helps staying under as the years move on.
2. The Cash flow is very back loaded ... the bought out 4 ARB years are nice and low which should help dealing with the filling in the FA after 2025.

 

Quote from 84padres on April 3, 2025, 3:46 am

I would love to extend King . Next year Cease and Arraez are gone saving enough $ to pay King . De Vries (hopefully) will be ready next year or 2027 moving Xander to 1st or 2nd with Jake to 1st . I would rather see Xander at 1st but he would prefer 2nd .

Quote from fenn68 on April 3, 2025, 4:56 am

Quote from 84padres on April 3, 2025, 3:46 am

I would love to extend King . Next year Cease and Arraez are gone saving enough $ to pay King . De Vries (hopefully) will be ready next year or 2027 moving Xander to 1st or 2nd with Jake to 1st . I would rather see Xander at 1st but he would prefer 2nd .

The next moves will be interesting.

Guessing extending Arraez may be the easiest (and cheapest) as his side may understand that a lot of teams don't favor his skill set (at least for a long term big money deal). However, Padres do (and Arraez likes the Padres). He is the "safe" extension as a proven hitter.

If King is not going for the max ... can see Preller signing him and Arraez long term ... then going low end on filling in the rest of the blanks for the coming years.

The wild card is how both sides view the complication of the 2027 lockout and the rules under the new CBA starting in 2027.

As for DeVries, not expecting him to be ready in 2026 to actually help a "contender". Actually if you want long control of DeVries, don't put him on the roster until after the 2027 lockout (and 2027 does not count as a full year of service time). In 2026 can live with Bogaerts at SS. * Tatis a top prospect SS -> RF; Merrill a top prospect SS -> CF; ... DeVries a top prospect SS -> LF????

DeVries - Merrill - Tatis as the OF (2028-2033) all in their prime might be "compelling".