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Jackson Merrill
#51 · September 9, 2024, 12:36 pm
I would guess that the Padres could extend Merrill even if they waited a few years ... just may cost more for those FA years and end up with a higher AAV. With the next two seasons at minimum out of the calculation and the Padres assuming less risk (after seeing two more years of performance) ... Merrill's "value" in a contract will rise if he performs anywhere near his 2024.
If they could delay an extension deal until 2027 that may be best for the Padres in keeping the luxury tax under control for 2026. With the 2025 arbitration decisions (Arraez, Cease, King) and needing to re-sign (or replace) Profar, Kim, Scott, Higashioka, Solano, Peralta, Diaz ... almost impossible to remain under the tax threshold even with Merrill at minimum. 2026 sees the need to re-sign (or replace) Cease, King, Arraez, and Suarez (will opt out) will again make it difficult to stay under the tax level.
So, carry Merrill at minimum for 2025 and (not sure on the calculation under current rules) but in 2026 he may be eligible for an early arbitration year ... still relative low cost. After that, expect an AAV in the $25-30MM range which the Padres could probably fit in. Remember we don't know the changes that may come out of the next CBA (2027?)
One thing at a time ... let's get Merrill that ROY!
#52 · September 10, 2024, 11:20 am
I think you would look at the Corbin Carroll and Julio Rodriguez extensions to get an idea of what a Merrill extension might look like. Rodriguez signed for 7/119.3m with a complicated set of options that could add 5, 8 or 10 years and as much as 350m to the deal. Worst case he is guaranteed 5/90 so it's treated like 12/209.3 for luxury tax purposes making the AAV $17,441,667.
Carroll signed for 8/111m with a 28m club option for a 9th season. His AAV is 13.875m. Let's split the difference and say a similar deal for Merrill would bump his AAV up to at least 15m. By waiting until after 2025 that would be largely offset by Hosmer's money coming off the books. It also gives you another year to evaluate. Carroll is heating up again lately, but his overall numbers are down significantly. Rodriguez was great in the first year of his new deal, but his numbers are also down significantly here in year 2.
I agree with Booster. Wait until after 2025. It lets you take advantage of another pre-arb minimal salary year in a season where you're going to need every dollar you can get. It also lets you see another season of his performance to feel more confident making that decision. I think Merrill is going to be a stud for a long time. A strong rookie season doesn't always guarantee a strong future though.
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brent wolff
#53 · September 10, 2024, 11:41 am
Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 10, 2024, 11:20 amI think you would look at the Corbin Carroll and Julio Rodriguez extensions to get an idea of what a Merrill extension might look like. Rodriguez signed for 7/119.3m with a complicated set of options that could add 5, 8 or 10 years and as much as 350m to the deal. Worst case he is guaranteed 5/90 so it's treated like 12/209.3 for luxury tax purposes making the AAV $17,441,667.
Carroll signed for 8/111m with a 28m club option for a 9th season. His AAV is 13.875m. Let's split the difference and say a similar deal for Merrill would bump his AAV up to at least 15m. By waiting until after 2025 that would be largely offset by Hosmer's money coming off the books. It also gives you another year to evaluate. Carroll is heating up again lately, but his overall numbers are down significantly. Rodriguez was great in the first year of his new deal, but his numbers are also down significantly here in year 2.
I agree with Booster. Wait until after 2025. It lets you take advantage of another pre-arb minimal salary year in a season where you're going to need every dollar you can get. It also lets you see another season of his performance to feel more confident making that decision. I think Merrill is going to be a stud for a long time. A strong rookie season doesn't always guarantee a strong future though.
For you old timers ... Joe Charboneau.
#54 · September 10, 2024, 11:49 am
Agree wait until at least after 2025 ... maybe after 2026 which also could be a second consecutive luxury tax depending on how the Padres handle all the FA in the next two years (that without a Merrill extension could cross the line).
Merrill's incremental AAV (assuming the same years are covered) by waiting is not going to be all that much in the big picture (maybe $5MM higher +/-).
A lot of IF / THEN moves that impact the thinking on the timing on Merrill.
#55 · September 14, 2024, 7:13 am
I'm linking an article from The Athletic (for those of you who subscribe) by Dennis Lin, about the surprising development of "Action" Jackson, he is truly having a histroric season for a 21 year old OF. Enjoy, it is a great read!
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5749081/2024/09/09/jackson-merrill-rookie-development-padres/
#56 · September 14, 2024, 7:32 am
At one point I was advocating trading this kid for Pitching.This was before we got Cease and King and before I knew they had plans for him to replace Grish.
Also,I knew he was a great prospect but "no one" knew he would hit the ground running like he has and stay good consistently all season.He doesn't seem to have a huge weakness at the plate pitchers can exploit either....so i don't think there will be a sophomore slump coming in '25.But you never know....last years two darlings haven't been great this season(Jrod/Carroll).They haven't been "bad" but they sure didn't impress in the first half.
I don't think there's any way we extend Merrill until after next season myself.
#57 · September 14, 2024, 8:08 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on September 14, 2024, 7:32 amAt one point I was advocating trading this kid for Pitching.This was before we got Cease and King and before I knew they had plans for him to replace Grish.
Also,I knew he was a great prospect but "no one" knew he would hit the ground running like he has and stay good consistently all season.He doesn't seem to have a huge weakness at the plate pitchers can exploit either....so i don't think there will be a sophomore slump coming in '25.But you never know....last years two darlings haven't been great this season(Jrod/Carroll).They haven't been "bad" but they sure didn't impress in the first half.
I don't think there's any way we extend Merrill until after next season myself.
Agree they will not pursue and extension until after 2025 (maybe after 2026) ... probably more to dance around the Luxury Tax issues in 2025 and depending what they do with the FA coming soon the tax issues in 2026.
If they take Merrill in 2025 and 2026 at league minimum ... sure the forward AAV on an extension will be higher (but less an issue after 2026) ... and higher if Merrill continues to produce at current the current level. Padres can live with that for his talent level.
Extending Merrill should be the #1 priority (long term view) at some point but that has impact (be impacted by) how they deal with the major FA (2025: Profar, Kim, Scott, Higashioka, Diaz, Solano, Peralta, Perez) (2026: Arraez, Cease, King, Suarez, Wade). Sure some are marginal but others could command big deals and/or replacements may command good contracts. Then roll all that in with the unknown of the Padres financial position. Keeping Merrill likely will make the Padres pass on keeping many of the bigger FA on long term deals.
Did an off the cuff shot at the 2025 payroll assuming projected arbitration decisions and not signing any of the Padre FA (or replacements above minimum) ... comes to about $7MM+/- under the CBT ... not a lot to work with and should mean the Padres will exceed the CBT in 2025. 2026's FA (plus Hosmer off the books) gives a lot of room but at the same time some large gaps in the roster (especially SP after Musgrove and Darvish).
All that unknown and must make decisions may just force the Padres to delay attempting to extend Merrill for a few years.
#58 · March 4, 2025, 6:42 am
#59 · April 2, 2025, 6:08 am
Merrill - 9 year min 135 Million extension !!!!!
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MrPadre19
#60 · April 2, 2025, 6:16 am
Thank You Baseball Gods!