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Fernando Tatis, Jr
#161 · January 12, 2021, 4:46 pm
I think the contracts for Trout and the proposed contract for Tatis are worthy of comparison. At age 22, Trout was heading into his last year before arbitration (2014) before potentially becoming a FA in 2018; circumstances identically similar to Tatis Jr.s'. Trout signed a 1M contract in 2014 and then a 144.5M contract (approximately 6M, 16M, 20M, 34M, 34M and 34M) for 6 years (2015-2020) that took him 2 years beyond his free agency eligibility date which would end when he was 28. However, the Angels re-negotiated that contract before its end and in 2019 Trout began a 12 year, 426.5M contract from ages 27-38.
Padres could do something very similar, rewarding Tatis Jr. modestly for his 2020 season and then setting out at least a six year contract. The expressed reluctance to do so has been that Tatis Jr. has not produced like Trout did when he was 20 and 21. Trout and Tatis are two different type hitters and play different positions. Trout is more like Soto, a more disciplined hitter who likely will hit for a higher average throughout his career than Tatis Jr.; however, there are few players who have the power upside than Tatis and still can average 280-290.
Trout played 139 games at age 20 and 157 games at age 21. Tatis Jr. only played 84 games and 59 games, respectfully. Just for argument's sake, if we used a multiplier on Tatis Jr.'s stats to get him to the same number of games as Trout, you would see greater HR and RBI numbers from Tatis Jr. than Trout. Plus, Tatis Jr. plays shortstop! I know that Trout is a superior defensive CF but ss is obviously a tougher defensive position to play. So while we end up making somewhat invalid comparisons, you are talking about elite players who are going to command elite salaries.
So while that first 6 year contract looks reasonable, it is that 2nd one that is going to blow everyone away. For those reasons, I'd try to get as long a contract as possible now and not worry about Tatis Jr. when he is in his early to mid-30's.
#162 · January 12, 2021, 5:47 pm
I am OK with the Trout approach ... a 6-7 year deal and then a renegotiation at market price near the end.
In this era, on a long contract Tatis will have multiple opt outs probably in that same timeframe to protect him if his market value soars (or Padres start to falter as a team and he wants to be on a winner for marketing purposes). So under that condition, the only practical difference if Tatis performs under his contract then does not opt out (see Myers, Hosmer).
#163 · January 13, 2021, 8:32 am
Good point, FENN. It's almost as if the length of the contract "doesn't matter".... it's when EITHER the (shorter) contract ends OR when the (longer) first opt out arrives.
The psychology is interesting though. Every time someone mentions Machado on these boards, it's always "the next 8 years". The only way that is guaranteed to be true on his current contract is if he underperforms it, and isn't worth it. Otherwise he's a Padre for 3 year window of contention, then will be a FA to the Padres & 29 other teams.
Beyond 3 years is an eternity in MLB time. The 2024 Padres core right now is: Tatis & Ha-jeong Kim in their last year of control & probably/maybe tail of career Hosmer. Hit/Lose to FA: Pham, Myers, Clevinger, Darvish, Snell, Lamet, Pomeranz, Machado.
If we can lock Tatis in as the foundational building block of the 2024 - 2026 Padres ("next, Next 3 years") with either 6 year contract or until his first opt out, I am OK with that.
#164 · January 13, 2021, 12:15 pm
I really don't like those player opt outs from the Teams/Fans perspective.
If the player plays like an All-Star he's gone....if he plays poorly you're stuck with him the rest of the length of the deal.
Win-win for the player.
Obviously there are levels of performance in between those two choices but basically the better he plays the better chance you lose him.
Kinda hard to root for a guy to be an MVP just so he can leave your team.....Conversely you don't want him to play poorly either.
Why I hate them....
#165 · January 13, 2021, 12:41 pm
Off the top of my head, the only reasons I can see why the teams go with opt-outs:
1. Want to win now and only way to get a key player to sign
2. Might get them a lower level for those pre-opt out years by giving what is basically an insurance policy in the future years against under performance.
3. Think the have properly projected his future value and IF better willing to renegotiate at the point of opt out.
4. Owner / GM doubt they will still be around when the opt out becomes a problem ... or have enough money not to care.
5. All of the Above.
#166 · January 15, 2021, 11:19 am
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 11 votes
Juan Soto: 5 votes
Ronald Acuña Jr: 4 votes
#168 · January 16, 2021, 12:49 pm
At this point if it’s gonna cost $30 mil per season to sign Tatis there’s no benefit(or not enough) for the Padres to do it now.
May as we’ll wait one more year....or even two.
The team will be taking 100% of the risk.
#169 · January 23, 2021, 2:39 pm
I just found this.
Maybe everyone else has already seen it?
If not......enjoy your King.
#170 · January 28, 2021, 10:20 am
a full breakdown of 31 y.o. CF Springer’s 6/150 contract (25 AAV), which include:
- an eight-team no-trade clause.
- Springer receives a $10MM signing bonus,
- a $22MM salary in 2021,
- $28MM in 2022,
- then $22.5MM each year from 2023-26.
- There is also a $150K bonus if Springer wins an MVP award,
- as well as $50K bonuses for other achievements like a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, World Series MVP Awards, or an All-Star selection.
Springer's track record:
- a three-time All-Star who thrived as a member of the Astros from 2014-20.
- Springer took 3,567 PA as an Astro and batted .270/.361/.491 (134 wRC+) w 174 HRs. He helped the team to a pair of pennants and a World Series championship
- Springer was outstanding in the playoffs with the Astros, evidenced by his 19 home runs – the fourth most in the history of the postseason.
Tatis, (at FA) a (JUST) 26 y.o. SS...
- So far in 615 PA as a Padre, .301 / .374 / .582 w 39 HRs
Food for thought for the how do you structure a Tatis contract... with a min salary year + 3 arb years, fair to argue there's no way he approaches 25 AAV on a 6 year contract.... but he/agents will contend when he DOES hit FA he will be worth WAYYYYYYY > 25 MM AAV in the FA years. ???