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Fernando Tatis, Jr
#151 · January 11, 2021, 9:10 am
Opt out will be interesting ... guessing after year seven of the deal making him a FA at 29. He would in effect be guarantee 3 FA years to the Padres to secure the opt out. Machado and Hosmer’s opt outs are after 5 years (but they were all FA years) and Machado’s cash flow was flat and Hosmer’s deal dropped after the opt out period ... not sure the team’s logic for that but it may have been a push from Hosmer’s side to front load the deal.
Also, will there be no trade provisions? Machado doesn’t but Hosmer does for the first three ... two years were he can be traded ... then 10/5 rights kick in allowing him to reject any trade in his last three years.
Money - years - opt outs - no trade clauses - special demands .... not an easy deal to be comfortable with.
If Tatis gets an opt out before end of year 7, I'd be surprised/disappointed. But there may be more than 1 opt out, so could be something like opt outs after years 6 & 9?
Cant' really compare FT's deal to 2 true FA vets at time they signed. ALL players want to front load their deals as much as possible. Hosmer's deal was structured as a logical "exit" point where he theoretically would be able to get > 3/39 at that time. At moment (unlikely to change), it looks like Padres are "stuck" with that contract. Something not getting discussed at all is: anything close to level of 2020 performance going forward for Machado makes him a near certain opt out. However, the flat structure of his contract makes it easy to modify going forward. For example, Stay 1 more year? 5 MM bonus + minor salary bump & push opt out forward 1 year. Or if FT is "locked in" as a Padre for 7 years vs. MM's max 8 years, and they really like/thrive on playing together, maybe just pad his whole 5 last years as neccy to get him to stay. The interplay between MM & FT contracts similar length, totals, & AAV's; but very different structures will be fascinating.
MM does have a limited 6 team no-trade. He will hit his 10 & 5 rights (i.e. full no trade) when he reaches the opt out date of the contract, so if he remained a Padre, he would have full no trade rights. Hosmer had full no trade the 1st 3 years (likely b/c he wanted to force Pads to "stick with it" as a rebuilding team when he signed), now has a limited ?? # of teams no trade, and will also gain his 10/5 rights at his opt out date, meaning Padres could only trade Hos this year or next (unless he wanted to be).
Tatis likely won't have any "no trade" rights immediately (first 4 years?), but guessing some limited no-trade will kick in later on.
#152 · January 11, 2021, 9:22 am
Hmmm.... the plot thickens!! Directly contradictory reports ??? Warring Padres / F.T. Agent press "leaks"??
Report: Padres, Tatis Have Not Yet Discussed Contract
TODAY: Reports of an imminent contract extension for Fernando Tatis Jr. may be premature. Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Tatis and the Padres have yet to begin contract negotiations. Both sides remain amenable to an extension, and they are likely to begin discussions before spring training in mid-February, writes Nightengale. There is no rush for the two sides, however, and it remains wholly possible that Tatis will begin the 2021 season without a long-term extension in place.
#153 · January 11, 2021, 10:07 am
Every negotiation is different but Tatis' agent (MVP Sports Group) negotiated big deals for Machado, Pujols, and Votto ... and they got top dollar for their clients but they were all established with years of production under the belts.
I could see a statement coming out that a lot of good groundwork has been laid this winter and the extension talks will resume next winter IF Tatis' agent pushes for a contract that projects "perfection" (all risk to the club). Remember the Padres have four control years at likely less than $50MM.
Both sides may see an advantage to seeing what evolves with Lindor (and the other FA SS) next winter combined with a full season of Tatis' performance to size a "fair to both sides" extension.
Do think the Padres will pay the market price to keep Tatis .... just right now not sure a market price exists.
#154 · January 11, 2021, 1:37 pm
You can tell the Hot Stove is cold when someone made up a story about signing a kid with three years left on his rookie contract.
Someone sign someone already!
#155 · January 11, 2021, 2:07 pm
D. Smith show today .... he had spoken with a couple of his Padre contacts:
From both: the numbers are “a complete fabrication” and the Padres “hope” to engage with Tatis on extension discussions (implying they have not yet seriously).
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Not from the Padres’s guys but a reason Preller could be in the D.R. is to check-up on Lamet’s status (Preller had said he was going to do that) along with following-up on some Int’l signings.
#156 · January 12, 2021, 5:33 am
Word now is Tatis is deciding between a long term deal(Padre for life) and a shorter deal that would make him a FA while still in his prime.
Makes sense.
#157 · January 12, 2021, 6:49 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on January 12, 2021, 5:33 amWord now is Tatis is deciding between a long term deal(Padre for life) and a shorter deal that would make him a FA while still in his prime.
Makes sense.
I lean toward the comments for Acee and D.Smith (both with direct contact with the Padres) that nothing is on the table to be decided upon.
Tatis' camp may be internally debating with is best for them as a negotiation strategy ... not deciding between two alternative offers.
Of course this is Preller (and Siedler) ... so possible (but unlikely) that they are negotiating without anyone else in the loop.
#158 · January 12, 2021, 6:51 am
Jan. 12: Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic report that Preller visited Tatis in the Dominican Republic last week. While that might seem to run contrary to yesterday’s report from Nightengale, ESPN’s Jeff Passan adds that Preller and Tatis did indeed meet, but no offer has been made. Passan characterizes things similarly to Nightengale, suggesting that Preller & Co. expect talks to take place and that last week’s meeting could be a precursor to earnest negotiations. The Padres are optimistic about getting something done before Opening Day, per The Athletic.
#159 · January 12, 2021, 2:35 pm
Rosenthal basically says Tatis not getting near a 30 MM AAV like Machado/Harper as a true FA, or Betts 1 year away from FA (in last yr of his arb), since he is still 4 years away from FA. However, he asserts that since Betts (record setting) 3 years of Arb were 57 MM+, that it's possible Tatis could exceed 50 MM for his 3 arb years.
He argues that even a long contract like the rumored 11 years in Tatis' specific situation makes no sense, b/c it takes him too far out of his prime years when he finally "re-hits" FA; so he suggests either a shorter contract 6/110+ OR an insanely long one of 15/300+
While I still feel Padres should push for as long as possible, a 22 year old agreeing to a 15 year "lifetime" deal even with multiple opt outs seems absurd. I'd love 8 years, BUT I do have to say that since the Padres appear to have "arrived" a year early & have gone all in to win the next 3 years, I would be a lot more "OK" with "only" a 6 year deal than I would have a few months ago; especially right after the Clevinger surgery was announced, and I thought Pads' payroll would be too limited to really go for it in 2021.
A murky picture with speculation all over the place. But what has become clear is that there is willingness on both sides, and I think it's now or never for Padres. Once Tatis enters arb, he might as well wait it out, b/c going to do "OK" $-wise in the meantime with arb & NATIONAL endorsement $. Padres have to get it done. Tatis isn't just the face of our franchise... he's one of the few faces of MLB itself.
#160 · January 12, 2021, 3:12 pm
Some of the more rational talking heads I heard last week, were saying a good starting point for SD and Tatis would be the first contract of Trout with some increase for the difference in time. Trouts first contract was 6 years for $144.5M just a tick over $24M and that was 2014. So you have to add for inflation for Tatis and maybe detract a little since, while Tatis is great, not Trout great at this time. So maybe 6 years at $155-165M, that would buy out his first two years of FA, and still allow him to be a FA at age 27/28. That should work out for both IMO.