Quote from MrPadre19 on October 16, 2020, 12:40 pm

A lot of chatter about extending FTJ all over the interwebs.

What do you guys think?

Personally I'd like to wait one more year.

I'd like for him to complete a 162 game schedule.

Plus,as we've discussed,due to Covid and other factors payroll is a concern and we need to add to this team that was "so close" in a couple other areas.

We all believe our window has just cracked open and will be for 4-5 years to come and maybe more,but in reality you can never know.

Maybe 2021 is "the year" for us and we need every dollar for it.

Plus there isn't an immediate need unless it starts to mess with Tatis personally....which I do not believe would be the case.

It's not like he needs money to take care of his family atm.

Personally if/when we do I would like to see a front loaded deal.

He's only 21 and I would expect any extension to "only" be in the 7-8 year range so he can cash in again before turning 30.

In a case like this how great would it be if we could front load his deal so in 7 years he's only making $8-$10 a season?

If we weren't going to extend him again just imagine the trade value of a player like Tatis if he's making like 10 mil per!

Back loading he could be making $40 mil by then....even if still the best player in baseball you won't get much in trade for his final season.

Just a thought....

 

 

Quote from Randy Manese on October 16, 2020, 1:01 pm

My thoughts are somewhat different.  Because of the downturn in funding after this year and the uncertainty of the next, I believe Tatis is willing to negotiate a smaller salary up front and a larger, but reasonable salary later.  Moreover the contracts for Hosmer and Myers decline or are eliminated meaning the only large obligations is Manny after 2023.   I see a 5 year deal, starting small at around 1.5, then jumping to 5, 10, 15 and 25 million in the last year.  By that time, we'll know the market for the previous shortstop salaries of Lindor, Correa, Baez, Seager and Story and see how they have worked or not worked at a similar age for those players; we'll also know Tatis' durability over 5 seasons and whether he has made the progression as a complete player we all expect him to accomplish.  These 5 years will essentially cover the 1st year of FA eligibility (2024) and set him up for a huge extension prior to the last year of the contract or a huge salary as a FA if things fall apart in San Diego.

Financially, I think this team will take off because of the kind of excitement it can bring on a national stage provided our SP stabilizes.  However, you have to invest in one of the faces of the entire MLB, not only San Diego, and other teams would love to be in our situation and not mishandle what now is a great working relationship with the Tatis family.  Give him the money and soon!

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 16, 2020, 1:30 pm

Oh I understand a frontloaded deal is unlikely.....was just thinking "outside the box".

Do you really think it would only be 5 years though?

That hardly helps the Team enough to even consider it.

If you're only adding one more season of control you may as well roll the dice with arbitration and avoid the risk of injury etc...

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 16, 2020, 1:32 pm

Not in a hurry to extend him ... not the priority negotiation this winter. Control him for four more years. Plus seeing him in a full 162 game schedule is helpful ... not really about the desire to extend him BUT to size the right price. Too easy to pay for the 1/2 of last season and July of this year ... but Aug showed some hiccups that the Padres may want to ensure are just a bump in the road.

Agree that an 8 year deal seems the right length for his agent's perspective ... allowing him to hit FA while still in his 20s. (note think same agent as Machado and he worked the 10 year deal for him).

Practical point on a major "front load" with the next two years still paying Machado, Myers, and Hosmer $70MM ... cash flow is cash flow. As it is would a debate about a "signing bonus" level from a cash perspective. After 2022 could see the uptick post Myers and Hosmer's salary drop.

Owners probably don't like to front load .... and have to pay out of current revenues. Rather, push the payments out (time value of money makes the dollar "cheaper" based on investing the difference) and the ability to pay from a bigger revenue pool (hopefully). For the owners ... paying $20MM in 2021 is much more expensive than paying $20MM in 2028. Plus in 2028 that may be the next owners' problem. (note: both sides understand this time value issue and will try to negotiate on a present value basis of the whole contract).

Not sure it is a great selling point to the player / agent that the team wants to pay you low near the end of your deal in order to trade you because either we think you will under perform or we will not be willing to pay for a new deal. Maybe the counter is that the contract has to be even greater for that team "benefit". More likely, agent will be asking for a no trade clause or at least a limited number of teams of the player's choice.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 17, 2020, 9:57 am

You guys are nuts... I think extending him is the #1,2, & 3 priority this offseason.  More important than Profar etc we've spent a lot of time on.

Right now, 1 -2 MM salary/signing bonus is very significant to Tatis.  It won't be next year entering arb where even with some missed time in 2019 & covid effect, I have to believe he'll reach 8 figure salary.

When he was steamrolling towards MVP in July, I seriously was wondering whether we would be able to get him to commit to:         8 yrs / 200 MM.    His cooling off may have been a blessing in disguise for an extension.  But MLBTR writeup points out it's a foregone conclusion he gets more than Acuna's 8 yrs / 100 MM.    So we've already got it narrowed down to "only" 100 MM over 8 years!   Top of head, I'm guessing his agency holds out for:  8 yrs / 160 MM ... a 20 MM AAV floor.

This is not at all insane.  Bullet points:

• Deal would not be "front loaded".   Early pre-arb extensions typically have very low if any signing bonus.  Might be something like 1-2 MM in signing bonus and 1-2 MM in salary in 2021.  Will escalate sharply in 2022 when he would have hit arb.  Pads' payroll should peak in 2022, drop a little in 2023 with Myers 20 MM & 7-20 MM of Hosmer's contracts fall off
• The biggest issue will be getting Tatis to commit to 8 years.  That would control him through age 29; hitting FA at 30.  His agents may push for a significantly shorter deal like 6 years.  Pads should push for as long as they can, even if those years are in 30 MM AAV territory; he's worth it.
• 8 years does sync exactly with Machado's deal; but Manny could leave after 3 years.  If he is anything close to this season in 3 years that likelihood would be high.  Tatis' deal will probably include some degree of no trade control to him, but don't think Pads should include opt outs for such an early extension (not typical; Myers has none, etc)

How about:  8/160 as: incl 5 MM S.B:    1 (+2 SB) / 7 (+3 SB) / 15 / 20 / 25 / 27 / 29 / 31

Next 4 yrs roughly what Tatis might get over 3 yrs arb, but he gets "insurance" of SB $ against uncertain 2021 & 2022 seasons.

Padres get 4 years of Tatis' FA from age 26 -29 for 112 MM = 28 MM AAV.  Think it's safe to say that Tatis as a FA at 26 is looking at a bigger contract than Manny's:  350 - 400 MM.

Quote from fenn68 on October 17, 2020, 10:42 am

What is the advantage of signing Tatis to a long extension NOW vs. pursuing that next winter? Padres control him for four more years via arbitration. IF the Padres are taking all the risk with a guaranteed contract they should get some concessions from the player and not have to pay "best case scenario" on Tatis' future.

As I recall the contract they gave Gyorko was a best case arbitration scenario early ... not so good. We know about Myers.

Unlike a Betts, Machado, even Hosmer .... they all had long ML track records and were FA (or about to be) in order to get that big money / long term ... Tatis barely has a full year of ML game time. Think he should be viewed much closer to Acuna (think $17MM for the extension years).

I see more a $120MM/8 year deal or if the out years more costly ... they become club option years.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 17, 2020, 10:15 pm

In my previous post, I indicated that an extension with Tatis Jr.  is one of the most important things the Padres can attempt to do this offseason, especially if there is mutual interest.  Tatis Jr. is one of the savviest players/persons regarding his image and his value not only to the San Diego Padres but to MLB.  He knows that Juan Soto was just paid about 100K above the league minimum in his 3rd year for an extraordinary performance in 2020 and that Soto is probably the best pure hitter in baseball.  He knows that Guerrero Jr. probably won't get a contract extension because he is not the complete player that he is and doesn't play a critical position on the field. He knows that Acuna signed a contract that is way below Acuna's value, but he also knows that the White Sox have contracts in place for Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert that far exceed what he would be getting next year and his arbitration years.

My take is that Tatis Jr. respects the game and is willing to bet on himself on a performance trajectory that will take him significantly beyond the FA contracts that SS's Lindor, Baez, Correa, Seager and Story will get in or before they hit FA next year.  For this reason, I only projected a 5 year contract, which could be renegotiated early, if that is what the parties want to do.  I don't think Tatis Jr. will agree to 7 or 8 years because even he doesn't know where he'll be after 2 or 3 full seasons.  A shorter contract protects him and also protects the Padres if some unfortunate injuries/performance drop-offs do occur although everyone thinks this is highly unlikely.  If he truly is a generational player, like Trout, you want to build around him for as long as you can BUT he has to agree to whatever length that contract is that ultimately will serve his best interests.  Thus, I think a contract similar to what I proposed in my prior post is reasonable to both parties much as we fans would like to lock him up for 10 years right now - it's not going to happen.  I don't think he wants to be a FA at 30, but might be willing to be a free agent at 27 or 28.  Again, sign him sooner than later to that extension.

Quote from fenn68 on October 18, 2020, 8:17 am

Should divide a new contract with Tatis into two parts ... 1) guarantee of the 4 remaining control years; 2) the buyout of the FA years. Then making the contract “guaranteed” puts all the risk on the club ... major advantage to the player (and should be worth a lower AAV).

Consider the following much ballyhooed SS in their first two years (all had much more playing time in those years than Tatis) ... used SPORTRAC for 2021 projection to give them a final 4 year earnings (Tatis’ timeframe):

$48 MM ... Lindor (multiple silver sluggers, gold gloves, all-star recognition)

$33 MM ... Story

$27 MM ... Baez

$24 MM ... Seager

$23 MM ... Correa

So if Lindor represents the top payout ... without any risk ... a guaranteed deal has to be closer to the other four for the next four control years. $32MM?

Then guaranteed money for FA years bought out .. starting 5 years out based on less 600 AB ... is not going to be near the same as a FA after 6 years of proven production.

Does take two sides to make a deal work and given Tatis’ agent is the same as Machado’s ... he might like the idea of year to year and hitting FA in the mid-20s for the Machado type deal. (Note that the SS above were more year to year). If they are confident on Tatis’ high side earnings potential ... they take the risk on over the next four years offering no reduction for the risk shift to the club.

Padres probably would be OK with that and ... if Tatis does evolve into that premium pay FA deal with signing him then (or after year 3 or 4 or 5) for that premium price. Just  don’t pay for perfection while taking all the risk of less than perfection. If he bolts after four years ... unfortunate but the organization will survive.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on October 18, 2020, 10:36 am

I sense that some people have difficulty believing that Tatis Jr. is one of the most talented young players in the league and will only get even better over time, especially the next 4-5 years.  I sense that some people want to overlook what he has accomplished at a young age that none of the above SS's and few players in the MLB all time have ever done.  Tatis Jr. already has a national following over these other 5 SS's and has shown that he is willing to work to get better by showing a tremendous work ethic.  I'm not sure I believe there is great risk for the Padres organization to invest in Tatis Jr.  My sense is that Tatis Jr. only looks at the money as showing respect and trust in him to continue to be the best he can be for the Padres and the San Diego community.  At this point, I don't think he's trying to squeeze as much money as he can out of the Padres unlike other young players who have expressed no interest in getting a contract extension but rather Tatis Jr. is just looking for something similar to what some other young players are getting as recognition of that mutual trust going forward.  I think you'll see Washington try to get Soto to sign a contract extension this year that they wish they would have worked on last year because now it is even going to have to be higher than they imagined.  Lastly, with some exceptions the amount of money paid 4 years ago is not the same as money being paid now to quality talent; arbitration and free agency has made salaries escalate much faster.   I think the risk is low and the reward is high when you have budding superstar player willing to work with you toward a deal that is acceptable to both sides.