Quote from fenn68 on April 5, 2020, 7:33 am

The resumption of the ML season is difficult enough while trying to ensure the players and support personnel remain safe ... trying to do that with the minor leaguers is way more problematic. Consider the "normal" conditions under which the minors league players live ... almost impossible to provide the same security (isolation) from contracting the virus and remember ... if only one player contracts the virus the entire team is shut down.

Should add that baseball (or any sports league) will be hard pressed to justify a priority for getting virus tests over the higher risk individuals ... plus test negative on one day does not mean in a couple of days the individual would not contract the virus ... so how often would tests be needed.

One idea that was floating around is the use of a "taxi squad" .... basically a cadre of players who would be those potentially needed call-up options and either keep them in the spring training site and maybe combining players for multiple teams to play games to keep sharp or keep them in the home city working with the ML staff in non-game situations. Some 40 man roster types coupled with some veteran non-roster types. Going to need that cadre to be active as long as the season runs which based on some thoughts ... through October.

As for running minor league leagues ... normally shutting down in early September ... the logistics (and cost) of trying to extend their season to mirror the ML season would be hard to justify the longer the "start" is being pushed back. An alternative is holding an expanded set of Fall instructional camps (with inter-team games) for a selected set of the better prospects maybe starting earlier and running later (e.g. September to mid-Dec).

Unfortunately we do need to also address the economics. Two camps probably will be better off with playing ... the players (they get paid) and the big clubs with BIG local TV deals (NYY, LAD) which most seem to set at about 1/3rd of the league. Unfortunately without fan attendance (which may be an issue even if they are allowed to attend games) the other 2/3rds of the teams will lose money ... attendance, souvenirs, local advertising revenue as those business recover, etc. How many teams would want to lose money to help the LAD make more money? Ensure players get full pay? So, would the LAD be willing to "share" their profits with the other teams (have not so far) and would the players take a pay cut for the season (not likely)?

Somewhat still an academic debate until we see the trajectory for the containment of the virus ...

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on April 5, 2020, 9:07 am

Quote from BoosterSD on April 5, 2020, 7:02 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on April 4, 2020, 6:06 pm.

So maybe do something like simultaneous re-start of MLB ST AND "top 1/2" of Minors.... guys that project to at least High-A participate in the ST, season starts simultaneously for both MLB and AAA & AA but all on backlots at Minors complexes.  Since no one physically at the games to start, doesn't matter as much what time of day/night they are....

Actually, with no one at the games, wouldnt TV revenue matter even more at that time. Wouldnt you want maximum viewing potential? I still say, that game times would really need to be a close as possible as regular times in order to max out the viewing audience, even with many staying at home for the foreseeable future.

So many people record &/or  stream when they want to now... on MLB.TV you can watch the whole game from the beginning or pick it up live in 4th inning or whatever.

I think TV viewership of any live sport is going to skyrocket because everyone is going stir crazy waiting for it, but I think live attendance is going to be the polar opposite:  SO many people are going to be hurt economically that the amount they spend going to games, merch, etc is going to drop.  Then you have the "is it safe to go back" hanging over all sports, but esp baseball b/c it's an older fanbase and the one that might "come back" first.

It's a catch-22 for baseball; I know they need the crowds at the games, but the #'s may be way down from last season even with fewer games to go to.  But MLB @ complex with no fans to START would simply allow more games to be played this year while (hopefully!) building to "real" crowds.

Quote from MrPadre19 on April 5, 2020, 1:55 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on April 4, 2020, 4:28 pm

A couple of issues with playing in ST venues here in AZ. While normally in March, regular ST time, the weather is pretty nice, we are going to get to the end of this real soon. If this is a temporary solution through end of May, should work fine. After June 1, it would be difficult to see ML games being played at 4pm7pm EDT here in AZ as the temp would probably be close to 100-105 by that time. And late afternoon is the hottest part of the day. Second, half the teams being in FLA and the other in AZ, how would the schedule play out? For instance, the AL and NL Central are split between FLA and AZ, how would interdivision games play out? Plus, many established players dont like the bus time in the FLA ST, and even though these games would be series and not one and done, still doesnt change the fact of being on a bus for 3-7 hours each way.

These would be minor issues back in the 50-80s, but with todays pampered/spoiled pro Athletes, seems like it would be a bigger issue.

I’m pretty sure the idea is for ALL teams/games to be played in Arizona.

Eliminating Florida altogether to limit travel.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on April 6, 2020, 6:04 am

It’s crazy to think that if the season is cancelled Mookie Betts will never play for the Dodgers and they will have lost Verdugo+.

Quote from fenn68 on April 6, 2020, 7:23 am

I suspect each team will be different but wonder how losing a full (or partial) season of revenues and saving some expenses will impact their 2021 spending strategy.

Not sure if any of the revenues continue (e.g. a portion of the TV rights) but clearly a some expenses continue (e.g. ballpark costs, front office personnel, health insurance,  etc.). Clearly they are losing the major source of revenues from attendance, concessions, souvenirs, local sponsors, etc.  Teams that were "profitable" should quickly move into "unprofitable" from a cash flow perspective. That likely is true under any of the restart scenarios.

Might be a tough winter to be a FA with a lot of clubs maybe pulling pack on the FA offers. That may result in FA signing more one - two year deals to allow the financial healing and lag past the new CBA negotiation. Hard to read but less money in play. Cash in hand is the key.

Padres do have contracts falling off with Yates, Profar, Richards and some dead money ending ... so a bit of an offset in 2021 for 2020 loses. Plus if cash is "tight" might see some non-tenders / DFA of marginal veterans in favor of rookies (e.g. Garcia) or may some cash saving trades (e.g. Davies/Pham/Hedges) if they can find a buyer.

Probably this is a worst case scenario but at some level would expect a more considered approach to spending in 2021.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on April 6, 2020, 7:57 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on April 5, 2020, 1:55 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on April 4, 2020, 4:28 pm

A couple of issues with playing in ST venues here in AZ. While normally in March, regular ST time, the weather is pretty nice, we are going to get to the end of this real soon. If this is a temporary solution through end of May, should work fine. After June 1, it would be difficult to see ML games being played at 4pm7pm EDT here in AZ as the temp would probably be close to 100-105 by that time. And late afternoon is the hottest part of the day. Second, half the teams being in FLA and the other in AZ, how would the schedule play out? For instance, the AL and NL Central are split between FLA and AZ, how would interdivision games play out? Plus, many established players dont like the bus time in the FLA ST, and even though these games would be series and not one and done, still doesnt change the fact of being on a bus for 3-7 hours each way.

These would be minor issues back in the 50-80s, but with todays pampered/spoiled pro Athletes, seems like it would be a bigger issue.

I’m pretty sure the idea is for ALL teams/games to be played in Arizona.

Eliminating Florida altogether to limit travel.

 

That would be ideal, but sounds like croweded facilities with teams doubling up, etc right now?

 

Quote from fenn68 on April 6, 2020, 8:38 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on April 6, 2020, 7:57 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on April 5, 2020, 1:55 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on April 4, 2020, 4:28 pm

A couple of issues with playing in ST venues here in AZ. While normally in March, regular ST time, the weather is pretty nice, we are going to get to the end of this real soon. If this is a temporary solution through end of May, should work fine. After June 1, it would be difficult to see ML games being played at 4pm7pm EDT here in AZ as the temp would probably be close to 100-105 by that time. And late afternoon is the hottest part of the day. Second, half the teams being in FLA and the other in AZ, how would the schedule play out? For instance, the AL and NL Central are split between FLA and AZ, how would interdivision games play out? Plus, many established players dont like the bus time in the FLA ST, and even though these games would be series and not one and done, still doesnt change the fact of being on a bus for 3-7 hours each way.

These would be minor issues back in the 50-80s, but with todays pampered/spoiled pro Athletes, seems like it would be a bigger issue.

I’m pretty sure the idea is for ALL teams/games to be played in Arizona.

Eliminating Florida altogether to limit travel.

 

That would be ideal, but sounds like croweded facilities with teams doubling up, etc right now?

 

30 teams with full support staffs (coaches, trainers, club house personnel) and needed media / TV personnel (on air / behind the scenes techs) not only creates issues with suitable ballparks ... it also creates issues with living / eating facilities while crowding out space for any minor league activities.

This would be generating no local revenues for the teams (attendance, et al) and not sure how the local TV carriers would respond to televising (and paying rights) for games at odd hours. However, expenses would go up with salaries and, likely having to pay the players for living expenses considering these will be viewed by the players as all road games.

I would think that IF the situation improves to allow for this congestion in Arizona ... it would have improved enough to warrant games (at least through OCT) being played in the home cities.

Oddly, it may be a better economic strategy is to have fewer games in the season but play those games in the home cities were they can generate some real revenue. AUG and SEP could stay as scheduled and if they add OCT the schedule could be biased to the better weather venues near the end of the month ... if they add OCT and NOV (part) same scheduling logic. Playoffs in neutral sites. Under that logic, still could get 81-100 games. Clearly IF the start can be accelerated to JULY there is greater flexibility in strategy. Need to plan to the worst case and flex to better outcomes.

Quote from WindsorUK on April 6, 2020, 11:18 am

Also have to worry about weather on the east coast as you creep into the autumn.

Maybe extend the regular season until end of September and all playoffs at neutral sites out west.

Quote from fenn68 on April 9, 2020, 1:27 pm

As this pandemic lingers .... the list of POTENTIAL new issues start to be discussed.

In a discussion coming out of a SEC official ... IF this year's college football season by some chance is cancelled (or severely curtailed) colleges have to deal with the loss of their primary revenue maker ... and the source of funding for the other college sports. The ripple effect may be the cancelling of other sports for the 2020-21 academic year. Given Title IX ... it will be both men's and woman's sports. The non-self funding sports (e.g. baseball in most colleges) could be on the block. Now many colleges have already cancelled on campus classes for the summer session ... going to be hard to justify football practice in August - September and games beginning in September. So, this speculation is not that far fetched.

Football is a lot of body to body contact .. large teams in close quarters. Hard to get teams together even if they want to play to empty stadiums (to get the TV revenue). IF the SEC is concerned, think about the other smaller conferences that don't even have the luxury of major TV deals.

So, IF a number of spring 2021 college baseball seasons are cancelled due to lack of funding .... then add the curtailed 2020 draft ... then add the granted extra year of eligibility ... and has to be a conundrum for the college ballplayers trying to deal with the big unknowns. If a kid is not drafted (and a team wants to sign them to the limit of $10K) ... should he take it rather than returning to school and maybe not having a 2021 season (thus losing 2 years of playing time) and potentially getting squeezed out of playing time in college as more HS choose college (plus in a tighter money scenario who gets the scholarship ... at any level).

Maybe a low probability scenario ... BUT