Quote from WindsorUK on July 30, 2023, 7:45 pm

I mostly like good Snell( but him only giving you 5 innings every time out is not healthy for the pen) but really dislike bad Snell.

Overall, the team loses at an alarming rate when he's on the mound.

I'd prefer the Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha type signings.

I'm in the trade him camp.

Quote from fenn68 on July 31, 2023, 6:27 am

I expect he will get a $25MM AAV and 5-6 years … something in line with Rodon’s deal last winter (and Rodon had a major injury history … Snell does not).

Can’t see the Padres’ offering that much long term … given the other contracts … just to keep this same team with needs beyond those few.

Since I do anticipate a limit on payroll growth … going to be controversial about the future of Snell, Kim, Soto, Hader vs signing FA who also will cost.

Quote from fenn68 on July 31, 2023, 7:08 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 9, 2023, 8:24 pm

OK, at the break only 6 games out of the wild card and “only” 4 teams to jump over … so still a chance if none of them also get hot and the Padres win 2 out of 3 for the rest of the season. Padres cannot afford any loosing streak.

Would be more confident if the Padres do better than 11-6 through the rest of July.

 

OK, 3 weeks ago the Padres were 6 games out with 4 teams to pass ... today they are 5 games out and 4 teams to jump over. Not the progress we have hoped for.

Padres basically matched the others (no one has taken off on a mega hot streak except the Cubs) ... and matching the others does not bode well for the Padres who still need to get on a winning streak and hope none of those ahead also don't get hot ... challenging.

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 28, 2023, 5:56 pm

Gonna start calling Blake Houdini.

He puts himself in a straight jacket and locks himself up into a tank full of water and hopes he can still get out alive.

 

Quote from sportwarrior on August 30, 2023, 11:35 am

With the benefit of hindsight, it woulda been nice to sign Blake last offseason to a long term extension and NOT trade for Soto.

Next best thing would be to recover whatever talent we can for Soto this offseason, resign Blake and focus on adding to our vet core from within over the next few seasons.

Quote from fenn68 on August 30, 2023, 12:00 pm

With Boras as his agent … Snell will get a contract better than Rodon got from the Yankees … if for no other reason than Snell’s stays healthy with comparable in game performance.

That should be 6-7 years and between $25-30MM per year … and that only get Snell to age 37-38. Maybe they should have signed (but probably couldn’t with Boras as his agent) longer term instead of the aging / declining Darvish.

Past is the past but going forward can the Padres really want to offer another big money long term contract to a player that will be in his mid-late 30s at the end (they have 7 already) … and Snell has his issue of going deep into games (reducing the odds of the Padres actually winning those games) and although CY Young level in his FA walk year (a feature of Boras clients) has to be a concern to regression to his earlier time with SD.

Also, they will have the same debate on Kim next winter coming off his breakout … he is an everyday player and maybe more reliable investment than Snell. Not sure either will end up with extensions but I would target Kim over Snell while moving on from Soto … redeploying money Soto’s money and expect Kim less than Snell … so more money … to add quality but less expensive SP / hitters.

Then guessing on internal adds … better chance of boosting the SP (Lesko, Snelling, Iriate, Mazur, Bergert) coming soon than adding offense past Merrill.

Quote from WindsorUK on September 3, 2023, 1:11 pm

Who are Blake's main rivals for CY this year? Strider? Gallen? Both are with teams who've performed better and superior WHIP's.

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 3, 2023, 2:19 pm

Quote from WindsorUK on September 3, 2023, 1:11 pm

Who are Blake's main rivals for CY this year? Strider? Gallen? Both are with teams who've performed better and superior WHIP's.

 

I guess Steele from the Cubs is in he mix. All seem to have different selling points … so the 30 writers will likely have different criteria.

I would keep an eye out for Strider … mega strikeout guy (so a lot of swings and misses), on the best team in MLB, probably getting superior views being on the East Coast on a top team. ERA not the greatest but good WHIP.

Snell is solid in WHIP/ERA and major swing and miss yielding Ks (showing dominance) BUT has the drawbacks of being on a losing team (less pressure?), a ton of BB, and basically a 5 inning guy in some views so less chance to get hit going that extra inning.

Could be close between those two.

Steele is more unknown and would have to show some clear separation to beat the more established choices. Gallen might suffer a bit for being on AZ / West Coast and a lesser reputation … and that he has had a couple of clunkers most recently vs. LAD.

So, a coin flip for me right now Snell vs. Strider … and the rest of SEP may be the difference.