Quote from fenn68 on July 9, 2023, 8:59 am

BIG questions:

1. Does Snell want to sign with SD or find an organization that would give him more offensive support?

2. As a FA … what will it take to sign Snell? (Expect it is a more than Musgrove’s $100MM/5 year deal) and does that become the only major increase to the payroll entering 2024?

3. How good will be the return offered by teams?

4. Then the pivotal question … are the Padres in strong contention for a Wild Card, out of “reasonable” probability of a Wild Card, or in that dangerous “grey area”.

So, since unlikely there is resolution of signing Snell before the trade deadline (and of course can sign him in the winter as a FA) … If Padres are in strong contention they hold, IF reasonably out trade for the best bid, If in the “grey area” trading would depend on the quality of the offer … although even as a “rental” his performance for the pennant run and in the playoffs should yield at least one high quality prospect.

IF it come to a trade, I look at BALT and TEX both with clear shots at Division championships and have not been legit World Series candidates for a long time and, most important, a deep group of highly ranked AAA/A A prospects.

A decision the Padres will probably take to the wire.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 9, 2023, 9:54 am

I would kind of like to find a way to keep Snell around long term. Outside of Ohtani I think he's just as good as any starter that's . He also just seems like a genuinely good dude. I can't remember another player joining the broadcast with Don and Mud as often as he does and have heard lots of stories of him going out of his way to interact with security, ticket sales personnel and all kinds of off the field staff. It's kind of a refreshing attitude to see from a player.

Having said that with 18 games left before the deadline and the team 5 games under if the team doesn't put together a strong run they have to seriously consider moving him. With the CBT penalties if they give him a qualifying offer and he leaves they only get a 4th round comp pick. I would think they could find better value than that in a trade and they could still try to bring him back in free agency.

Quote from fenn68 on July 9, 2023, 12:33 pm

Agree that retaining Snell long term makes sense. To contend in 2024-25 Padres will need quality SP beyond Musgrove, Darvish, and (if the club option exercised) Wacha. After those three (expecting Lugo to not pick up his player option) the fall off is dramatic. Trying to sign someone nearly as good as Snell would also cost a ton and come with its own unknowns. Plus as described he is a plus character for the team. There is a school of thought that retaining (and paying) a teams’ own players has a ripple effect in boosting the attitude of the others and makes the team more appealing for further FA.

I know we have seen some frustrating spells from Snell but generally those were followed by spells of greatness. Stepping back and looking at his career … the net is quite good at a 3.35 ERA. Plus he is only 30 and should have a number of quality years going forward.

If the Padres could give long extensions to the aging Darvish and a declining Cronenworth … hard to imagine Siedler is not interested at this point. Maybe it boils down to how Snell (and his agent Scott Boras) want to play it. Given Snell’s apparent need for being comfortable in his environment (and he is not going back to TB at his cost) there should be some signing advantage of staying in SD.

Since it is Boras … taking him to FA at this point is almost a certainty but will not preclude Padres’ resigning since Boras will push for the best deal and Siedler might just do that.

So, I suspect the odds of making the playoffs at the decision point will be quite low, the optimum strategy would be trade Snell … get at least one prime prospect … and re-sign him after the season. Going to be another BIG contract.

Quote from fenn68 on July 9, 2023, 12:40 pm

As it stands (based on my view) it will take the Padres winning 2 out of every 3 games for the rest of the season if everyone (and there are multiple teams) just play to the season winning percentages. If any of them also get hot … a bigger problem. Not likely all go cold. Padres should need 90 wins … and that would take a winning percentage that only ATL has achieve so far this year.

IF they don’t get a major win streak in the next 18 games …the forward winning percentage gets to be unrealistic … and they need to sell high.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 9, 2023, 7:35 pm

Snell is an odd guy.

Why I say that is (Sweeney ref.),he was really bothered by getting traded from TB.

My first thought was it would be great if we traded him at the deadline and then re-signed him in the offseason.

But,not only does that rarely ever happen I doubt Snell would be very happy with that plan.

I think the whole “sign Ohtani thing” could be a factor.

If we are serious about going after him how do we extend Snell or Hader?

Dilemma….hard also to plan on Ohtani and then he signs elsewhere then we also miss out on keeping our guy(s).

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 9, 2023, 8:24 pm

OK, at the break only 6 games out of the wild card and “only” 4 teams to jump over … so still a chance if none of them also get hot and the Padres win 2 out of 3 for the rest of the season. Padres cannot afford any loosing streak.

Would be more confident if the Padres do better than 11-6 through the rest of July.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 30, 2023, 5:11 pm

Blake Snell in his last 13 starts.

108 Strikeouts.

6 Earned Runs.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2023, 5:17 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 30, 2023, 5:11 pm

Blake Snell in his last 13 starts.

108 Strikeouts.

6 Earned Runs.

 

Making his case for a strong CY Young run … and making his agent’s case (Scott Boras) for a very very large / long FA contract. Also helps that Snell has not been much of an injury risk … he is making his starts.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 30, 2023, 6:01 pm

Imagine if he could go 7 instead of 5