Quote from fenn68 on October 20, 2020, 9:32 am

Side thought on FA ... not likely a lot of action until January - February at the earliest (if at all) given the uncertainty.

One signing issue may be signing bonuses. Teams will not want to give bonuses (paid upfront) with the possibility of a delayed or cancelled season ... or even cash flow problems. Don't know how that impacts FA signings

We may see a lot of one year deals with a murky future made more confusing with whatever the CBA delivers that may impact future pay scales.

If the owners don't start considering FA signing well into 2021 and then the season start begins to slide into the summer ... will teams even sign a lot of those FA?

This is getting very confusing from a planning perspective.

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 4, 2020, 11:00 am

Moreland's 3 MM salary would have "=" Hedges 3 MM on Opening Day roster in 2020.  With the buyout, I now have "as it stands" Opening Day Payroll at:    125.5 MM   that's vs. 146 MM O.D. payroll 2020.  Assumptions:

• No FA (re) signings
• Used the highest MLBTR Arbitration salary estimate for all players (i.e. 10.6 MM for Davies, 4.6 MM Lamet, etc)
• Garcia (?) & Perdomo (& Wingenter) get Non-Tendered
• Tatis gets 1 MM salary (either as 1st yr of big extension or just a big raise over ~600K last year)
• 26-man roster (not 30 like O.D. last year)
• No players on IL Opening Day (good luck with that!)

Bottom line:  I agree the Pads are extremely unlikely to exceed last year's Opening Day payroll, which would = 20 MM to spend.  But also think "10 MM" figure = 135 O.D. payroll even with Covid is a little light given how well the team performed & the trade deadline "go for it" mentality (which increased end of season payroll) having the Pads sitting right now with the 3rd best odds of winning next year's World Series.... not the situation to slam on the brakes.

So I'm going to peg in-between:  That Pads at the moment will have about 15 MM to spend to reach an Opening Day "soft" payroll ceiling of 140 MM.

Quote from fenn68 on November 4, 2020, 12:44 pm

I am much more pessimistic about the 2021 payroll even being pushed up to $135MM.

The 2020 payroll was pretty much created before any of the issues surrounding COVID cut into the cash flow. Having a good season did little to add revenues without fans in the stands. At the trade deadline all they really did was add 1/6 of the annual salaries for  Rosenthal, Clevinger, Castro, and Moreland ... that is just a few million.

Padres have no idea if they have a season or fans at some level in the stands and (I think I read this right) MLB has suspended the revenue sharing from local receipts (Padre have been receivers as I recall) so lower revenue that even planned in 2020.

Can’t see how they can make any commitments to FA until all that is ironed out .... about next spring.

Another reason they may be reluctant in moving on more spending ... is the real question as to whether Clevinger and Lamet can actually pitch ... Paddack can actually rebound ... a pitching prospect can step up .... Cronenworth plays like August / not Sept .... was Myers season a fluke .... can Pham play up to Profar’s contribution ... a long list of IFs that a good chance one big add does zip. Maybe wait until the have a much better reading on what they actually have. Since it as of now back to 5 playoff clubs ... 2 wild cards with an one game play-in ... might be a bit less “go for it” thinking.

Just me, but would not be surprised that $125MM payroll goes lower first with the non-tender of Pham and maybe even Davies.

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 5, 2020, 12:11 am

Well, THAT is the glass half empty outlook 🙂

The Padres as constructed are one of the best teams in MLB but are heavily reliant on the 8 -man starting group of the big 3 + Pham, and then now 4 guys at minimum salary offsetting enough that a reasonable amount of $ can be spent on SP & RP.  RP the $ has largely been (arguably "over") committed with all the additions last year.  With SP they are extraordinarily lucky to have Lamet & Clevinger & even Davies well below what their market values ... even in a depressed market are.  Not many teams in top 3-5-7 of MLB can be there spending a total of 22-23 MM on their ENTIRE SP staff (high end arb projection x 3 + 2 minimum)!

Where I  agree with you is:  even if I'm right and there is 15 MM available (likely to rise; see next post)... there is no way the Padres can justify anything even close to 7 MM-- half of their entire budget-- on Profar; unless it's to replace Pham (an idea I still don't like).   I really don't like the idea of non-tendering Pham; his arb value is actually depressed by the disaster of a year he had (little or no increase to payroll over 2019, unlike Davies) and it creates a gaping must fill hole in lineup with no internal and very limited external options.  Davies pay may increase dramatically.  He would have to be replaced, and it would be risky to do so, but there are a lot more internal & FA options there.  No DH does impact Profar's value negatively too; just not as much as guys like Moreland or Pham.

Good possibility Preller goes extremely low budget on bench rebuild; hope the FA market craters to where you get same or equivalent guys for much less $ than 2020.   Give real playing time opportunity to Mejia, Mateo... Can add there at deadline if neccy.

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 5, 2020, 12:48 am

Creative ways Padres may employ to save/create payroll $ in 2021:

1. Non-Tenders.  Perdomo will be.  Garcia might be.  But could "save" big $ by N.T. Davies or Pham.  Of course move like that would create a hole that presumably some or even more $ than what was saved would have to cover.  Potential Savings:  1- 20 MM
2. Salary Deferrals.  Say you're Manny.  You "only" received 11 MM+ of your 30 MM salary last year.  Now you're looking at the same proration happening to some extent in 2021.  Why NOT offer to defer 4,6,8 MM of your 2021 salary into 2022-2023 when you're more likely to receive it?  You still retain the "highest paid Padre" title, but you're more likely to actually receive all the $.  It's really pretty "win-win".  The same theoretically true on a smaller scale for Hosmer & Myers, but their shorter contracts limit what can be done.  Pomeranz as well.   Two issues for Pads: 1) Don't want to push TOO much $ into say 2022 when payroll likely to peak, and 2)  Players may want an assurance the team is actually going to use the freed up $ to opportunistically improve the team, NOT just cut payroll.  Potential Savings:  2 - 12 MM
3. Bullpen Trade/s.  Almost HAS to happen with the # of guys they have.  Big one I've harped on is Stammen + asset/s to free up some or all of his 4 + 1 MM buyout.  Would have to trade player/prospect to do so, which is painful, but if it was to free $ up to strengthen the MLB team it might be worth it.  Potential Savings:  2 - 7 MM (includes other RP's)
4. Big "Surprise" Trade.  Basically, this would be Myers.  I don't love the idea b/c selling into a weak market which just negates the 'buying' value.   Only likely if $ used in a major re-allocation like a big FA SP?  Potential Savings:  10 - 15 MM (in '21)

Quote from fenn68 on November 5, 2020, 6:59 am

Glass half empty ..... more 90% empty with a crack at the base and the last 10% leaking.

I see a long cold winter for everyone with minimal action by the clubs. The fact that zero teams claimed Hand at $10MM (one of the best closers) ... makes me believe that any trades that target moving a contract to clear payroll space will not happen. Stammen $5MM ($4MM plus a $1MM buyout of 2022) or Myers $41MM (includes $1MM buyout of 2023) would be hard to just give away if a team would take the contract ... not in this economic environment.

I expect a "hold" strategy for at least the next 3 to 4 months until there is clarity on a 2021 season. (and that may be the strategy for most of the MLB clubs which limits Preller's options).

In the near term the Padres (and all teams) probably just decide on DFAs to make room for Rule 5 adds (Nov 20) and then non-tenders (Dec 2) due to cost ... so more an issue of subtraction to save money and protection of prospects for the future. The exceptions may come for the cash flush teams (LAD, NYY, NYM) who will prey on the uncertainty of the market and try to sign "elite" FA at bargain level (still high price but under what a normal season may have yielded).

Likely to tender Davies ... at $8-10MM .... probably would have a trade market in 2021 if needed. Paddack, Gore, Patino, Morejon, Weathers, Baez fight it out for the three slots behind Lamet, Clevinger ... if healthy. I guess could flip that all around and just go with the plethora of "kids" and non-tender Davies to save money.

Pham is still on the bubble in my mind ... is he really worth $8MM in this market? Padres have to be evaluating the FA alternatives and their ability to sign them for less otherwise LF goes to Ona / Mejia / Allen / Mateo? Teams like "certainty" so likely a tender ... but $8MM is a lot.

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 5, 2020, 9:59 am

It's impossible to know what the current market is for these free agents without getting involved.

Even if it is just to get a gauge so you can make a good decision on your own guys(Pham/Davies etc)

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 5, 2020, 10:27 am

Pham is still on the bubble in my mind ... is he really worth $8MM in this market

YES.  His ZIPS projection is 2.3 WAR.  HAVE to view last year's Covid+ / limited mobility due to diving for a ball / broken hamate / getting stabbed as an exceedingly fluky outcome.  He still was hitting ball hard at both beginning & end of year (see below).  If Pham HAD played more of a season, his arb salary would have risen by millions.

Profar on surface LOOKS close at 1.9 WAR projection & an even lower K rate; his plate patience is a definite asset to the team.  BUT Pham's career OBP, OPS, wRC+ are much better; and the reason why is he has a 46%+ CAREER hard hit rate to Profar's 30%+.  That's a 50% difference over their entire careers.  Profar is never going to reach that.  He slashes the ball down the line all the time, never drives it to the gaps.  Seems like all his HR & XBH are within 10 feet of a foul line.

I also don't like the FA market relative to Padres situation:  Springer & Ozuna at the top, ONLY viable alternative Michael Brantley projecting for more than Pham, then "not a fit" anymore Bradley Jr, and Joc Pederson coming off a down short season...

...in the Pads $ situation, Profar may not be just the "best" alternative to Pham, he may be the only FA alternative.

Keep Pham & see what happens to Profar's value in FA.

Davies' ZIPS projection:  142 IP, 1.9 WAR, 3.98 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, .263 BAA       SHOULD be trade-able, but maybe a "meh" return if he is at the high end of his arb salary projection.   Hard to see a straight Non-Tender for either him or Pham.

Quote from fenn68 on November 5, 2020, 11:57 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 5, 2020, 9:59 am

It's impossible to know what the current market is for these free agents without getting involved.

Even if it is just to get a gauge so you can make a good decision on your own guys(Pham/Davies etc)

 

Agree and expect that the phone calls between clubs and agents are burning up the lines prior to Dec 2. Even if the clubs are not seriously considering pursuing any specific player ... getting the starting position of the agents tells them a lot.

The other element we just cannot know is the real view on dealing with the financials before some of the realities of 2021 play out ... yet the non-tender is Dec 2. It is possible that in a “normal season” the tender is a no-brainer, yes, but in today’s situation the non-tender saving money to give greater flexibility in running the organization is more valuable if things go south .... then scramble if needed if everything works out.

For the more devious, MLB clubs could want a mass number of non-tenders flooding the FA market in turn driving down the FA asking price on everyone. Also, if the expanded playoff are gone ... would the non-tender count go even higher (more FA) from teams that are not favorites for a playoff run and are hurting financially.

What actions by the clubs can over load the FA market ... then opt not to sign any FA until the structure of the 2021 season is clear (April?) ... then low ball the panicky FA looking for a job.