Quote from Brian Connelly on April 2, 2021, 11:44 am

Words I never thought I would type in my lifetime...   I have Padres 2021 Opening Day Payroll a tick over 183 Million!

I'm 3+ MM > Jeff Sanders' UT payroll due to:  $850K dead $ deferred salary to Ian Kinsler, 3 x $575K Avg salary for:  Wingenter, Baez, & Ona all on IL; $300K Minors salary for Brian O'Grady, & 4 x $80-120K (estimated) Minors salary for 4 players on 40-man (Espinoza, Humphreys, M. Thompson, Lawson).  Like Sanders, this is ACTUAL cash outlay in 2021, not prorated (bonuses over life of contract) for payroll cap tax purposes.   So Tatis counts 11 MM b/c that's what he gets in 2021; not "24+ MM".  SO many guys on IL that this # should shrink in near future as guys come off, get optioned down, eventually "roster crunched" DFA, etc.  But later in year guys will start hitting incentives in contracts, maybe a trade, so likely to rise by end of season.

2022 has projected as the peak salary season for a while now.  I actually think Padres may go into the luxury tax in 2022.  Kim's posting fee and apparently Tatis' entire 10 MM signing bonus have been or will be paid out in 2021.  So in 2022 Padres "save":

• -15.5+ MM  Tatis SB & Kim posting fee
• -11.1    MM  "Known" FA's:  Pham (8.9), Kela (1.2), Melancon (2.0 - 1.0 buyout = 1.0).  Could increase: due to club (Stammen, P. Johnson) & player (Profar) options

=    -26.6 MM   Payroll but losing starting LF &  2 back of Bullpen guys from 26-man roster.

Savings "used up" & then some by:

• +13     MM   Salary increases of 1 - 4 MM for:  P. Johnson, Kim, Snell, Pomeranz, Profar, & Tatis
• +'18'? MM   Arbitration increases:  Musgrove, Lamet, Strahm, Pagan, Caratini, Altavilla, Paddack, A. Adams, T. Hill,  Williams, Wingenter, Castillo.  Impossible to really project, will change.  Could end up much higher.

=    +'31' MM  Payroll.   SO NET:  +4-5 MM range but losing 3 guys from O.D. Roster. 

Salaries to "Big 4" & Signing bonus/Dead $ are unchanged in 2022.