Quote from fenn68 on August 10, 2025, 12:41 pm

Just something to consider as we speculate on future player movement / signings. IF the team and players really believe in the new CBA not being signed at the end of 2026 and then that is followed by a lockout / strike at some point before the season ... that may change strategy on contracts even this coming winter.

First if there is no CBA approved some different rules apply to roster movement (don't know what) but once a work stoppage occurs all transactions are frozen ... no movement.

Players do not get paid during a work stoppage ... so how are 2 year contracts viewed by the club and player this winter? Might a player actually want a 2 year deal this winter knowing that getting a contract next winter for 2027 (and clearly during the lockout) may reduce his opportunity to get a "fair" deal for the last part of 2027 with little time to negotiate ... maybe no pay in 2027 even after the lockout. Teams may also prefer a two year deal knowing once the lockout ends they have a team ready to activate. In both cases, what does that imply for the 2026 / 2027 Cash and subsequent AAV?

The bigger name players who will get long term deals are less an issue ... but those mid-range / fringe players have a difficult decision if they want some guarantee for any pay in 2027.

Diaz and the Padres. Padres have no #2 catcher and at 35 not a big demand for his skill set. Likely the mutual option is declined for 2026 but would it make sense (given the alternatives on both sides) to negotiate a "fair" 2 year deal?

Quote from Jeremy Hill on August 10, 2025, 12:59 pm

Diaz looks like a guy who will get a minor league deal with a chance to make a roster with a good spring too me. I don't think there's any chance he gets a multi-year deal.

Quote from fenn68 on August 10, 2025, 3:08 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on August 10, 2025, 12:59 pm

Diaz looks like a guy who will get a minor league deal with a chance to make a roster with a good spring too me. I don't think there's any chance he gets a multi-year deal.

Would agree based on the merits of the player ... but sometimes the circumstances of the team sets-up to surprise us. Of course, the key is the contract.

First, Diaz is going to look for a ML deal from someone ... and with a team where he has a good chance of sticking on the 26 man. Not easily convinced that a minor league deal will get him to the ML (and paid). A goodly number of teams need a #2 catcher (doubt he at this point he could do any better). So, his first move is FA and talking to other clubs and will not be in a hurry to commit.

Padres meanwhile will have no 40 man roster issue ... have no #2 catcher on the roster (I am writing off Campusano even though he is out of minor league options) ... so they will be looking at the FA and trade routes ... and given the payroll issues, an as cheap (or cheaper) player of equal or greater value. No guarantee there.

So, given those scenarios ... giving Diaz a ML contract (at a lower price than the option) might make some sense given his familiarity with the pitching staff and Niebla. Hard to see them doing much better given the payroll limits. The 2nd year was just a gimmick (given the expected work stoppage) to maybe get a lower AAV and some insurance of a 2nd catcher after the 2027 lockout).

Wild card is if the trade deadline discussions ... catchers came up (like Ecarra from NYY or Lee from CWS) and Preller "knows" he can swing a deal for one of them (maybe for an excess RP), then he might just pass. That would be my preferred option ... if feasible. Decent, cheap, long control seems to also fit Preller these days ... just can't wait too long to get a deal done.

Side: Reynolds, Marinaccio, Waldron, and Vasquez will be out of minor league options in 2026 and realistically only Vasquez is really needed while the SP ranks will be "thin". The other three are "fringe" and even if they made the 26 man would present a player management issue over a full season. Not going to yield much ... but only looking for a cheap decent #2 catcher ... so maybe with a minor league prospect (mid-range) that could work.

Quote from sebastian on August 15, 2025, 4:15 am

excitement is in the air for the 2026 Padres season—can't wait to see what the team has in store!

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 15, 2025, 9:36 am

Quote from sebastian on August 15, 2025, 4:15 am

excitement is in the air for the 2026 Padres season—can't wait to see what the team has in store!

Welcome aboard Sebastian!

Quote from ultratvfan on August 20, 2025, 5:31 pm

I thought the Padres had a pretty good rotation the first half of the 2025 season. But Vasquez struggles in the 2nd half and AJP traded Bergert.

The Padre's rotation needs to be addressed. The Padres will have Pivetta, Darvish and Musgrove. That leaves two spots. AJP need sto find a way to keep King. I don't want Cease back. Will Sears be under team control next season or is a FA?

The Padres have pretty good BP. Ithink Suarez has done a pretty solid job for the most part. He has blown ony 5 saves in 38 save opportunities. That is not bad. Also, he leads MLB with the most saves. I hope AJP finds away to keep him. If he does not return, then it will be likely that Mason Miller takes his spot.

Quote from fenn68 on August 20, 2025, 8:01 pm

Sears has 3 more years of control ... 2026 is ARB 1 for him so not too expensive.

Padres tricky issue will be money (both CASH and CBT threshold). Note that Pivetta, Machado, and Tatis all have significant cash salary increases built into their contracts for 2026. None of the Padres' FA to be will be signing on the cheap (or less than 2025).

I expect Cease (Boras agent), Arraez (cost exceeds production plus Sheets backfills), Suarez (age and replaceable by Adam, Estrada, Morgan, Morejon, or Miller). Diaz (replaced by Campusano or a league minimum pick-up), Iglesias (replaced by Wagner or a league minimum pick-up), Cortes (replaced by Sears or Vasquez).

I am sort of debating ... if only one larger contract to be doled out ... between King (never have enough pitching) or O'Hearn (cheaper than King and backfills Arraez to hold on to a long line up since zip in the minors). Love King BUT not sure a long term deal on a pitcher is a great risk given his only one season as a ML SP.

Really don't know what Preller is thinking BUT if the believes Miller can be a SP (like Lugo, King conversions) that sets up a Pivetta, Musgrove, Darvish, Miller, Vasquez / Sears starting rotation with still a strong pen. If he likes that, re-signing O'Hearn for 1B and have Sheets DH/LF would really hold a strong offense.

Then "overthinking" ... if that was the set-up ... would Preller trade Pivetta ($20MM then will opt out after the season) ... hopefully get some low cost future assets ... then sign King on a multi-year deal (probably a bit back loaded so 2026 may not be above $20MM). That stabilized the SP beyond 2026.

So, sign King and O'Hearn ... trade Pivetta ... let the other FA go ... sign some bench at or near league minimum.

 

Quote from fenn68 on August 21, 2025, 6:23 am

Think O'Hearn will be an interesting call on re-signing (or not) ... coming to an agreement on terms since at age 32 this is likely the last shot at a big deal for O'Hearn. Who is the real player ... not just we are seeing in this short window?

2023-25 ... BALT ...1274 PA ... 277/343/456 (123 wRC+)

2018-22 ... KC ... 1071 PA ... 219/293/390 (81 wRC+)

Big difference ... has he really improved or is being in BALT a factor? At 32, should we see regression in a long term deal?

Then add hitting v LHP:

2023-25 ... BALT ... 143 PA ... 256/324/450 (116 wRC+)

2018-22 ... KC ... 104 PA ... 169/244/257 (35 wRC+)

Another BIG difference on a relatively small sample size.

O'Hearn's camp will focus on a well above average hitter in the past 3 years ... ask for a bigger / longer term deal. Teams may be more cautious looking at his pre-BALT work and already being 32 along with being a 1B/DH. Not necessarily a big need across MLB for paying big money for 1B so that should somewhat depress his market (and contract).

3 years / $45MM????????? A Profar type deal from someone? Not likely more ... maybe less?

 

Quote from Randy Manese on August 21, 2025, 4:37 pm

O'Hearn mentioned in his interview, when comparing PETCO to Orioles Park in Camden Yards, that there was a wind tunnel pushing the ball toward RF in Baltimore.  Obviously, wasn't thinking about negotiating a future contract but you could draw the conclusion that this greatly helped his stats while in Baltimore.  Let's see how he finishes in PETCO this year before deciding upon pursuing him for another year or so.  Agree that he'll be looking for his last contract, but I think most teams who have seen him over his entire career will be hesitant to give him the really big bucks he or his agent may think he can get.