Quote from MrPadre19 on August 4, 2025, 11:55 am

We had him in Tyson Neighbors....then Trader Preller sent him packing.

Bradgely is a good choice but my guess is it will still be Miller until we can get a guy ready.

Doubt they want to start the season with a rookie Closer.

So probably Morejon unless/until a guy like Bradgely proves he can handle it

Quote from Randy Manese on August 4, 2025, 12:58 pm

If Miller converted to SP, then I'm thinking Estrada over Morejon as the primary closer.  Morejon has had a better year this year than Estrada but I still remember his long history of injuries prior to last year, so he'll get some opportunities just like this year.  Estrada has proven to be very durable and that's the kind of guy you want out there besides he has a little more swagger than Morejon.  Also, Morejon (like Adam) is in his walk year but have Estrada locked up for several more years so that also might play into choosing a closer.  Getting an extension for Morejon should be something Preller is working on but money is tight and Padres have had great success in the past in building bullpens from all different sources.

Padres bullpen should be very strong despite losing Suarez and probably Peralta (wouldn't mind losing Matsui but that's probably not going to happen).  Morgan is coming along and we still have Reynolds, Rodriguez and others down in El Paso and San Antonio that could force their way into the pen.  Also, while I liked Neighbors he has a history of arm injuries so I think he's a walking time bomb for Tommy John.  On the other hand, Garrett Hawkins already had his TJ surgery and is actually outperforming Neighbors this year.  Darkhorse for the 2026 bullpen may be Hawkins.

Quote from fenn68 on August 4, 2025, 1:04 pm

Closer ... might have a lot to do with what the Padres do over the winter in the SP competition ... especially if they don't re-sign King, Cease, and Cortes. I don't think a Pivetta, Musgrove, Darvish, Sears, Vasquez will excite them and maybe Waldron in reserve (note he has no option in 2026). If that is the set-up ... I would expect Miller to audition for SP (probably bumping Vasquez). Otherwise, it is Miller as closer ... but can's see the Padres doing enough to build a compelling SP rotation without Miller.

At that point, to start the season ... expect Shildt to go with Adam as the closer but heavy use of Estrada and Morejon late depending on the match-up until one emerges as the most reliable. All three have a ton of quality ML experience and that would be the safe approach.

The wild card for me is Morgan ... seems to have the stuff and presence to emerge into a closer role. Don't see Rodriguez, Pena, Castro ready yet (not on a contender).

Then the RP that is worth watching is Hawkins who just got promoted from FW to SA ... this season returning for TJ and was legitimately dominant in A+ and initially in AA. Long shot early but worth considering.

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Quote from fenn68 on August 4, 2025, 2:00 pm

Just to throw some alternative speculation to make any prediction more difficult ... If

1. The Padres are really needing to "juggle the roster" to stay within some tight budget, and
2. Padres will have needs on the offense to replace Arraez, O'Hearn, Diaz, Iglesias ... noting that after a hot start Sheets has really struggled over the past month ... replace with good but low cost replacements (nothing in house) and hopefully long control, and
3. The bullpen options are strong enough to satisfy the Padres,

Even after letting Suarez go ... would they consider trading Adam who only has one year control coming off an All-Star berth that should get him in the $7-8MM range in ARB ... but that combo would appeal to some team that really needs a closer / late inning RP. Padres should be able to get a useful, cheap, long control asset while freeing up payroll space for upgrades for other needs.

Assuming Miller is a starter ... end of game pen is Estrada, Morgan, Morejon then follow with some combo of Hoeing, Reynolds, Marinaccio, Rodriguez, Pena, Hawkins, Castro could still be effective.

 

Quote from LynchMob on August 5, 2025, 4:40 pm

https://www.mlb.com/video/garret-hawkins-22nd-consecutive-scoreless-appearance

Quote from fenn68 on August 8, 2025, 3:00 am

We probably should factor in the impact (at least speculated) work stoppage in 2027 (could easily be half or more of the season). Both teams and players will need to negotiate around that to their best benefit.

If I am a FA player ... probably want a larger payday in 2026 (or 2028 on a 3 year deal) and a lower 2027 since will not get paid during the work stoppage. Of course, teams want just the opposite.

Players will not get paid but teams will lose revenue ... yet still have to pay for a minor league season, scouts, management, et al so will some teams (likely the cash strapped teams) just not spend even in 2026 to build a reserve to help in the 2027 work stoppage. Keep in mind this is a cash flow issue and with some teams adding debt to cover may not be feasible given the MLB debt rules. Less buyers of FA may box them into lower one year deals ... making them more angry for negotiations?

Uncertainty of the rules of engagement under a new CBA. Some speculation that part of the demands for the union will be dropping the control years for 6 down to 5 and/or altering the Arbitration process ... either could impact the team/player view on signing longer term deals now. Also, the rules around "revenue sharing" will be debated ... the original objective was to get money to lower revenue teams to spend on player salaries. Obviously the paying teams never really liked that idea but the union may have bought into the theory. However, reality shows that a number of receiving teams are not boosting their payrolls accordingly ... so will the support disappear by the paying teams and the union (and some unknown structure replace it)? Pretty sure a number of other issues will also add to the uncertainty of the rules in the the new CBA. Uncertainty will make most of the teams "conservative" in their 2026 decisions ... yet for the legit contenders ... still want to construct a team to win.

Preller has done well in long term adds of Fermin and Miller bridging the issue and Laureano who is gone after 2026.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on August 8, 2025, 9:17 am

A lot to consider going into the 2026 season and a large part of that is not under Padres' control given assumed tight fiscal constraints.  Here is my guess of who is in play and what will happen:

Free Agents:

Cease - Padres will extend Qualifying Offer (QO) but Cease will reject.  Padres get compensatory draft pick because will get well over 25M over at least 4-5 years.

Arraez - Padres do not extend QO and allow market to dictate value.  50-50 chance Padres re-sign Arraez to a lower contract (thinking 12M max) for 2 years vice the 14M.  Wants to be here but has to fit Preller's number.

O'Hearn - 8M in 2025 and at 31, looking for last big contract and Padres cannot accommodate.  Gone.

Cortes - Trying to rebuild value to get contract over his 7.6M this year.  Toss-up as to whether he does that and if Padres can get a short term (1-2 year contract) at a reasonable cost (9-12M).  May depend on what happens with King.

Iglesias - Padres will let market dictate value but situation similar to Arraez; has to fit Preller's number.

Player Options:

Suarez - will opt out of 8M; Padres receive no compensation

Peralta - this time, will probably opt out of 4.45M contract; no compensation

Mutual Options:

King - will opt out of 15M contract and Padres will extend QO.  50-50 chance re-signs long term contract of over 23M for 4-5 years.  Padres receive compensatory pick if not re-signed.

Diaz - Padres will opt out of this contract and pay Diaz 2M buyout.

Team Options:

Laureano - Padres will pick up his 6.5M option and, depending upon what happens with King, try to get an extension in the same salary range they have paid Arraez.  It could come down to a choice between the two to keep some stability in the line-up.  To me, Laureano should have the advantage.

Hart - will not pick up his 5M option and pay his 500K buy-out, however, may try to keep him as a low cost depth option in either the rotation or long relief at just above league minimum.

Arbitration:

Expect all arbitration eligibles to be signed, which is Preller's past history, but could see a few on the move while may make an effort to extend Morejon prior to his FA year even though Boras is his agent.  Adam likely too costly to extend but Morejon will only be 27 next year and is our only reliable LHP in the bullpen so he becomes one of the priorities, in my opinion.

 

Quote from fenn68 on August 8, 2025, 9:53 am

Maybe just being pessimistic but my guess is that the Padres are too close on the Cash and CBA limits to do any one large contract (maybe not too many even low mid deals).

Agree on picking up the option on Laureano and do expect Diaz, Iglesias, Cease and Suarez to be gone ... think re-signing Arraez will cost too much even on a reduced AAV. Can't see them picking up Hart's option and given how he was used by the Padres this year ... he might look hard for a new home if he is relegated to a low end contract.

King is my one big question ... seems both sides would like to reach a deal and that could lead to a very creative contract with a "lower cash 2026-27" but big bumps for the following years (possible on player options). That would ... in the sort run ... keep Cash and AAV under control (but maybe a future issue).

However, even with that may need to clear some other payroll. Maybe trade Matsui (with a desirable prospect), maybe trade Peralta (if he does not opt out) ... my thought is they need to keep Cronenworth with Arraez / Iglesias gone. Not much else moveable with larger salaries.

One exception to the above ... mentioned this before ... would (should) the Padres trade Pivetta and replace him by re-signing King. (Musgrove replaces Cease). Pivetta salary jumps from $4MM to $20MM next season (although AAV stays the same). Pivetta will opt out of his contract after next season (his contract salary for 2027 drops) and even at $20MM one year of control for his level of performance will yield at least one good (low cost / controlled) player in return. Meanwhile re-signing King should be in the $23-25MM / 4-5 year range and the Padres would get top of the rotation arm under control for multiple years past the end of the Musgrove / Darvish contracts and adds some stability until the next wave of SP arrive.

Sort of finessing one year of Pivetta for multiple years of King and another asset. Would like both but trying to work around the payroll assumed limits.

Expect to see a winter of one year deals at the level of Sheets, Iglesias (on the good side) and Gurriel, Joe, Heyward on the bad side.

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 8, 2025, 7:04 pm

Has anyone heard anything about our new City Connects….or when they will unveail?

I assume we will have new ones next season?