Quote from fenn68 on July 18, 2026, 10:26 am

Quote from ultratvfan on July 17, 2026, 2:51 pm

If the Padres win at least 2/3 of their remaining games(44-22), they will finish with at least 92 wins and a good chance to earn a playoff spot.

Given how the other teams are playing … probably make the playoffs with 86 wins … with an easier schedule well within reach.

Quote from ultratvfan on July 18, 2026, 11:49 am

Stammen vs Tingler. Thoughts?

Quote from fenn68 on July 22, 2026, 5:25 am

The next 11 games prior to the trade deadline will be critical (and telling about the team).

The Padres are only 2 losses behind the last in WC team (PITT) ... 51 vs 49. Not a major deficit to make up ... but consider 4 other teams are challenging ... with 49 losses (same as PITT) are AZ and STL ... with 50 losses is STL ... and also with 51 losses is WASH.

So, have to watch out for any of those teams getting "hot" and vaulting into control of that last WC slot.

Padres do have a schedule in the next 11 that should allow them to remain in contention if not take that slot since their opponents are currently just "middling" in performance:

ATL ... 2 games

MIA ... 3 games (and on a big losing run)

COL ... 2 games (out of contention)

SF ..... 4 games (out of contention)

This could go any way ... in the hands of the Padre players to hit / pitch.

Quote from fenn68 on July 22, 2026, 6:03 am

In a sense, it is surprising that the Padres are only 1 game below .500 and only 2 losses out of a playoff slot ... considering their performance (pitching / hitting) for most of the season ... says something about the other teams I suppose.

Consider the following in relation to the other NL teams:

Month .... W/L (+/-) ... ERA (rank) ... OPS (rank)

MAR ...... 1-4 (-3) ........ 4.60 (12) ....... .515 (15)

APR ....... 18-7 (+11) .... 4.16 (9) .........  .727 (5)

MAY ...... 13-15 (-2) ..... 3.59 (8) ........  .616 (15)

JUN .......  11-15 (-4) .... 3.98 (3) ........  .695 (12)

JUL ........   7-10 (-3) .... 5.56 (14) ....... .782 (6)

YTD ........ 50-51 (-1) .... 4.21 (6) ......... .686 (14)

Except for APR (the winning month) ... Padres have been on a Yo-Yo ... plus pitching when bad hitting then plus hitting with bad pitching ... net losing.

Going forward ???? Hitting is trending upward and now hot but after a good run of net pitching has fallen apart in JUL (over worked earlier?). With limited trade chips have to target the projected weakness for the rest of the season AND projected competitive  team in the playoffs.

Given the early and current hitting strength (plus historical track record) ... I would put all my chips into upgrading pitching. (Plus hope that Pivetta ... targeting an AUG return ... come back in form). King is been really strong in his last 5 starts ... a strong Pivetta ... plus adding one "quality" SP add could be good in the playoffs. Would also try to land a solid RP rental.

Padres are tantalizing close ... we will see in the next 11 games .... but may be a window closing on playoff chances ... so could see them go (or at least try to) big at the deadline.

Quote from WindsorUK on July 22, 2026, 9:42 am

In my opinion, this is not a championship club, even with a new SP brought in at the deadline( which will cost us half our farm system!)

IF the bats continue to trend up, and IF Pivetta and Musgrove return, this group is good enough to make a run at a WC berth, which would be a GREAT result for this team.

Preller could even trade away guys like Adam and Matsui/ Peralta, and Jake and Xander, and STILL get to the playoffs this year.

100% against trading away any of our prospects( yes, I realize prospects are just that but SO many are producing for their current clubs whilst the guys we got are no longer here)

Cut costs, re-stock on the fly, and come back next spring ready to compete for a championship.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 22, 2026, 12:06 pm

If it were me I would see about trading guys like Morejon,Adam,Matsui,Peralta etc if you get even a halfway decent return in order yto improve the team for next season.There's not a guarantee that trading those guys hurts our 2026 anyway

DO NOT trade Miller and DO NOT trade Salas,Schoolcraft,Mayfield or Wideman.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 22, 2026, 12:13 pm

With the "better" Padre prospects (except for Salas) being at least 2-3 years away before any ML impact ... and none are truly TOP 100 types ... and with the good chance that King / Pivetta opt out and Musgrove never returns to form ... and Morejon, Adam, Laureano, Andujar, France FA ... and what the Padre have as trade chips off the ML roster (except for Miller) would not get a major prospect in return ... there is a good (very good chance) the Padres are not even in playoff contention in 2027 and 2028.

Next two years will have more holes to patch than available FA with any talent.

So, even if a very low probability of making it deep into the playoffs (but always a team can get hot at the right time) ... this could be the last hurrah for the departing ownership and the last chance for the aging Machado / Bogaerts if even a new window opens in 2029-30-31.

Guessing the Players always believe they can win and want to be buyers ... the "Old" owners want to go out on a high (and not care about next year) and want to be buyers ... the "New" owners may want to make good initial impression (should be approved in Aug but clearly have a voice in trade deadline decisions) and may also want to be buyers. So, unless a total collapse in the next 11 games, all the indicators are buyers.

The one "exception" is do they have the trade assets to actually out bid other teams for top talent ... probably not so maybe only some minor moves and essentially maintain status quo.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 22, 2026, 1:27 pm

The Padres have been “actively discussing” left-handed reliever Wandy Peralta in trade talks recently, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. There’s no indication a deal is close at this time.

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Hard to speculate on teams that would be interested in a LHRP enough to offer something worthwhile. Maybe an "equivalent" quality in return filling a bench need (e.g. replace Bowen). With both Laureano and Andujar out another bat might fit even if a fringe player.

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Before you say that Peralta is worthless junk ... consider these current "contenders" for the playoffs with LHRP ERAs greater than 4.00: TOR (6.24); PHIL (5.58); WASH (5.02); BALT (4.80); CLEV (4.23); STL (4.10); PITT (4.08); TB (4.07).

PERALTA is at 2.53 ... with that performance and that many contenders with clearly much worse performance out of their LHRP ... a market exists. Never underestimate how poor other teams are.

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Side thought ... Peralta has an opt out of his $4MMish deal for next season and given the need for LHRP across the league ... HE may just exercise it and try to leverage his 2026 against the need and actually do better or get a second year on the deal. That may factor into the Padres putting him into trade talks.

Quote from fenn68 on July 23, 2026, 1:25 am

USA Today just ranked the Padres farm system 27th in MLB (suggested it would be last if not for Salas). That does not bode well if the Padres want to be buyers ... all contender could comfortably out bid the Padres with a strong mix of prospects.