Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2026, 4:45 am

I know "short sample size" can be misleading (opponent, home vs road, etc) .... but time in this season is getting short for a team behind in the WC race.

Some of the recent commentary is suggesting the hitting it turning around and the pitching has collapsed. However, in the past 7 days the Padres went 3-4 ... not helping. However, of those games, it was more of the past not suggesting any turnaround.

Offense ... despite hot hitting by Machado, Tatis, and Campusano ... actually was last (in OPS) in the NL. The others who were hot earlier in the season have gone really cold.

Pitching ... surprisingly is 3rd best (ERA) in the NL.

So, effectively the same profile that created losing months in May - June has continued over the last 7 days.

Three home games vs TOR before the break then a long road trip after the break ... Padres have to start an extended winning streak now or the gap to the WC will be too large to overcome soon.

Quote from BoosterSD on July 10, 2026, 9:02 am

With as underwhelming as this team is performing this season, you really got to hope that Preller doesnt waste his prospect ammo on what is amounting to a lost season. This team just doesnt have it this season. Dont know why. The age of some of the players? Injuries? The manager? Just not sure what!

However, it seems pointless to chase it with a ton of trades at the deadline, especially if they are good prospects for rentals.

Quote from BoosterSD on July 10, 2026, 9:10 am

Reading on MLBTR and they mention that MIA might be buyers at the deadline as they are one of the hottest teams in MLB. Rosenthal mentions wanting upgrade the bullpen, the rotation, and 3B.

Do you think there is a world that Preller would look to move Machado? I know he was a Siedler favorite, and a fan favorite as well. However, he just turned 34 on a large contract. Machado is from Miami and its a strong possibility that the new CBA will have some kind of salary floor, which MIA is way under.

So MIA gets a strong defensive 3B that is still hitting for power this season, adds a big salary which will get the MLBPA off their back, and SD gets some payroll relief of an aging player.

Thoughts??

Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2026, 11:45 am

Quote from BoosterSD on July 10, 2026, 9:10 am

Reading on MLBTR and they mention that MIA might be buyers at the deadline as they are one of the hottest teams in MLB. Rosenthal mentions wanting upgrade the bullpen, the rotation, and 3B.

Do you think there is a world that Preller would look to move Machado? I know he was a Siedler favorite, and a fan favorite as well. However, he just turned 34 on a large contract. Machado is from Miami and its a strong possibility that the new CBA will have some kind of salary floor, which MIA is way under.

So MIA gets a strong defensive 3B that is still hitting for power this season, adds a big salary which will get the MLBPA off their back, and SD gets some payroll relief of an aging player.

Thoughts??

Chances are sub-zero. Picking up that large of a long term commitment does not fit MIA's approach ... Picking up 7 years at $39MM / year for an aging player ... NO. They can spend that and get multiple useful adds to their club if they needed to.

I suppose the Padres would consider moving Manny (but very very unlikely) unless they are just writing off the next few seasons.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 10, 2026, 11:52 am

Quote from BoosterSD on July 10, 2026, 9:10 am

Reading on MLBTR and they mention that MIA might be buyers at the deadline as they are one of the hottest teams in MLB. Rosenthal mentions wanting upgrade the bullpen, the rotation, and 3B.

Do you think there is a world that Preller would look to move Machado? I know he was a Siedler favorite, and a fan favorite as well. However, he just turned 34 on a large contract. Machado is from Miami and its a strong possibility that the new CBA will have some kind of salary floor, which MIA is way under.

So MIA gets a strong defensive 3B that is still hitting for power this season, adds a big salary which will get the MLBPA off their back, and SD gets some payroll relief of an aging player.

Thoughts??

Manny will be making almost 40m a year going forward. That's about half of the Marlins current payroll. I can't imagine the Marlins taking on that much money. There may be a salary floor coming. That doesn't mean any of the low spending teams are going to try to preemptively take on salary. Rosenthal says the Marlins will not be looking to add a big contract. I think there is almost no chance of Manny getting dealt.

Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2026, 12:40 pm

Side: would expect IF a salary floor came into place ... teams currently under would have "years" to move to that minimum or the minimum would phase in year to year over the CBA term.

Also, if that happened, the salaries of "low/mid-range" FA will jump with the under spenders having to deploy more money in competition with the over spenders for the same players ... same supply bigger demand. That may actually hurt a spender with locked in big contacts trying to add FA in that market (Padres?) ... worse with a salary cap.

Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2026, 2:49 pm

July is going to be challenge for Preller (and almost every other GM) on deciding whether to be a buyer or seller.

Right now, very few teams are clearly out ... and likely most are thinking as the Padres ... just one good hot streak get them into contention. So few are ready to sell and if they end up falling out probably not until the end of the month. Even the ones that would sell now ... do they have anyone other teams want and, if they do, they will hold out for an exorbitant price now ... maybe drop at the deadline. Basically a case for little trade opportunities until the end of the month.

Padres are one game under .500 and need to make up 6 games for a playoff slot (passing 5 teams) ... odds are not good but not impossible ... so, he walks the line ... especially the remaining games before the deadline swing between good teams and bad teams. Consider:

TOR Home (3 games) ... 5 games under .500

All-Star Break

KC Away (3 games) ... 18 games under .500 (but should set up the SP with their best after the break)

ATL Away (4 games) ... 16 games over .500 and playoff slot

MIA Away (3 games) ... 10 games over .500 and playoff slot

--- ONE WEEK PRIOR TO DEADLINE ---

COLO Home (2 games) ... 19 games under .500

SF Home (4 games) ... 15 games under .500

I guess after the ATL / MIA series we will be at the first decision point. On the road against playoff quality teams should be very reflective of where the Padres stand.

It becomes more difficult call IF the Padres are still "close" at that point and knowing the next 6 games are home against poor teams where a 6 game win streak COULD move them into real contention. How "close" is close enough?

Either scenario being a buyer is going to be difficult until the last minute as other teams sort out their status ... quality trade chips will have multiple suitors ... Padres have limited trade chips for quality ML talent. Not going to be easy for Preller to be a buyer.

However, if a seller ... even without too much ML talent to sell ... should be able to move players given a larger number of teams buying and therefore getting better returns than normal.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2026, 4:34 pm

Listening to sport talk show ... in a comparison of big spenders vs low spenders:

the top 5 payrolls collectively have LESS wins than the bottom 5 payrolls this season.

Why this is important ... got to think the MLBPA is going to use this to argue against a salary cap. "Proves" spending does not guarantee winning so why limit the earning power of the elite athletes for? Apparently not competitive balance. Maybe just to ensure the owners make more?

Quote from ultratvfan on July 12, 2026, 8:01 pm

The Padres, who gained two games on the Dodgers, who were swept by the Dbacks, open the post AS break in Kansas against the Royals, who have the worst record in MLB and followed by the Braves, who the Padres swept at home, in Atlanta.

The Dodgers on the other hand hit the road to play the Yankees and then the Phillies.