Quote from fenn68 on June 9, 2026, 4:04 am

Let us not forget that this core gave us four playoff runs in the last 6 years ... the best extended run in Padres history. So I would not trash the previous moves just because for two months of 2026 they have tanked (or are injured).

Since I am not a fan of long term contracts for "older" stars or pitchers ... we are seeing the usual result of trying to win now with the front end of long contracts and expecting drop offs as time goes by (see Machado, Bogaerts, Cronenworth, Musgrove, Darvish). Seeing this all over baseball since a lot of teams are using that (in my mind) faulty model.

In a sense, Padres have to shoot for the playoffs in 2026 (if anywhere near at the trade deadline) because (in my view) they cannot avoid a non-playoff spell starting in 2027 given aging of the contracted players and (other than Salas) no major influx of prospects for 3-4 years (that is maybe if the current crop develops).

Padres will remain a top 10 payroll even if they just maintain the current core (and they cannot get rid of them) but even if new ownership is willing to spend more (no idea if they are) who is out there on the FA market that is not "older" and has a great chance to be the next Bogaerts / Machado? Good chance more spending by the new owners will result in the next NYM. LAD get away with the spending because that is supported by one of the best group of MiL prospects either adding to the ML roster or used in trades (again Padres don't have that at this point).

Don't have a lot of trade chips in the minors ... and in a sense that is self defeating ... trading the future if worried about the future. Just makes the coming years more dire.

Dilemma ... but if close to making the playoffs have to go all in and try to catch lightning in a bottle in a last hurrah ... if not close (pretty subjective) need to sell off what you can for prospects that might help in future years. Either way see little way to make the next few years competitive unless the rest of the league is also not performing.

 

 

Quote from WindsorUK on June 9, 2026, 8:59 am

Of that core, only Machado has been productive during the whole 6 year run( Pitchers always injured, Bogie and Cronenworth replacement level players and FTJ out with drugs/shoulder/leg)

If you're going to spend, you need to spend wisely. Extending/signing Machado, Bogaerts and Darvish into their 40's is not that. Holding onto assets too long( i.e. Cease, Arraez, Suarez last year) is not that( be interesting to see if they move Adam, Pivetta before the trade deadline, seeing as neither one will be here next year),trading MLB top prospects, is not that.

Again, I've enjoyed the success but had our GM not traded away the farm and ran off 2 very successful MLB skippers( and hired 3 complete novices), maybe, just maybe our window would not be closing. A LOT of the players we traded away have become All Stars during that 6 year run( France, Munoz, Bednar, Wood, Abrams, Gore, Naylor not too mention Turner, Fried, and Grandal and X Edwards may get a nod this year).

We cannot compete financially with LA( can anyone?) so we need to be better at the business of baseball than they are. And that means getting the most out of your limited assets. You imagine the pitching staff Kevin Towers could have assembled had he been given AJ's pocketbook????

It's been a decent run. Now it's time for a GREAT run- new owners, new management, re-build from within, create a powerhouse that can compete for the next 10 years.

Quote from BoosterSD on June 9, 2026, 12:38 pm

While some like to blame Preller (and for good reason), lets not forget that he still takes marching orders from ownership. And Siedler wanted a parade before he passed. So perhaps Preller made some trades and signings that he normally would not have, trying to accomplish the goal of his boss.

Preller is still a good identifier of talent, and perhaps with new ownership who has big pockets and a slower timeline, Preller can walk the line between a mix of the right stars and keeping homegrown players.

So while I agree that he has made some moves that I did not like (Bogaerts), perhaps its too soon to run him out of SD. I would give him at least one season with new ownership. Just a thought.

Quote from fenn68 on June 10, 2026, 8:11 am

Some interesting analysis has come out this week on older (mid-30s) hitters being at historically low batting average / productivity.

Yes, "naturally" bat speed / reaction time beginning to decrease in the 30-35 age range then just gets worse. However, increasing the problem is the volume of pitchers throwing over 95 MPH. These older players can minimize the negative trend by a different (improved) training program but do most veterans get committed to that or just are stubborn to what got them earlier success? The article also suggest the pitchers now have better information on pitching strategy vs the time when these veterans were at their peaks.

As a reaction, many front offices are leaning towards younger player who have been developing against these faster velocities and more sophisticated pitching strategies.

Now spinning that to the Padres who have the oldest line-up in MLB and Manny, Bogaerts, Cronenworth in their mid-30s on long term big deals. Problems ahead?

If you are Preller, do those observations suggest you start focusing on adding youth and avoid (either by FA or trade) any players in their 30s ... especially on longer contracts? Does it suggest moving on from players in their early 30s (or sooner) either by letting go FA or trade? Fine line to walk and can do some gaming with players on short term deals (have to accept the realties of players available).

 

Quote from Jeremy Hill on June 10, 2026, 10:48 am

Quote from fenn68 on June 10, 2026, 8:11 am

Some interesting analysis has come out this week on older (mid-30s) hitters being at historically low batting average / productivity.

Yes, "naturally" bat speed / reaction time beginning to decrease in the 30-35 age range then just gets worse. However, increasing the problem is the volume of pitchers throwing over 95 MPH. These older players can minimize the negative trend by a different (improved) training program but do most veterans get committed to that or just are stubborn to what got them earlier success? The article also suggest the pitchers now have better information on pitching strategy vs the time when these veterans were at their peaks.

As a reaction, many front offices are leaning towards younger player who have been developing against these faster velocities and more sophisticated pitching strategies.

Now spinning that to the Padres who have the oldest line-up in MLB and Manny, Bogaerts, Cronenworth in their mid-30s on long term big deals. Problems ahead?

If you are Preller, do those observations suggest you start focusing on adding youth and avoid (either by FA or trade) any players in their 30s ... especially on longer contracts? Does it suggest moving on from players in their early 30s (or sooner) either by letting go FA or trade? Fine line to walk and can do some gaming with players on short term deals (have to accept the realties of players available).

 

I saw the same article. I think we all knew a fall off was coming at some point with the older bats on long term deals. Unfortunately it seems to have arrived earlier than hoped for Machado and Bogaerts. The jury may still be out on Cronenworth this year, but the early performance wasn't encouraging. With Merrill also struggling and Tatis still trying to find his power stroke it's easy to see why the offense has been so bad.

We could be in for a rough time waiting for some contracts to run out. We're going to be hamstrung by a very expensive underperforming core. That's going to be very difficult to overcome.

Quote from fenn68 on June 10, 2026, 12:10 pm

Yeh, seven more years on Manny and Bogaerts ... four more for Cronenworth. That could be very difficult to navigate for the organization and the fans. At least Merrill and Tatis are young and have a better chance to rebound / further develop.

Hard to see where to go ... need young, cheap, productive talent to balance the aging core but don't have the trade chips to land them (at least near term prospects). More money from the new owners might even make the problem worse ... who are the young productive players that will be FA ... any? Spend on the next round of Bogaerts just to spend and get even further down the rabbit hole with old unproductive players?

In the short run ... guessing get some rebound vets on low cost short contract (like Buehler, Canning, France, Andujar) and just repeat every year. Maybe doing more to make selling deals at the deadline for A ball upside prospects to boost eventually the system. Clearly draft and develop while not trading any plus prospects. Maybe be more aggressive in signing young talent out of Japan/Taiwan/Korea at both the ML and MiL levels.

May take some years to be truly competitive again but not sure of any other option.

Side: IF the Padres are really effective in developing the new core of younger players ... I could see them going the Hosmer route on Manny and/or Bogaerts (if they continue to regress) and just release them and eat the contract ... but that is at least five years away.

Quote from WindsorUK on June 12, 2026, 2:10 am

9 game road trip- The O's are...meh, but they are at home so should have an advantage. Do we ever play well in St. Louis? There is an organisation to model yourself after! The Rangers....again, meh, but again they are at home so would think they have an advantage.

Do any of our players have a lot of success in any of these buildings? If so, hope it continues.

And then we return home. I'd suggest we have an advantage in it being our ballpark but this group never seems to take advantage of whatever those advantages may be. We're the only team in MLB with a winning record yet not a winning record at home.

So the next 20 games( after the 6 game homestand, we head to Wrigley for a pair, then back to Philly for 3)should really give us an idea what happens at the trade deadline.

Quote from ultratvfan on June 12, 2026, 4:55 am

We don't play Philly anymore in the regular season.

Quote from MrPadre19 on June 12, 2026, 7:37 am

Guys I'm just as frustrated with the lack of offense from the "big guys" in the lineup but I think it's premature to say Manny is suddenly in a huge decline due to age.

Hitters go into funks....I'm gonna try and believe that he still has 2-3 "good" seasons left in him.

His power is still decent he just has fewer singles and doubles.

His avg. is toast for this season but if he can at least get back to close to normal he may be able to get it back to the .240-.250 range....maybe.

My guess is he comes to Camp next year in better shape also.

He's gotta do more at his age to stay in playing shape to be sure and I'm not sure he's done that yet.