Quote from BoosterSD on August 14, 2025, 5:29 pm

Quote from fenn68 on August 14, 2025, 3:24 pm

The Padres announced that right-hander Michael King has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to left knee inflammation, retroactive to August 11th. Right-hander Randy Vásquez has been recalled in the corresponding move.

Not good.

Definitely a tough break, Vasquez has done fairly well for about 4-5 innings, so could be fine.

Hopefully King is ready for the playoffs.

Quote from Randy Manese on August 14, 2025, 7:01 pm

Vasquez pitched on Sunday, 10 Aug, in El Paso so he will be on his normal 5 days' rest.  Unfortunately, he was not that effective.  Hopefully, he'll revert to the form has shown most of the year with the Padres and keep us in the game against the Dodgers.

He's pitched against them twice this year in mid-June and was not involved in the decision, however, the Padres lost both games with Morejon taking the loss in the first and Estrada in the second.  Let's turn it around tomorrow!  GO PADRES!

Quote from brent wolff on August 15, 2025, 5:44 am

A poster named John A. did some really interesting research info. on Arraez.  I agree with his conclusion, that Arraez should at the very least, be batting lower in the order and probably more importantly, why he should not be resigned.  I like our D much better when either O'Hearn or Sheets is at 1B additionally.  Here is a copy of his post.  Let the discussion begin.

If it’s not a weakness to keep starting Arraez at 1B or DH, despite a season .719 OPS and 99 OPS+, batting him high in the order surely is one.

Most folks refuse to view him in terms of run production, choosing to stay in love with his batting average & contact rate.
But in plain fact, he’s a poor offensive player.
--------------------
SD’s offensive surge this month is 63 runs in 12 games.
Arraez played every inning and batted more than anyone else in that span;
batted 2nd in 11 games, 1st once.
Of those 63 total runs, he’s scored 3 (tied for 8th on the team) and driven in 4 (tied for 7th).
His 7 Runs+RBI ties for last among 10 regulars.

Even measured by “rate of scoring per time on base,” he’s last among 10 regulars during this high-scoring stretch -- at *half* the total rate of those other nine.

(Dennis Lin noted that Tatis & Machado also have slumped in this stretch.
Yet each still has put more runs on the board than Arraez, in fewer PAs.)

He’s not a good offensive player.
--------------------
Let’s examine his spot in the order:
Arraez mainly bats #2 this year, starting 98 of their 121 games in that spot, taking 80% of its PAs.
How does that spot for the Padres rank among MLB teams?
-- #26 in OPS
-- #27 in RBI
-- #28 in Runs
-- #29 in Runs+RBI per time up.

And it’s not a case of surrounding spots holding #2 down.
The Padres’ #1 and #3 spots rank well in those measures:
-- #1 spot ranks 7th in OPS and in Runs+RBI per time up.
-- #3 spot ranks 8th in both.

That’s a very weird distribution among #1-3, if your #2 hitter is actually good.

A typical team this year has gotten almost 13% of its Runs+RBI from the #2 spot.
Padres rank 28th there, just over 10%.
Their shares from the #1 and #3 spots rank 4th & 5th.

Some folks just won’t believe that low power from a high spot is a drag on the overall offense.
But SD’s mere 6 HRs from #2 is the fewest by any team’s #1 through #6 spots;
and their puny 21 extra-base hits is 4th-fewest by *any* spot of any team.

Their run production from that spot is quite weak.
Might those facts be related?
--------------------
Arraez fans point to his good batting average with RISP. Yet:

-- He’s brought home just 12.8% of all runners on base, just over 1/8.
That ranks #164 among the top 200 in PAs, and 7th among SD’s 9 regulars.

-- His Win Probability Added is mediocre -- 8th on the team, 93rd among MLB qualifiers.
His WPA was negative last year, despite leading the NL in batting average & hits, and a great BA with RISP.
His total WPA since 2023 ranks #116 among the top 200 in hits --
despite being 1st in hits & BA.

Some will choose to believe his poor WPA is a fluke.
But in this offensive era:
-- Softly hit balls don’t drive many runs in; Arraez has the lowest hard-hit rate, by far.
-- Getting yourself onto 1st base a lot, with no more than average speed, doesn’t generate runs as you might expect; Arraez’s 52 Runs rank 4th on the team, 95th in MLB -- despite batting 2nd, and ranking 47th in times on base.
-- *Just* putting the ball in play at a high rate doesn’t correlate with good scoring.

Arraez’s most notable “good” traits -- low K rate, lots of “productive outs” -- are reflected in SD’s team rates:
-- 2nd-lowest K%
-- #1 rate of “productive outs”
Yet they’re #22 in scoring this year, even with this recent surge.

And if you think that’s some kind of fluke --
KC has the 3rd-lowest K%, and the 3rd-worst scoring.
--------------------
With the Padres now a good bet to reach the postseason, it would be wise to reflect on Arraez’s consistently low impact -- and his career postseason line:

Very few strikeouts, of course -- just 4 Ks in 58 trips -- but what has that yielded?
-- .232 BA (13 for 56) ... 1 RBI, 5 Runs ... 3 GIDP ... -0.4 WPA.

Last year alone, just 1 K in 31 trips ... yet:
-- .226 BA (7 for 31, all singles, no walks) ... no RBI, 4 runs ... 2 GIDP ... -0.2 WPA.

Act now, before it’s too late.
If you can’t replace him in the lineup entirely, at least put him down in the order.
He’s not helping now; and he’s not likely to help.

With how analytical the Padres front office is, I don't think these numbers are a surprise to them, so why do Arraez keep getting a pass?  Please share your thoughts.

Note: I'm the one that added the bold face of his overall thoughts, there was no bold face in John A.'s original post. Thanks & Go Pads!  Beat LA!

Quote from fenn68 on August 15, 2025, 7:27 am

Agree that the Padres should not resign Arraez ... he just does not fit PETCO/NL West/Padres (and we have had enough time for the evaluation). In the short run, not sure they want to mess with a winning formula (despite the stats) given that moving Arraez out of #2 and someone else in alters the success in another part of the line-up ... and with no guarantee that whomever they move will not have his game altered by batting #2.

Keep in mind that prior to SD he had a streak where he delivered WAR at 3.2 -  4.1 - 4.6 even with poor defense ... with SD about a 1.0. Better BA/OBP/SLG before. So, probably less negative about Arraez as a player and just recognize sometimes the fit is just wrong ... and in this case it clearly is.

What is the other part of this analysis ... who moves up to #2 and who replaces that player from wherever they were hitting ... and how does that impact that part of the line-up ... net better or worse? If Arraez benched ... who gets a full time role ... where do they bat in the line-up ... expected productivity? That is a lot of unknowns coming into play for a team with the 2nd best record in the NL and currently winning.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on August 15, 2025, 9:14 am

To keep Shildt's R/L/R preference, the easiest shift is to switch Arraez with Cronenworth.  Cronenworth sees a lot of pitches and has some experience in the #2 hole but with only modest results - he seems more comfortable batting in the lower third of the line-up.  Nonetheless, I believe he is now a better hitter than he was in 2023, which is the last time he had a serious number of AB's hitting second.

My other choice for the #2 hitter is Laureano - this guy really knows how to hit, uses the whole field, has a good eye at the plate and has some serious thump in his bat.  However, if you switch him out with Arraez might impact that lower part of the order that is doing so well currently.  My third choice would be Merrill but the downside of him hitting #2 is that he doesn't draw many walks and, similar to the case for Laureano, that would likely cluster RH batters and LH batters further down the line-up since you're not likely to hit Arraez in the 4-6 slots (although he has hit 4th this year and hit .361 with a 771 OPS!).

In truth, as long as the Padres keep winning, Shildt is unlikely to mess too much with the line-up.  Players are seemingly comfortable where they are in the line-up and it is not like Arraez is not trying hard or lacks passion or intensity in his AB's.  Agree the money that would go to re-sign Arraez should go elsewhere and we'd probably get a more productive 1st base with the platoon of Sheets and Campusano in 2026.  Who will bat #2?   That will likely emerge in spring training - not that concerned about it now even with those statistics above.

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 15, 2025, 9:34 am

As long as it isn't Kings arm.....but the timing sucks.

Two series against the dodgers with no King now.

 

Quote from fenn68 on August 15, 2025, 10:22 am

Quote from Randy Manese on August 15, 2025, 9:14 am

To keep Shildt's R/L/R preference, the easiest shift is to switch Arraez with Cronenworth.  Cronenworth sees a lot of pitches and has some experience in the #2 hole but with only modest results - he seems more comfortable batting in the lower third of the line-up.  Nonetheless, I believe he is now a better hitter than he was in 2023, which is the last time he had a serious number of AB's hitting second.

My other choice for the #2 hitter is Laureano - this guy really knows how to hit, uses the whole field, has a good eye at the plate and has some serious thump in his bat.  However, if you switch him out with Arraez might impact that lower part of the order that is doing so well currently.  My third choice would be Merrill but the downside of him hitting #2 is that he doesn't draw many walks and, similar to the case for Laureano, that would likely cluster RH batters and LH batters further down the line-up since you're not likely to hit Arraez in the 4-6 slots (although he has hit 4th this year and hit .361 with a 771 OPS!).

In truth, as long as the Padres keep winning, Shildt is unlikely to mess too much with the line-up.  Players are seemingly comfortable where they are in the line-up and it is not like Arraez is not trying hard or lacks passion or intensity in his AB's.  Agree the money that would go to re-sign Arraez should go elsewhere and we'd probably get a more productive 1st base with the platoon of Sheets and Campusano in 2026.  Who will bat #2?   That will likely emerge in spring training - not that concerned about it now even with those statistics above.

Hitting #2 ... just from my anecdotal memory ... seems to be an issue no matter who gets dropped into that slot. I remember a few years back a similar debate as players were not productive in that slot. No logical reason why ... at least in my mind but just is.

I did think about Cronenworth, but hitting 8th has him at his most productive all season and now the bottom of the order is producing runs. Sort of the same with Laureano, O'Hearn, Merrill, Sheets ... all are productive in impacting runs scored in the middle / bottom of the line-up ... what is gained / lost if any of them are moved?

Actually hitting #2 is a bit unusual for Arraez since most of his career he has lead off ... and produced much better. So, how much of Arraez' lower production is from coming to SD vs not leading off and batting 2nd? Not the best time in a pennant race to experiment to find out.

Did see some speculation he could end up with a Profar type deal ($45MM/3 years) ... that will not be with the Padres with that money re-deployed for other needs. Working thesis is Sheets takes over 1B in 2026 while the Padres seek the 9th hitter for the line-up no matter the position (given no bench now).

Quote from fenn68 on August 15, 2025, 10:31 am

King has missed 3 months ... and now another IL stint.

First, what are the odds of him returning AND being effective in 2025 (was not in the game back this week)?

Second, how does his injury lost 2025 coming off an outstanding 2024 (but first as a full time starter) impact him and other teams in sizing his FA deal. How much is any team (including the Padres) wanting to gamble on a long term commitment if there is an increased chance of him not being durable? Some teams will not care ... others will ... but net will that lower the value of his new deal?

With the presumption the Padres are pushing the red line on payroll ... can they afford to be wrong on a long term commitment?

Quote from Jeremy Hill on August 15, 2025, 11:00 am

Arraez should drop way down in the lineup against lefties. Ideally he would come off the bench. The problem is that the alternatives at 1B aren't much better. O'Hearn has solid looking numbers, but he was so heavily shielded in Baltimore that going 2-2 with a HR, 2B, and a BB in 3 PAs since joining the team took his OPS against lefties from .667 to .789. He's at .606 for his career. Sheets is at .656 on the year and .534 for his career. Arraez is at .643 on the year and .675 for his career. It's not a very inspiring group and they seem pleased enough with Arraez's defensive progress to keep him in there over either of the others.

I would like to see Arraez drop towards the bottom of the lineup with Bogaerts or Laureano sliding into the 2 hole against lefties. I don't think L/R balance is as important against a lefty starter.

Arraez is still very productive against right handed pitching. I disagree with the notion that he's not a good offensive player. He just really should be a platoon player in my opinion. I also disagree with the idea that he doesn't fit Petco. He's hitting .315/.343/.425 at Petco this year. That's a very good line and much better than what he has managed on the road. Only Tatis and Machado have been better of the guys who have been here all year. If you want to get even more granular he's at .322/.352/.456 against right handed pitching at Petco. Tatis is the only one who has been better.