Quote from fenn68 on July 11, 2025, 3:43 pm

Morejon added to the All-Star team replacing Wheeler.

So, three Padre RP are All-Stars ... Morejon, Adam, and Suarez. Good on them.

Quote from Randy Manese on July 12, 2025, 2:50 am

While they deserve the honor of being named an All-Star, I was hoping those arms would get some much needed rest during the break.  Shildt has worked them hard and both Adam and Estrada have shown some signs of overwork recently as their control has not been that sharp.  Shildt is going to have to trust Hoeing and Morgan a little more from the right side in higher leverage situations to keep those RH all-star arms fresh.  Still think Adam is a prime trade chip to acquire a proven bat - he still has one year of control left and his arbitration numbers will probably rise to around 6M in 2026.  Reynolds or Nunez can take his place on the roster but Shildt will have to find someone else he is comfortable with in high leverage situations.

With regard to Murphy, don't see Preller spending 15M for the next 3 years on a catcher who may be on the offensive decline when we have SP uncertainty plus the potential loss of Arraez after 2025 ends.  Next couple of weeks could be very interesting to see what Preller is willing to give up to try to improve the offense.

Quote from fenn68 on July 12, 2025, 4:29 am

Even though Adam (or Estrada) would be good trade chips at the deadline ... doubt Preller will break up that end of game strength. One hang-up would be that the most likely buyers would be contenders who will not give up an impact ML bat. Add that if Preller is also looking ahead ... Suarez is likely to opt out and not be re-signed (money, age).

If he goes the marginal upgrade route because that who becomes available ... for what he is willing to trade ... OK with that and he can regroup in the winter for 2026. As much as we want a major upgrade ... some other team(s) have to be willing to trade ... if they have a legit upgrade ... at a reasonable price. A bit pessimistic on that score.

However, for someone more impactful and considering King may be back near the end of the month, Darvish is back, and Bergert looks to be ML quality for at least a #5 ... might he dangle Vasquez or Kolek? Both low cost and long control which could appeal to a lot of teams (contenders and non-contenders) who need middle / bottom of the rotation arms. Could the Padres be a good playoff team with King, Pivetta, Darvish, Cease, and Bergert?

Another route is dealing Cease (expensive / rental) likely would yield a prospect(s) that if not direct 2025 upgrades possible flip assets to get that upgrade for 2025. Alternatively, might get a useful prospect for 2026 ... save a few million for 2025 and if they are squeezed on payroll open some room for an upgrade salary from a different source. Could the Padres be a good playoff team with King, Pivetta, Darvish, Bergert, Vasquez (or Kolek)?

Preller is usually able to jump for option to option as the market develops to his liking ... so this could go a lot of ways.

Quote from fenn68 on July 12, 2025, 4:57 am

Clearly winning in 2025 is the priority and the Padres are well positioned but as Preller has repeated said the also looks to keep the Padres contending every year.

With that in mind, wonder how he factors in the signing (or not signing) FA to be Arraez, Cease, King, Suarez (opt out) in who he trades or who he adds? As a noted before keep this same team will increase CASH payroll a net of about $50MM ... and that is not going to happen. (note: big cash increases for Pivetta and Machado built in ... FA to be King and Cease will command big increases).

Safe bet Cease will walk (Boras his agent) ... likely Suarez is let go (Padres have younger, cheaper alternatives). Then for me, gets a bit trickier. Padres need offense going forward and Arraez provides some but he currently makes $14MM and that is a lot (probably too much) for a singles hitter at 1B ... he will likely seek a multi-year deal at near that AAV level. King ... elite SP but are they worried about his health? He will command a multi-year deal (5?) and an AAV in the mid-20s. Yes, never have enough pitching.

I just accept the payroll will be a limiting factor and even a strong offensive core money needs to be spend on C, LF, and if Arraez walks  then 1B plus a better bench. I do fluctuate back and forth but today favor re-signing King (if he is willing) over re-signing Arraez. His upside as an elite SP is just worth the risk of injury when combined with Pivetta (opt out after 2026), health / age of Darvish, unknown of Musgrave's effectiveness on his return.

If Preller goes that way, might open up trading some out of the SP mix and with the money remaining in the budget focus on "balanced" offense upgrades ... e.g. no one high paid player but a series of good players to fill the holes and lengthen the line-up.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on July 12, 2025, 8:25 am

Campusano is still the Padres best hitting prospect but he needs some love from Shildt.  If Shildt is unwilling to put him at catcher, does he alternate at 1st base/dh with Arraez and Sheets becomes the "permanent" LF for the near term?  If Campy is used as a trading chip the return for him would not be great so he probably is worth more to the Padres as a low cost replacement for Maldonado - Padres past record with Campy catching is not awful and didn't he catch Cease's no-hitter?  This also highlights the Arraez situation - 14M for a singles hitter with no speed or power and who doesn't hit that well in PETCO should be a no-brainer to trade or let him go to FA.  I'd rather have Chandler Simpson in LF and have a true base-stealing threat in the line-up - missing that option with Ha-Seong Kim gone and the pressure it puts on the other team's defense.  Let's see what happens with Campusano but he has little to prove in the PCL and is out of options next year.  I think Preller wants him up but doesn't want to interfere with Shildt's control of the team - give Campy a chance as a regular in the line-up before we write him off completely.

Quote from WindsorUK on July 12, 2025, 9:44 am

100% buy into the speed idea. Every team we're facing lately has speed at the BOTTOM of the lineup.

Gotta press the opposition somehow. We don't have thunder in the bats, might as well use lightning in the feet!

Quote from Stergios on July 12, 2025, 9:47 am

Quote from Randy Manese on July 12, 2025, 8:25 am

Campusano is still the Padres best hitting prospect but he needs some love from Shildt.  If Shildt is unwilling to put him at catcher, does he alternate at 1st base/dh with Arraez and Sheets becomes the "permanent" LF for the near term?  If Campy is used as a trading chip the return for him would not be great so he probably is worth more to the Padres as a low cost replacement for Maldonado - Padres past record with Campy catching is not awful and didn't he catch Cease's no-hitter?  This also highlights the Arraez situation - 14M for a singles hitter with no speed or power and who doesn't hit that well in PETCO should be a no-brainer to trade or let him go to FA.  I'd rather have Chandler Simpson in LF and have a true base-stealing threat in the line-up - missing that option with Ha-Seong Kim gone and the pressure it puts on the other team's defense.  Let's see what happens with Campusano but he has little to prove in the PCL and is out of options next year.  I think Preller wants him up but doesn't want to interfere with Shildt's control of the team - give Campy a chance as a regular in the line-up before we write him off completely.

I’ve been hoping for a Brooks/Campusano platoon at DH.  They need to actually give them 50 to 75 AB’s each to see what they can do though, and not just send them back to AAA after 15 AB’s.

Quote from fenn68 on July 12, 2025, 10:49 am

At his point ... Brooks, Johnson, and Wade are just giving zero offense and consider they are (have been AAA players heading past their prospect prime) ... have no faith that any of them even getting more ML AB will unleash some productivity. None are even close. At least Iglesias shows some life in his offense.

To that end, I would bring up Campusano as the DH and let him have a run vs RHP/LHP ... OK with Sheets in LF and totally fine with Arraez at 1B given the alternatives. Campusano can't do worse that what they have and at least he has a ML history of hitting .250ish. I would in 2025 keep him away from catching ... he is bad vs the other two and don't want to give the pitchers any reason to have more problems than they do today considering still in a playoff push.

See what moves they make at the All-Star break ... players up / down even if no deals. One roadblock to Campusano that could happen is signing LeMahieu as a FA after he clears waivers (league minimum cost / no commitment). He would step right in as a 1B/DH starter. He was hitting well this year (better than anyone he would replace on the Padres).

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 12, 2025, 1:17 pm

Boston has lost another SP for the season. They are in a similar position as the Padres ... on the bubble of a wild card birth.

Boston has surplus OF / offense ... Padres could have some SP available for deals if they believe King will be back soon and Darvish will remain healthy. So seems like a potential match of trading partners.

Duran has been of interest to the Padres but that would take a pretty big package beyond one of the SP the Padres may be willing to deal. How about an under the radar gamble with a AAA OF ... Garcia ... who I believe is now in the Top 100, RHH doing well this year ... could help 2025 (given the incumbents) but then 2026 and beyond a 6 year control low cost LF might make filling out the next rosters easier.

At this stage would go Cease for Garcia giving BOST a major immediate upside potential and SD long run potential. Plus SD would save about $4MM the rest of the season, so if strapped for CASH that can be deployed to an additional upgrade.