Quote from Stergios on April 13, 2025, 11:50 am

Quote from fenn68 on April 13, 2025, 8:32 am

Quote from fenn68 on April 5, 2025, 2:30 pm

Something to watch over the season ... Arraez' ability to hit at PETCO.

From 2022-23, Arraez has much better stats in HOME games vs AWAY games (both were excellent).

In 2024, he continued to hit in AWAY games (320 AB ... .359 BA / .841 OPS) BUT at HOME ... some in Miami ... a major drop-off (317 AB ... .268 AB / .635 OPS). Add that his start to 2025 at PETCO was a disaster and in CHI had two hits.

Padres are saying all the right things about how much the like him BUT if this PETCO pattern holds ... the idea of re-signing Arraez is getting less appealing. If they let both Arraez and Cease go FA ... might be in a better financial position to go after a re-signing of King while dropping back under the luxury tax threshold.

Note that Arraez is currently making $14MM ... so will not re-sign cheaply unless he goes FA and finds no takers. Preller can probably do a lot to improve the team (and replace Arraez) if he has that $14MM+ to work with. All this assumes Arraez' PETCO pattern holds for 2025.

Just something to watch.

Just a follow-up based on Baseball Reference data by ballpark ... career for Arraez:

Previous HOME parks

In Miami (434 PA): .842 OPS / 114 tOPS+

In Minn (761 PA): .822 OPS / 109 tOPS+

But

AT PETCO (307 PA): .602 OPS / 53 tOPS+

Not small sample sizes ...

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on April 13, 2025, 8:32 am

Quote from fenn68 on April 5, 2025, 2:30 pm

Something to watch over the season ... Arraez' ability to hit at PETCO.

From 2022-23, Arraez has much better stats in HOME games vs AWAY games (both were excellent).

In 2024, he continued to hit in AWAY games (320 AB ... .359 BA / .841 OPS) BUT at HOME ... some in Miami ... a major drop-off (317 AB ... .268 AB / .635 OPS). Add that his start to 2025 at PETCO was a disaster and in CHI had two hits.

Padres are saying all the right things about how much the like him BUT if this PETCO pattern holds ... the idea of re-signing Arraez is getting less appealing. If they let both Arraez and Cease go FA ... might be in a better financial position to go after a re-signing of King while dropping back under the luxury tax threshold.

Note that Arraez is currently making $14MM ... so will not re-sign cheaply unless he goes FA and finds no takers. Preller can probably do a lot to improve the team (and replace Arraez) if he has that $14MM+ to work with. All this assumes Arraez' PETCO pattern holds for 2025.

Just something to watch.

Just a follow-up based on Baseball Reference data by ballpark ... career for Arraez:

Previous HOME parks

In Miami (434 PA): .842 OPS / 114 tOPS+

In Minn (761 PA): .822 OPS / 109 tOPS+

But

AT PETCO (307 PA): .602 OPS / 53 tOPS+

Not small sample sizes ...

 

And you’d think that he’d thrive at PetCo.

Quote from LynchMob on April 13, 2025, 9:43 pm

How long before Oscar is the full-time LFer?

Quote from Randy Manese on April 14, 2025, 12:25 am

We all know that the 2025 Padres we see on the field right now (even assuming a quick return of Merrill and Cronenworth) will not be what we see at the end of the season.  This 1/10 of the season has been fabulous but we've only played 2 teams that had/have an above .500 record.  We know from previous bullpen failures that we are going to have games slip away despite Shildt making all the right moves.  We're playing with 2 or more position players that might turn over as early as the middle of May.  Beginning Monday, we face the club with the best road record and then go to tough places to play in Houston and Detroit - our record could be much closer to .500 than .800 when that road trip is done.

However, despite holes in the offense, some inconsistent or overachieving starting pitching and a relatively easy first 16 games, I feel a great camaraderie and vibe among the players and coaching staff that will certainly  work in their favor when adversity strikes.  Great pitching and great defense will usually keep us in most games this year, even though some of the parts may change.  I still look for them to get a significant return for Cease at the trading deadline and possibly deal Suarez and Peralta before that -  King is the real deal and he will prove more valuable in an extension than Cease.  By that time we should have Darvish back, along with Waldron and possibly Kolek that would make the trade easier to swallow.  Moreover, our best minor league RP are Francis Pena and Bradgley Rodriguez, both RH, allowing the bullpen to not lose any of its effectiveness.

I still predict that we will surpass our number of victories in 2024 and many in baseball will question how did the Padres do it.  It all comes down to that team cohesion supported by the best fan base in baseball!  GO PADRES

Quote from fenn68 on April 14, 2025, 3:39 am

If the Padres are in a legit playoff run at the trade deadline ... can't see them trading any significant current player off the roster. Players (if they are doing well) but only 2025 control (Cease, Suarez, Peralta, et al) likely would not get back equivalent 2025 production ... and might cost them the playoffs (or going deep in the playoffs).

The teams that would deal for them as "rentals" would be contenders who would not give up anyone helping the contend.

Hard to envision with this roster ... even with the holes at the bottom of the line-up ... not being in contention for a playoff slot at the trade deadline.

I see a few months of re-evaluation for LF and DH ... how good to those players have to be to at least give legit support to the "core 6"? Can Heyward, Gurriell, Lockridge, and Sheets hold those roles? Can Gonzales, Joe, Campusano, Ornelas, or Perlaza provide an upgrade? Is JD Martinez a realistic FA pick-up mid-season (DH who crushes LHP)? Do the Padres have a legit prospect they can (would) trade for a quality upgrade?

By mid-season a starting rotation of King, Cease, Darvish, Pivetta SHOULD be compelling enough to hold contention ... then we will see who among Vasquez, Hart, Waldron, Kolek can provide a legit #5.

I see more a Preller add mode at the deadline.

Quote from Randy Manese on April 14, 2025, 11:24 am

As the season moves on, I see Estrada and Adam consistently outperforming Suarez, whose injury history and failure to close big games in the past make him less valuable we play longer.  Estrada is my first choice as a closer but that role could be filled by Adam (1 more arbitration year) or Morejon (also 1 more arb year); my guess is that we may be able to retain one of the two.  I mentioned others who could fill the high leverage roles, especially from the right side - they are not as far away as we think.

It's more of a gamble on the SP side but Cease's potential hasn't really matched his production, despite being a workhorse and his 200Ks per year; he's into his head much more than he should be.  Padres will have a much better 1st half of the season than they did last year and once we get Darvish back and resolve our DH/LF for pretty much the remainder of the year (and our core position players remain healthy), we should be fine for a playoff spot.  I think there will be plenty of competition among AL Central and AL East teams for Cease, giving Preller a decent prospect or two in return - I'd much have that happen than a draft pick.  Thus, while I'd  like to have that strong 4 man rotation going forward, it all boils down to money and what the Padres can afford in the future.  King is the man, not Cease, and we need to lock him up with a 4-5 year deal and tear up that current contract.

Quote from fenn68 on April 14, 2025, 12:18 pm

I do expect Suarez to opt out after the season (his money drops from $10MM to $8MM) and will be shooting for a longer term deal likely > $10MM AAV. Given the variability of RP ... don't see the Padres re-signing him. For that same reason, doubt any team would give much for him at the deadline even if the Padres would put him on the market, so probably more value in 2025 sticking around.

Guessing Adam gets the closer role in 2026 with Estrada breathing down his neck and maybe Reynolds getting the 7th inning role. Morejon becomes the end of game LHRP. I think a lot of Adam ... so expecting he will pursue that big long term contact after 2026 and the Padres will pass. Estrada / Reynolds will be back but by 2027 maybe they get pushed by Pena, Rodriguez, or Neighbors. Since not a lot (except Cruz) coming as LHRP ... Morejon may be the RP they make the effort to re-sign / extend.

Quote from fenn68 on April 14, 2025, 12:32 pm

IF King repeats his 2024 performance ... he should be in line for a long deal with an AAV between $27MM and $30MM ... and given his age (will be just 30) probably somewhere between 5 and 8 years. Aligns with the deals (at a similar age) for Fried and Glasnow.

Preller seem OK with long deals for those "special" players ... and beyond the on-field performance ... King seems to have off-field character that the Padres want to keep around. King seems to like being in SD ... so should be a match if the money is right.

At this point, King should be the top priority of the potential FA.

Quote from MrPadre19 on April 14, 2025, 1:20 pm

Not worried about the Bullpen.....plenty of young options getting close.

I still like the idea of stretching Bryan Hoeing out as a Starter.

Rotation next year:

King/Darvish/Musgrove/Pivetta/Hoeing,Vasquez,Waldron

Plus we may have a couple SP's ready by Opening Day and/or AJ signs one or trades for one next off season.

 

 

Quote from Randy Manese on April 14, 2025, 2:13 pm

King also doesn't have a lot of mileage on his arm for his pitching age and he doesn't have to throw or try to throw overly hard to have success.  I like what he and his wife are doing with their charity in San Diego and I hope he continues to be that kind of representative the Padres are so proud of.