Quote from fenn68 on January 25, 2026, 6:35 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on January 25, 2026, 4:50 pm

My guess is that Merrill and Fermin both up their wRC+ by 20 points while the rest of the 8 regulars hold pretty steady, however, given the injuries we had last season expect more production out of those wRC+ numbers.  Don't think Johnson is going to get anywhere near his 135 mark, but should  still be serviceable unless he completely goes in the tank during ST.  Wildcards are Song and Campy and their past recent history (albeit KBO and AAA) show they have baseline skills to be at least within striking distance of major league wRC+ average, say 85-90 - I think the Padres will take that.  The other two bench spots are TBD and lots of possibilities out there to better ourselves here without giving up too much.

So agree that if we gain that added flexibility thanks to Darvish, a SP who can at least compete for the #3 spot in the rotation is the goal.  I wouldn't categorize Bassitt as "very good" but he can eat up 170 innings (about 6 per game), have an ERA around 4.00 and get into double digits with wins given our bullpen.  I prefer Zac Gallen, if we have the money for him, and Nick Martinez is the fall back if we can't land either Bassitt or Gallen.  Of course there are the oldies - Scherzer and Verlander!

Still get a feeling we are going to re-sign Arraez on a team friendly deal for 2026 and that Arraez will bounce back to have a typical Arraez year.  Last year, his BABIP was way down and so was his hard hit rate.  Had off-season surgery last year and I think that still bothered him throughout the 2025 season along with other injuries he suffered.  We shall see...

 

 

Sort of a toss up on the FA SP ... think at best all fit as a potential #3 / #4 behind Pivetta, King, and Musgrove with "average" SP ERA round 4 (unless get lucky). Bassitt, Gallen, Martinez all should be innings eaters and that helps not over working the pen or needing to tap the minors. Giolito is more a question mark. Just not sure about Verlander or Scherzer at their ages lasting a season and continued effectiveness. Probably a few others to consider.

So, not really committed to any one ... more the contract and do they want to come to the Padres. Also, never know what the Padres think of any of them based on their own bias. Key is that there are "reasonable" options so the Padres have a shot of extending the rotation with some quality.

Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2026, 7:02 am

Beginning to lean towards a reunion with Nick Martinez (now 35). Martinez had a poor year in 2025 after a string of good years (ERA in mid-3s).

However, in comparing the primary FA candidates ... used the last two seasons and the AWAY stats to minimize the Home park bias ... Martinez is clearly the best ERA plus near the top in innings. (note Giolito' ERA was better but half the innings due to injury ... and availability is important to a thin SD rotation).

When in SD he was a real team player willing to swing between SP and RP ... that has value and ... for me ... hard to judge with the other options.

Gallen - Bassitt - Giolito all seem to have a higher national profiles ... maybe resulting in bigger contracts (at least demands). Martinez maybe the under the radar sign with similar results at a lower price point.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 26, 2026, 7:35 am

What about Zack Littell?

Great BB/K ratio.....but was hurt last year by the long ball....36 Bombs allowed.

Still decent ERA and good WHIP.

Still only 30

Wonder what kind of market he has going?

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2026, 8:03 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 26, 2026, 7:35 am

What about Zack Littell?

Great BB/K ratio.....but was hurt last year by the long ball....36 Bombs allowed.

Still decent ERA and good WHIP.

Still only 30

Wonder what kind of market he has going?

 

A good option ... had two good seasons since converting to a SP. Not impressive stuff but a command pitcher with results. Healthy and delivers innings.

Not much buzz on his FA (most project his at the lower cost of these options)... and some are projecting a drop in production (no idea why). Teams may have focus on the bigger names first (same issue as with Martinez) and with multiple arms ... somewhat similar as mid to bottom of the rotation arms ... all are likely getting low balled now with teams just waiting for one to lower the ask for the first signing then as a buyers exit the market the others are under more pressure to lower their asks lest they be the last man standing without a team in ST.

I guess I am thinking the value to the Padres of this set of SP is the improvement in the bottom of the rotation (#4?) by bumping Sears (or Hart) to AAA (and adding some mid-season depth). Not minimal if they deliver innings and an ERA just under 4.00 vs Sears who looks more like a 5.00+ ERA. One run a game will result in a few more wins and does not take too many more wins to create a better playoff odds.

So, signing someone has a big value in my mind but not sure if there is a big difference among the options ... so Preller waits out the options for the best deal ... saves some money to deploy on a bat?

Quote from Commie on January 26, 2026, 2:58 pm

I think we are selling Vasquez short. He needs to be allowed to develop. You'd rather have Sears? No way.

Quote from fenn68 on January 27, 2026, 1:39 am

Quote from Commie on January 26, 2026, 2:58 pm

I think we are selling Vasquez short. He needs to be allowed to develop. You'd rather have Sears? No way.

Think Vasquez is pretty much a lock on a rotation spot ... and agree he is much more productive that most give him credit for being. Consider in 2025 he made 26 starts / 134 innings and those innings put him 88th among all SP (good considering potentially 150 rotation slots across MLB). His ERA was 3.84 putting him 39th among pitchers with 130 innings+. In only 3 starts did he give up 4 or more runs ... kept the team in games. One critique was he did not to go deep into his starts but in reality he delivered 6 or more innings 9 times. Not sure whether it was Niebla or Shildt who made some of the calls on pulling him after 4-5 in most starts ... so that could improve and get him up to 150-180 innings. His "stuff" may not be elite and he may suffer when compared to Cease, Pivetta, King, Musgrove yet the production value is there.

Just looking at his results from a MLB perspective ... Padres have in Vasquez a "middle of the rotation" SP vying for the #4-5 rotation slot behind Pivetta, King, and Musgrove ... bodes well.

Quote from fenn68 on January 27, 2026, 2:08 am

As it stands J P Sears is battling Hart for the #5 SP slot (but do expect Preller to add someone to bump both out of the running ... note that I think both can be optioned to AAA as the call-ups as needed).

Sears (turning 30) was not that impressive in his Padre time (ERA > 5). However can make a case as a #5 (at least potentially). First is "availability" ... in 2023 and 2024 for OAK he went 172 and 180 innings (albeit with below average results) and that helped the rest of the staff and pen. His BAA and WHIP for a SP was "not that bad". His minor league stats were excellent.

I know not the profile most look for but if he can edge his career ERA down about 0.5 to league average ... given those innings pitched ... he would be a legit ML #5 on most teams ... higher on some.

Hopefully after time with Niebla he can make that slight improvement. Also in the same vein is Kyle Hart if they run him out as a SP vs a RP ... not great but potentially useful at the bottom of the rotation with a little refinement.

While we expect Preller to add a more effective SP and bump Sears and Hart to RP or AAA ... if not ... either could perform "well enough" as a #5 so as not to create a disaster in the rotation.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 27, 2026, 4:33 am

I’m fine with Vasquez as the number 5, but that means we still need to find a number 4.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 27, 2026, 6:44 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 27, 2026, 2:08 am

Hopefully after time with Niebla he can make that slight improvement. Also in the same vein is Kyle Hart if they run him out as a SP vs a RP ... not great but potentially useful at the bottom of the rotation with a little refinement.

I agree with your assessment of Sears. I think Niebla just spent time observing Sears to see what potential Sears has. Im sure that after the trade, they did not want to tinker too much during the season.

I am sure that over the winter that Niebla has been giving Sears things to work and once arriving in Peoria, they will work harder together in person to refine those changes. He has proved that he can give a team innings, and with tweaks from Niebla, maybe he becomes a very nice #5.

I'm sure Preller saw something to have him included in the trade from the A's/