Quote from fenn68 on October 28, 2025, 8:03 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 28, 2025, 6:35 am

I'd be OK with bringing Arraez back at the right price....but he needs to hit 7th-9th.

Not at the top of the order

Somewhat depends on which Arraez exists in 2026.

IF he is the historical hitter at the lead-off slot ... .367 OBP along with long AB would work well to set-up the middle of the line-up.

IF he is the 2025 Arraez not as compelling (but do need an alternative) and at the 2025 level ... not sure would want him even at the bottom of the line-up.

What the Padres need to figure out is why Arraez did not perform to his history in 2025 ... did batting 2nd behind Tatis (who did have a good OBP) cause the pitchers to alter their approach to him (vs leading off) and / or did batting 2nd behind Tatis cause Arraez to alter his hitting approach? No idea but that assessment is critical to the Padres' decision to re-sign him and how to deploy him.

Sort of the companion assessment is the use of Tatis as the lead-off hitter. I understand all the theoretical reasons (speed, power, disruptive presence) and he did have a good season BUT the team still struggled to score runs and lacked power. Would the "team" offense be more productive if Tatis was deployed in the middle of the order (better using the impact of his power) bundled with Merrill and Machado? Of course that forces the Padres to address a new lead-off hitter (and their roster really has none).

Preller ... the analytics department ... returning coaches ... and the new manager need to get a consensus on the game plan in the next month so that Preller can start making any "critical" moves.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 28, 2025, 9:22 am

Arraez in 2025 was very much the Arraez in the 2020-2021 seasons in Minnesota, before he won 3 consecutive batting titles.  His GB rate (43.8%) was the second highest in his career; his batted balls in play to the opposite field was the highest in his career (38.5%) while his pulled % (28.9%) was his second lowest.  His Hard Hit % (16.7%) and Barrel Rate (1.1%) were the lowest of his career by a significant percentage from his batting title years.  Lastly, his wRC+ with men on base or in scoring position, which had averaged about 150 the past 3 years dipped to 96, meaning less than league average.

Having watched virtually all the games played by the Padres this year, Arraez seemed too passive at the plate letting too many hittable 1st pitches get by him for easily called strikes; he needs to be more of an aggressive hitter than a defensive hitter.  If he can turn on the ball more, like we know he can with his HRs down the RF line at PETCO, and hit the ball with more authority in the air (line drives that quickly find the gaps) then that's the Arraez I would want to see back.  Otherwise, it's an empty skill set that which we probably can fill with a player making much less than 8-10M.

 

 

Quote from WindsorUK on October 28, 2025, 9:47 am

As much as I've championed FTJ in the leafoff spot( and that is his ideal spot), I'm beginning to think hitting him 4th might be ideal. Our lack of power is substantial. The team could use his thump more than it needs his speed.

And imagine the pitches Manny would see if 40+HR Nando was behind him?

Of our current hitters, who's best at the top? Bogaerts? Merrill? Laureano?

Quote from WindsorUK on October 28, 2025, 9:51 am

Quote from Randy Manese on October 28, 2025, 9:22 am

Arraez in 2025 was very much the Arraez in the 2020-2021 seasons in Minnesota, before he won 3 consecutive batting titles.  His GB rate (43.8%) was the second highest in his career; his batted balls in play to the opposite field was the highest in his career (38.5%) while his pulled % (28.9%) was his second lowest.  His Hard Hit % (16.7%) and Barrel Rate (1.1%) were the lowest of his career by a significant percentage from his batting title years.  Lastly, his wRC+ with men on base or in scoring position, which had averaged about 150 the past 3 years dipped to 96, meaning less than league average.

Having watched virtually all the games played by the Padres this year, Arraez seemed too passive at the plate letting too many hittable 1st pitches get by him for easily called strikes; he needs to be more of an aggressive hitter than a defensive hitter.  If he can turn on the ball more, like we know he can with his HRs down the RF line at PETCO, and hit the ball with more authority in the air (line drives that quickly find the gaps) then that's the Arraez I would want to see back.  Otherwise, it's an empty skill set that which we probably can fill with a player making much less than 8-10M.

 

 

Totally agree, Randy!

Too many times he watched pitches that could have been put in play, advancing runners.

He was just being too fine with his approach, looking for singles when even groundouts or flyballs could have been productive.

And as much as like Arraez, I just don't think he helps us win.

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 28, 2025, 12:37 pm

If Arraez could take a ball when he gets 2 strikes on him that would be different.

How many balls did he foul off instead of taking ball 3 or even ball 4?

HUNDREDS.

It was like he "wanted" to get to two strikes and then start fouling off pitches that were close...many weren't even that close.

That's not what you want from a guy hitting in front of your power guys.

Just

Get

On

Base

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 29, 2025, 10:47 am

A somewhat different speculation consideration ... non-tenders.

Don't expect a 40 man roster crunch with all the FA but do expect "some" payroll limitations ... so, a non-tender to open more payroll space for potentially a more impactful add than the player(s) non-tendered.

MLBTradeRumors triggered this suggesting Sears and Adam as potential non-tenders. "Might" have some logic.

1. Sears (est. $3.5MM in arbitration) ... did not perform well in 2025 and a big question as to him making the 26 man. $3.5MM is a lot for a AAA insurance policy who will be 30 and had a 5 ERA.
2. Adam (est. $6.8MM in arbitration) ... the wild card here is his health. He is a FA after 2026 and at this point unknown if he will be back in April or mid-season (and how the injury may impact his productivity).

Consider if they non-tender both they open up another $10MM and that could get them a strong "9th bat" or a stronger SP ... especially if combined with the guess of $20MM currently available.

Given the RP is a strength (especially if Miller / Morejon remain in the pen) getting the roster upgraded with healthy "regulars" makes sense.

In both cases, it is possible ... but not probable .... the Padres non-tender them then re-sign at a lower price or in Adam's case ... a lower contract that buys out in 2027 FA (giving him time to prove he is healthy and still effective).

So, legit question as to whether they can sign a player for $10MM that has more value from the start of the season (and lead to more wins) than keeping an injured Adam and a low end starter in Sears. Hmmm?

---

---

Side: expect some will want to non-tender Campusano ... he is only projected a $1MM arbitration amount (just a couple hundred over league minimum) plus ... for now ... no #2 catcher. So, keep him and can release him later (or trade him) if they land a better catching option.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 29, 2025, 9:21 pm

Your post made me look at the All-star season of Adam and it proved quite surprising.  He was fabulous until June and then cratered until August, where he finally got results that were just a little bit above league average.  Further, his stats across the board were some of the worst stats he has posted since he started pitching in relief regularly in 2022.  So, given his age (34 for all the 2026 season), his injury situation and what he would command in arbitration, it would seem a wise decision to not tender him and then try to get him to sign a 2 year contract.  At his age, he doesn't have too many years left so he might want to wind it up in San Diego and the 2-year contract can go year to year after 2027.

If Sears is non-tendered, likely he will be scooped up by another team despite not having great success in San Diego. 3.5M is not a lot to gamble on a back of the rotation starter and not likely to be the amount that differentiates us getting who we want to get.  All we need to do is trade Matsui or Peralta and we can make up that money (likely have to include a mid-level prospect for someone to take on either of their contracts, however).  I think Sears ultimately will prove he is slightly better than Hart, so we are saving 4.5M by not picking up the option on Hart.

Quote from fenn68 on October 30, 2025, 1:56 am

A lot pivots off what Siedler - Greupner - Preller have set as a budget for payroll going into the season and the priorities for upgrading the roster. With that as a framework ... Preller usually has done his pre-work on players he will target and his view of the probable cost vs his ceiling price. That may set up the non-tender decisions on Adam and Sears ... considering priorities / alternatives.

Peralta and Matsui are difficult situations to address. Effectiveness vs cost vs alternatives vs trade potential. Noting they are LHRP (can debate the need of having multiple LHRP).

Peralta (assuming he does not opt out) carries two years at $4.5 and $4.5MM. Of "qualified" LHRP in 2025 he ranked 28 out of 48 (ERA) but looking at the second half he ranked 18 out of 50 ... so on one hand that should be good enough for making him (and his contract) traceable since $4.5MM. In this era that is not that much for a "good" RP but flip that if the Padres need a LHRP behind Morejon ... can't really expect any internal option to step up and deliver a 3.20 ERA (season) / 2.57 ERA (2nd half). He looks like a hold for now.

Matsui carries maybe 3 years (assuming he exercises his options) at $5.8-6.5-7.0MM. Of "qualified" LHRP in 2025 he ranked 40 our of 48 (3.89 ERA) but looking at the second half he ranked 19 our of 50 (2.60 ERA)... so better but not likely good enough on that contract to generate any trade interest unless the Padres eat some of the contract (and that defeats some of the purpose of trading him). Not sure that the Padres have good enough prospects (that they are willing to trade) that would get any team to take Matsui's contract. I guess we can look at Matsui's second half (generally used in non-critical situations) and have a bit of hope that he can be effective in early "hold" situations.

So, in the second half they both were "average" LHRP who pitched enough to be qualified ... in absence of clearly equal LHRP who are cheaper likely they start the season with the Padres.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 30, 2025, 4:20 pm

It would take a "money" team that needs a lot of help in the bullpen (especially LH) to make a trade of Peralta or Matsui happen.  Just so happens the Yankees fit that model with basically 3 LHP in the pen - Brent Headrick, Tim Hill and Jayvien Sandridge on their current 40 man roster; Ryan Yarbrough is a swingman that was used more as a SP down the stretch.  Headrick's biggest negative is that he gives up the home run ball at a very untenable rate of 2.1/9 IP, making ex-Padre Emilio Pagan look like a ground ball pitcher!  Hill only struck out 37 batters in 67 innings and at 36 years old his margin for error is razor thin - his 4.30 FIP being closer to his effectiveness than his 3.09 ERA in 2025.   Sandridge finally had a BB/9 IP of less than 7 last year in the minors which earned him a shot with the Yankees.  Yankees seem to need at least one experienced at least league average LH RP in the pen and so a trade might be possible.

Peralta (former Yankee) and Matsui look a lot more dependable than any of the three current lefties and might get us a prospect in the mid-teens if we include a prospect in our mid-20's range.  For fun's sake, let's say we trade Matsui and INF Rosman Verdugo to the Yankees for OF Brendon Jones.  Let's do it Yankees!