Quote from fenn68 on October 26, 2025, 3:23 pm

Phase 1 of 2026 is making the playoffs (have the trade deadline to boost the roster if needed for playoff strength). How to address the 162?

Padres in 2025 won 90 games and made the playoffs ... could the current roster (even with the FA leaving) be as good (or better)?

On the offense consider:

Fermin for a full season is > Diaz / Maldonado at C

Laureano is > Heyward, Joe, Gonzalez, et al in LF

Lose Arraez but he was only "average" in 2025 ... so finding a low cost "average" 1B/DH is probable

So, for the season the offense should be better ... and expect more for the returnees.

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Bullpen could be better with Miller > Suarez and higher upside arms in Morgan / Rodriguez moving in.

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SP actually may not be as much of a problem (still need to add but not necessarily multiple top tier arms) ... consider 2025 SP was pretty weak except for Pivetta:

32 starts ... Cease ... 4.55 ERA ... gone

31 starts ... Pivetta ... 2.87 ERA ... returning

26 starts ... Vasquez ... 3.70 ERA ... returning

15 starts ... Darvish ... 5.38 ERA ... returning?

15 starts ... King ... 3.44 ERA ... gone

14 starts ... Kolek ... 4.18 ERA ... gone

7 starts ... Bergert ... 3.13 ERA ... gone

6 starts ... Cortes ... 5.47 ERA ... gone

6 starts ... Hart ... 6.66 ERA ... gone?

5 starts ... Sears ... 5.47 ERA ... returning

1 starts ... Waldron ... 7.71 ERA ... returning

0 starts ... Musgrove ... n/a ... returning

So, if you believe the return of Musgrove can pitch near the innings of Cease and likely with a better ERA ... have 3/5 of the rotation (Musgrove-Pivetta-Vasquez) as good (or better than 2025). No one else even pitched 1/2 a season and the good of King was easily offset by the bad of his replacements.

Using that thinking ... offense is better ... RP is better ... have 3 starters as good or better ... and the bar to better for those remain two SP is very low.

So, in my mind Preller still needs to add SP but maybe he can get healthy innings eaters who are just "average" (4-4.5 ERA types) at a reasonable price (given the budget) ... and still make the playoffs. (of course never would reject an upper rotation arm ... e.g. King).

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 27, 2025, 4:05 am

Sounds good in theory…..but not sold on Vasquez repeating(hoping but not sold) and/or Musgrove being effective for a full season.

Who do we get?

Biggest question of the off season IMO

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 27, 2025, 8:01 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 27, 2025, 4:05 am

Sounds good in theory…..but not sold on Vasquez repeating(hoping but not sold) and/or Musgrove being effective for a full season.

Who do we get?

Biggest question of the off season IMO

 

I guess every season is based on hope ... frankly not sure Pivetta can repeat his best season ever. However, based on history, the Padres appears to have a solid starting point to build for another playoff run.

I sort of am forcing myself to think of adds with a pool of $20MM+/- to work with (would be happy if more, and do think possible for the "right" player(s)). Also limiting my thinking for "short term" deals that don't bump into the major CASH payroll increases coming for Machado, Tatis, Merrill ... and likely  Miller ... plus noteworthy increases for Fermin and the better current Arb players ... all that combined with the unknowns from the new CBA (and 2027 lockout). So, really limiting myself on options.

Still, have King as the pivot point ... what will be his cost / duration vs the Padres' assessment of his injury risk. King is upper rotation and IF Padres end up with him ... and use most of the $20MM the SP is pretty good and really need to only add one or two "low end" gambles who can at least eat innings and deliver maybe a 4.50 ERA.

If no King, probably drop down to the next tier, not as good but lower cost and target at least two useful SP in the $10MM+/- range. That may lead them to 1 year deals with "older" pitchers who at least appear healthy. Gallen type?

Not preferred, but if no King ... can't land the alternative plan ... go with the conversion of Miller or Morejon .. and spend on more RP where they can get good options (not top tier) for a lower cost.

Sort of sequence of moves ... move one sets up the direction for move two and three ... etc. Preller is flexible plus is never going to lock in on one option and is willing to wait to ST, if necessary, to strike his deal. Remember Pivetta was a last moment signing and the Arraez trade was early in season. So, we may be  panicking for most of the winter with little activity.

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 27, 2025, 8:25 am

Padres are apparently still in the interview stage for a manager. Some random thoughts:

1. note that Pujols was not successful for the LAA job and now not successful for the BALT job ... in both cases not by "name" candidates or individuals with extensive ML managerial experience or success. Could that reflect a bit on Pujols in interviews and/or his demands if hired?
2. some guesses are that Flaherty who was Preller's choice before hiring Shildt is again in the lead in Preller's mind. However, Shildt was hired apparently because Preller was overruled (Gruepner / Siedler?) ... so will he get overruled again? Note that Flaherty was not successful in the BALT decision where he apparently interviewed ... not sure anyone else is in on him. Side: reports are that Flaherty is a major analytical type (batter / pithes match-up, etc). Not sure how that fits with this roster (personalities).
3. if "ownership" does not want Flaherty and prefers a proven ML winner manager  ... who, since not seeing any with that profile in the mix (Servais?)
4. if Preller gets overruled again ... and since he is in extension discussions ... will that push either side to break from the extension discussion and lead to a parting after 2026?
5. Carlos Hernandez ... color broadcaster on the Spanish Padre games and former Padre catcher (1998 team) and LAD ... has asked to be interviewed for the managerial job. Apparently Preller will interview him. Not a likely candidate but at least interesting.

New manager ... whoever ... likely will bring a different view on line-up construction, playing time (rests), hitting approach, and pitcher usage (SP/RP). Like his choices or not ... Shildt was successful. Will new choices help or hurt team performance?

Quote from Randy Manese on October 27, 2025, 8:50 am

By Veterans Day and certainly no later than Thanksgiving Day, the profile of the 2026 Padres' team roster will largely have been decided.  No later than 5 days after the World Series ends, which could be as early as 4 Nov or as late as 7 Nov, players and teams must exercise their options.  Free agents can be extended Qualifying Offers (QO) within this same 5 days and a players receiving a QO must decide within 7 days to accept or reject that offer.

By 18 November, teams must add/subtract from their 40 man roster to protect minor league players who are Rule 5 eligible.  This somewhat goes hand in hand with the 21 November Non-tender deadline with current players on the 40 man not receiving a 2026 contract immediately becoming a Free Agent.  Clubs likely have already decided this by 18 November, however, some teams might wait to see what minor leaguers are unprotected before making the final decision particularly if they have an early Rule 5 choice and need to open up a spot on their 40-man.

It will be an exciting and maybe frustrating time for Padres fans since we don't know what direction or the bottom line ownership will take with the budget.  If all that happens is we end up with King for the 2026 season, then I'll consider the off-season a success no matter what else happens.  Padres need him to anchor the top of the rotation and I hope ownership does all it can to reel him in for at least one more year.  Of course, that depends upon King wanting to be here - hopefully we haven't assumed wrongly that he would prefer to stay in San Diego for at least one more year.

P.S.  Eligible minor league players can elect free agency within that same 5 day window after the World Series ends.  So we should know if Padres saw enough in Yonathan Perlaza to try to bring him onto their 40 man before he hits the open market.

Quote from fenn68 on October 27, 2025, 10:56 am

Should be an interesting November and up to the Winter Meetings.

I do think King wants to stay in SD (environment and Niebla ... playoff team) and the Padres likely want him back ... BUT it may all come down to the contract vs any other offers.

Apparently a fair amount of concern about King's projection for health ... the risk any team wants to take on ... and how to construct a contract that meets any team's and King's objectives.

A healthy King should command a 4-5 year deal in the $20-25MM AAV range. However, as a SP, only 2024 was basically healthy and his injury in 2025 cost him 1/2 a season and lingered longer than initially thought ... worrisome. So, unlikely any team goes that high (but it only takes one well funded team to bite).

If King is not getting the big offer ... where does he compromise? Shorter deal or lower AAV or a combo of both? If he has confidence in his ability to rebound, stay healthy, and have a top of the rotation quality season ... could accept a deal with an opt out after 2026 and / or incentives for starts in 2026. Then reemerge as a FA while still "young" with a better resume. Even if not to that level ... can he sustain performance that will still yield the lower multi-year offers for 2026?

A good case can be made for the benefit of King and the signing team for an incentive laden 2026 deal with player or club options for 2027-28. Player options lower than 2026 (protection from a mediocre 2026). Or Club options higher than 2026 (satisfying longer term protection for King if good but protecting the team for poor performance while maybe lowering the 2026 money).

From the Padres perspective ... needing to make some adds with limited resources ... may need to work hard to get resolution on King early in the winter (pre Winter Meetings) lest alternatives get taken off the board.

Quote from fenn68 on October 27, 2025, 11:19 am

Again a game of alternatives ... and a need for a 9th hitter / Arraez needs a team.

At what price would the Padres re-sign Arraez? Consensus is that he will not make anywhere near this 2025 contact ... even a ton of speculation that few (if any) teams will be interested in a poor defensive, no power 1B/DH no matter is BA (and that was not impressive in 2025).

Padres seemed to actually like Arraez ... his defense (at least by my eyes) was not as bad as analytics suggest. Arraez seemed to like his time in SD.

$5-8MM?

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A lot of variables and unknowns on how the new manager might deploy Arraez but note that career

batting #1(1881 PA): 323/364/418 (782)

batting #2(729 PA): 295/334/395 (729) ... Shildt's preferred slot

IF strategically the team sees Arraez batting #1 returns that .364 OBP with long AB (and no power) may set up Tatis, Merrill, and Machado ... the power bats ... to actually drive in more runs. If Arraez is low cost ... might fit.

Just another possibility ... for the right money and potential lack of better alternatives.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 27, 2025, 4:08 pm

Given the uncertainty that Sheets can repeat or exceed his productivity in the 2025 season, I've also been thinking of which of the Free Agents could possibly return to the Padres at what a lot of people consider below market value.  I agree that the most likely of the bats to return is Arraez.  Don't think his market will be huge and he loves being in San Diego.  Don't think he'll go all the way down to 5M but 8M with some incentives might be enough to lure him back for one year in hopes that he will perform sufficiently well to justify a salary in the mid-teens (13-15M) as a FA in 2027.

Diaz may also want to return but it would have to be close to league minimum and be on another incentive laden contract.  He finished strong at the plate but for most of the year was a black hole in the line-up.  If Campy is traded, Diaz may find his way back.  Iglesias is in the same category as Diaz; has to be a team friendly contract.  Still great defensively, but offense took a big step backward in 2025.  Maybe 2M plus incentives?

Although unlikely, Ryan O'Hearn might want to give it one more year in San Diego.  If there is a budget that allows him 10M base salary plus incentives, I could see him returning if he doesn't get that multi-year contract at the numbers he's looking for.   Again,  it will depend upon what Padres will have to spend to solidify their 2026 rotation - might not leave much left to afford a seemingly dependable but not really an impact bat like O'Hearn.  At 10M, O'Hearn is likely a luxury the Padres can't afford.  He would, however, be valuable insurance for a regression to career numbers from Sheets.

Do think we are going to get some huge numbers from Tatis and Merrill in 2026.  I think both push and may exceed 30 HRs and 30 SBs, despite the fact that Merrill hasn't run that much in his first 2 years (although 2025 was curbed because of injuries).   Given the "older" players (I didn't feel on the downhill side of life when I was in my early-mid 30's) get sufficient rest and avoid long-term injuries, our offense should be much better in 2026 irrespective of the new manager and/or possibly a new hitting coach.

Quote from fenn68 on October 27, 2025, 4:54 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on October 27, 2025, 4:08 pm

Given the uncertainty that Sheets can repeat or exceed his productivity in the 2025 season, I've also been thinking of which of the Free Agents could possibly return to the Padres at what a lot of people consider below market value.  I agree that the most likely of the bats to return is Arraez.  Don't think his market will be huge and he loves being in San Diego.  Don't think he'll go all the way down to 5M but 8M with some incentives might be enough to lure him back for one year in hopes that he will perform sufficiently well to justify a salary in the mid-teens (13-15M) as a FA in 2027.

Diaz may also want to return but it would have to be close to league minimum and be on another incentive laden contract.  He finished strong at the plate but for most of the year was a black hole in the line-up.  If Campy is traded, Diaz may find his way back.  Iglesias is in the same category as Diaz; has to be a team friendly contract.  Still great defensively, but offense took a big step backward in 2025.  Maybe 2M plus incentives?

Although unlikely, Ryan O'Hearn might want to give it one more year in San Diego.  If there is a budget that allows him 10M base salary plus incentives, I could see him returning if he doesn't get that multi-year contract at the numbers he's looking for.   Again,  it will depend upon what Padres will have to spend to solidify their 2026 rotation - might not leave much left to afford a seemingly dependable but not really an impact bat like O'Hearn.  At 10M, O'Hearn is likely a luxury the Padres can't afford.  He would, however, be valuable insurance for a regression to career numbers from Sheets.

Do think we are going to get some huge numbers from Tatis and Merrill in 2026.  I think both push and may exceed 30 HRs and 30 SBs, despite the fact that Merrill hasn't run that much in his first 2 years (although 2025 was curbed because of injuries).   Given the "older" players (I didn't feel on the downhill side of life when I was in my early-mid 30's) get sufficient rest and avoid long-term injuries, our offense should be much better in 2026 irrespective of the new manager and/or possibly a new hitting coach.

Think we are pretty much on the same page with those options.

An Iglesias or Diaz sign may be late once they have exhausted their hunt for a better deal ... and therefore maybe on the cheap.

Probably would want Iglesias to return ... apparently great clubhouse but from a field standpoint he should not play all the much with Machado-Bogaerts-Cronenworth when healthy are every day players. So, it is Iglesias' defense at all three positions (still very good) that makes me less worried about his current offense production. A good fill player and still better than the current bench alternatives of McCoy (zero hit) and Wagner (jury out but a limited 2B/3B). Both would get league minimum so a $1-2MM more might get you Iglesias ... and a much better option for the bench.

Diaz is more a "maybe" ... he is getting $2MM? buyout of a mutual option (at $7MM) so likely not panicking on a lowball offer and waiting for a better deal for him. With Fermin clearly the #1 catcher and likely to catch 120 games +/- ... maybe looking for a situation with a chance to catch more although at his age maybe just the opposite. Padres ... how does Campusano figure in (out of minor league options) ... and for a bench catcher a lot of low end (low cost?) bodies out there as FA. Would expect one (or two) of those low end, aging options being signed to minor league deals and invites to ST and let that sort out then. Maybe if no takers ... Diaz may be in that mix.