Quote from BoosterSD on March 5, 2024, 6:14 pm

I dont have an issue with Merrill in CF, kind of like the idea. However, I would still prefer if he had another 3 months in the MiL before getting thrown to the big boys.

 

Quote from WindsorUK on March 6, 2024, 7:20 am

https://www.mlb.com/padres/news/robert-suarez-ready-to-be-padres-closer

So if Suarez( who I don't mind) is closing, doing a good job, and we're out of it by deadline, does he get moved?

I just think he's taking too much money out of a limited payroll. And I'm sure theres more than one guy who can do the job.

Quote from WindsorUK on March 6, 2024, 7:30 am

Quote from BoosterSD on March 5, 2024, 6:14 pm

I dont have an issue with Merrill in CF, kind of like the idea. However, I would still prefer if he had another 3 months in the MiL before getting thrown to the big boys.

 

If we move Merrill to CF, then we have to move Marsee to LF, correct?

I have always hated this team moving guys off their positions. Sure it works on occasion( Wiggins, Bip, Klesko, Tatis,.....) but especially with these young guys, not sure it helps.

If Marsee is a legit CF, wouldn't it be prudent to use Merrill in LF, where he certainly projects better( to the untrained eye)? And not sure about you guys, but I don't like left handers in LF- their glove isn't on gap side. Just a weird observation.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on March 6, 2024, 7:31 am

Quote from WindsorUK on March 6, 2024, 7:20 am

https://www.mlb.com/padres/news/robert-suarez-ready-to-be-padres-closer

So if Suarez( who I don't mind) is closing, doing a good job, and we're out of it by deadline, does he get moved?

I just think he's taking too much money out of a limited payroll. And I'm sure theres more than one guy who can do the job.

Closing is hard and not everyone can do it at the ML level. And if he is doing really well, at $9M± per season, that is a bargain that may be harder to replace than you think. About 60% of the salary of most of the high level closers out there. See Hader and Diaz.

On the other hand, a top level closer at $9M could really fetch a nice haul of MiLs that could help in other spots, such as a power hitting COF or 1B. Or you could saddle Crone with him, and clear even more salary. Which could go to extending Kim. If they go this route, better make sure you truly have someone that can step into his place.

Quote from Randy Manese on March 6, 2024, 8:29 am

The Padres are going to have to put at least 2 OF's on their 40 man before heading out to Korea.  While we've seen Locastro, Mercado and Mitchell flash on occasions during spring training, only Mitchell is a LHH and seems to have cooled lately.  Don't think they'd fill both these OF spots with RH hitters, so I wouldn't be surprised if Merrill is the second add to the OF mix.  LH hitting Eddie Rosario (before he signed with Washington) seemed the only logical fit; other possibilities Pham and Duvall are RH hitters.

I think we fans would prefer to see Merrill dominate in AA or even AAA before bringing him up after a month or so but the Padres staff see him every day and know a lot more about his capabilities physically and mentally to play in the majors.  He plays with a lot of passion, confidence and enthusiasm and I think he'll always have that even if he doesn't make the Korea 40-man.  However, it looks to me, at this point that he will.  I see him playing both CF and LF; how others do in CF and LF, both at the major league level and the minors, will likely determine where Merrill eventually spends the majority of his time.

Quote from fenn68 on March 6, 2024, 8:36 am

$9MM for a quality late inning RP is still good value … for a quality closer it is a bargain … so who is Suarez?

2023 was an injury riddled year for Suarez … with poor results. However, just go back to 2022 and Suarez had a very effective 2.27 ERA / 1.05 WHIP / 1.76 BAA in 48 innings (although not as a closer).

Suarez will be in the closer mix (with Matsui who is also an unknown as ML closer) in 2024 … no real alternatives … so we will learn a lot more this year but baring injury reasonable to expect the justifies the salary.

Maybe a better evaluation next winter (or trade deadline) but the Padres now consider themselves playoff contenders and that requires a closer (or two) to emerge.

Quote from fenn68 on March 6, 2024, 8:54 am

Quote from Randy Manese on March 6, 2024, 8:29 am

The Padres are going to have to put at least 2 OF's on their 40 man before heading out to Korea.  While we've seen Locastro, Mercado and Mitchell flash on occasions during spring training, only Mitchell is a LHH and seems to have cooled lately.  Don't think they'd fill both these OF spots with RH hitters, so I wouldn't be surprised if Merrill is the second add to the OF mix.  LH hitting Eddie Rosario seems the only logical fit at this point of spring training, but don't think the Padres are going in that direction; other possibilities Pham and Duvall are RH hitters.

I think we fans would prefer to see Merrill dominate in AA or even AAA before bringing him up after a month or so but the Padres staff see him every day and know a lot more about his capabilities physically and mentally to play in the majors.  He plays with a lot of passion, confidence and enthusiasm and I think he'll always have that even if he doesn't make the Korea 40-man.  However, it looks to me, at this point that he will.  I see him playing both CF and LF; how others do in CF and LF, both at the major league level and the minors, will likely determine where Merrill eventually spends the majority of his time.

Pretty much agree. Hard to see the Padres landing two OF as FA/trades … the other internal candidates are not compelling based on their pasts (have to discount ST impressions in early small sample sizes) … so Merrill may actually be the best option for the ML.

The working of him in both LF and CF … apparently with good results … makes it even easier to keep him as a starter no matter how they fill the other opening.

Side: heard an interview with Pauley … in a sense competing with Merrill as a LHH in the line-up … and Pauley went out of his way to praise Merrill on every level from on field, character, work ethic. Very unusual and a good sign for the upside of Merrill.

If we now assume Tatis - Azocar - Merrill - Profar in the OF with Merrill able to cover both LF and CF … might be a bit more “flexible” on the last add … especially if a depth in CF is Merrill, Azocar, and Marsee in the minors (if he does not make the 26). IF the Padres add another … the more defensively limited Pham and Belt (L) might be a decent fit for offense.

In the next three weeks a number of course changes can occur with just one move impacting others.

Quote from fenn68 on March 6, 2024, 9:21 am

Quote from BoosterSD on March 6, 2024, 7:31 am

Quote from WindsorUK on March 6, 2024, 7:20 am

https://www.mlb.com/padres/news/robert-suarez-ready-to-be-padres-closer

So if Suarez( who I don't mind) is closing, doing a good job, and we're out of it by deadline, does he get moved?

I just think he's taking too much money out of a limited payroll. And I'm sure theres more than one guy who can do the job.

Closing is hard and not everyone can do it at the ML level. And if he is doing really well, at $9M± per season, that is a bargain that may be harder to replace than you think. About 60% of the salary of most of the high level closers out there. See Hader and Diaz.

On the other hand, a top level closer at $9M could really fetch a nice haul of MiLs that could help in other spots, such as a power hitting COF or 1B. Or you could saddle Crone with him, and clear even more salary. Which could go to extending Kim. If they go this route, better make sure you truly have someone that can step into his place.

This is sort of a side bar scenario on the payroll in 2025 and the potential of signing Kim to an extension.

First we don’t know what Kim’s camp will demand (and if they will negotiate before they hit FA) … we would like to think Kim loves SD so much that he will be “fair” in negotiation but never know. To that end, would expect him at a minimum to land $20MM (maybe 7 years at his age). I do also assume the Padres will push to extend him given his talent as a SS and his immense fan appeal.

So, did some playing with a projected 2025 payroll … keeping the current roster adjusted for the few arbitration increases and the departing FA (plus a minor increase in the CBT threshold) … and low and behold … the Padres would have (after a keeping a $5MM cushion) a little over $20MM to deploy on Kim without trying to move another player contract.

Need to rely on league minimum types for the rest of the roster (sort of how 2024 is going) so no change there. Keep in mind that after 2025 Hosmer’s money drops and opens up $13MM more to deploy and the CBT rises $5MM, King is a FA which (after ARB in 2025) may be another $5MM+. In 2026 the “prospects” will still be Pre-Arb … so no hurt there. Bottom line is that if the Padres can navigate 2025 with extending Kim … the clouds clear a bit starting in 2026.

If the Padres are loving their prospects (offense and pitching) and are reading 2025 and beyond as I do payroll-wise … and if Kim is willing … I would not be shocked if we get a Kim extension in Korea this month.

Basically that would disconnect Kim from the strategy of trading Cronenworth or Suarez.for payroll purposes.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on March 15, 2024, 9:37 am

I'm also thinking an extension and it would be epic if it happens in Korea!  My guess is a shorter length contract, maybe 5 years, at $19M per year .  I think the Padres hope Kim will agree to a lower amount so long as it is above Jung-Hoo Lee's CBT in San Francisco ($18,833) but Kim could easily push them to 20M per year.  The shorter contract is because Leo De Vries will likely have pushed Kim back to 2b (Bogaerts to 1b) in that 4th or 5th year.

Just to comment on obtaining Cease, I think the guy that will most benefit by it is King.  King in that #4 spot in the rotation is going to be far better than almost any other #4 pitcher in the majors - he will dominate.  In fact, if the Padres are fortunate to sign Sasaki after the 2024 season, I can see them trading Cease for a very good return and then trying to extend King, thus letting Snelling and Lesko (and possibly others) ease into the back end of the rotation.  I don't think Darvish will play beyond 2025 despite a contract that runs until 2028, especially if they sign Sasaki - money is not everything and Darvish wants to go out on his own terms while still on top of his game.