Quote from fenn68 on February 3, 2025, 7:54 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on February 3, 2025, 7:19 am

If they can package Suarez with Cease it might open up some creative possibilities. They could fit someone like Seiya Suzuki in to replace Profar. Something like Cease+Suarez for Suzuki and multiple arms from a group that includes Ben Brown, Cade Horton, Javier Assad and Brandon Birdsell could make sense. Maybe a little bit of cash or a lesser prospect could be added too.

Suzuki is owed $19MM in 2025 and $19MM in 2026 ... not sure the Padres will want that from a financial standpoint. Dropping Cease / Suarez saves only about $23.8MM in 2025 (and net only about down $5MM) and creates a potential $19MM increase in 2026. That for more offense but exposing the weakness in SP with little money to upgrade.

If the Padres want the Cubs to eat some salary ... likely not getting any quality prospects OR the Padres will have to offer some good prospects.

I could see the Cubs playing the game if they can clear Susuki's salary and only pick up $5MM net from Cease / Suarez (that goes away after the season) ... then could push the bidding for Bregman to fill 3B on a bigger money long term deal. So, probably for the Cubs ... moving all of Susuki's salary would be key (he is ticketed only as the DH for now). Cubs are about $34MM under the luxury tax, so could add Bregman and keep Susuki  and stay under ... but not if they deal prospects for Cease / Suarez (or eat much Susuki money).

If no financial "adjustments" in the deal ... think Padres would need another move to further lower payroll to get under the CBT and meet cash requirements.

Basically tough to structure any deal given the objectives on both sides. The pivot point may be the signing (or not signing) of Bregman. IF they don't (or just back-off) they can easily fit in the Cease / Suarez money even if they only deal prospects ... and that should work well for the Padres.

Although I like Susuki ... not for 2 years / $38MM on this team at the expense of Cease / Suarez.

Quote from fenn68 on February 3, 2025, 8:10 am

A Cease / Suarez deal with the Cubs may be on hold (or at least for advancing any talks) on Bregman and in turn the Cubs may be on hold with Bregman apparently squarely on the menu for Detroit (and maybe another team or two).

However, if the Bregman decision just drags on ... and now with Flaherty off the board to Detroit ... some other teams may be motived to up their offers on Cease (probably alone) ... beyond the Cubs we should see at least Balt, Toronto, NYM returning to negotiations.

 

Quote from Jeremy Hill on February 3, 2025, 10:57 am

Quote from fenn68 on February 3, 2025, 7:54 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on February 3, 2025, 7:19 am

If they can package Suarez with Cease it might open up some creative possibilities. They could fit someone like Seiya Suzuki in to replace Profar. Something like Cease+Suarez for Suzuki and multiple arms from a group that includes Ben Brown, Cade Horton, Javier Assad and Brandon Birdsell could make sense. Maybe a little bit of cash or a lesser prospect could be added too.

Suzuki is owed $19MM in 2025 and $19MM in 2026 ... not sure the Padres will want that from a financial standpoint. Dropping Cease / Suarez saves only about $23.8MM in 2025 (and net only about down $5MM) and creates a potential $19MM increase in 2026. That for more offense but exposing the weakness in SP with little money to upgrade.

If the Padres want the Cubs to eat some salary ... likely not getting any quality prospects OR the Padres will have to offer some good prospects.

I could see the Cubs playing the game if they can clear Susuki's salary and only pick up $5MM net from Cease / Suarez (that goes away after the season) ... then could push the bidding for Bregman to fill 3B on a bigger money long term deal. So, probably for the Cubs ... moving all of Susuki's salary would be key (he is ticketed only as the DH for now). Cubs are about $34MM under the luxury tax, so could add Bregman and keep Susuki  and stay under ... but not if they deal prospects for Cease / Suarez (or eat much Susuki money).

If no financial "adjustments" in the deal ... think Padres would need another move to further lower payroll to get under the CBT and meet cash requirements.

Basically tough to structure any deal given the objectives on both sides. The pivot point may be the signing (or not signing) of Bregman. IF they don't (or just back-off) they can easily fit in the Cease / Suarez money even if they only deal prospects ... and that should work well for the Padres.

Although I like Susuki ... not for 2 years / $38MM on this team at the expense of Cease / Suarez.

Suarez has the same incentives this year that he maxed out last year. If he's healthy and effective that's potentially another 3m to account for. Asking the Cubs to chip in a little bit, say 6-8m shouldn't hurt the return that badly. Even with no cash coming back you could still move Peralta to give the team some breathing room under the first threshold. Hosmer's money coming off the books would largely offset Suzuki's money next year.

At this point there's just not much left on the market that is going to make much of an impact. What are you going to do with the extra money that's going to be better than adding Suzuki to the lineup?

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make by bringing up Bregman and the luxury tax in the context of trading for Cease and Suarez. You're right it would be hard for them to add Cease, Suarez and Bregman while staying under the luxury tax. They would almost certainly have to shed a large portion of Suzuki's salary which is exactly what I'm proposing.

Quote from fenn68 on February 3, 2025, 11:46 am

side note: Hosmer's money coming off the books next year is basically spoken for with a built-in cash increase due to Machado ($8MM) and arb increases estimated for Adam, Morejon, and Campusano ... if Cash is the factor. If CBT is the issue the $8MM does not factor in.

On the Cubs and the CBT ... if $35MM under the key assumption is what they would pay Bregman (should be between $25-30MM AAV). So, with Suzuki that keeps them $5-10MM under the CBT. Puts them in the position (assuming they want to stay under the CBT) of either keep Suzuki or move Suzuki's ($19MM) contract and add Cease / Suarez ($24MM).

Suzuki (with 2 years control) had a 3.6 WAR last season (7.2 WAR potential over the 2 years) ... Cease (1 year) was at 4.8 WAR and Suarez (likely 1 year) was at 0.9 ... so in some manner the Cubs could argue the total control value of Suzuki (7.2 WAR) is greater than Cease / Suzuki (5.7 WAR) ... buy into those specific values or not but close enough to argue for no prospects and no cash adjustments.

So where I was heading ... I don't think the Padres are better off with Suzuki in 2025 and without Cease / Suarez and no new prospects or cash flexibility. For me a better trade would yield a couple of high quality ML ready prospects (with value for 6 years) while freeing up some payroll. Yes, not much on the FA market but given the cost of "fringe" types just adding "useful" pieces to fill out the roster will cost.

Also should consider the Padres in 2026 are expecting to deal with FA Cease, Suarez, King, and Arraez ... and need to count on the minuses from Cease / Suarez to (if they choose) extend King and/or Arraez. Suzuki's $19MM might be an roadblock while remaining under the CBT and making other upgrades to let's say SP.

A lot to mix into any trade that makes them hard to execute. We will see where Preller comes out on this.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on February 3, 2025, 1:47 pm

Quote from fenn68 on February 3, 2025, 11:46 am

side note: Hosmer's money coming off the books next year is basically spoken for with a built-in cash increase due to Machado ($8MM) and arb increases estimated for Adam, Morejon, and Campusano ... if Cash is the factor. If CBT is the issue the $8MM does not factor in.

On the Cubs and the CBT ... if $35MM under the key assumption is what they would pay Bregman (should be between $25-30MM AAV). So, with Suzuki that keeps them $5-10MM under the CBT. Puts them in the position (assuming they want to stay under the CBT) of either keep Suzuki or move Suzuki's ($19MM) contract and add Cease / Suarez ($24MM).

Suzuki (with 2 years control) had a 3.6 WAR last season (7.2 WAR potential over the 2 years) ... Cease (1 year) was at 4.8 WAR and Suarez (likely 1 year) was at 0.9 ... so in some manner the Cubs could argue the total control value of Suzuki (7.2 WAR) is greater than Cease / Suzuki (5.7 WAR) ... buy into those specific values or not but close enough to argue for no prospects and no cash adjustments.

So where I was heading ... I don't think the Padres are better off with Suzuki in 2025 and without Cease / Suarez and no new prospects or cash flexibility. For me a better trade would yield a couple of high quality ML ready prospects (with value for 6 years) while freeing up some payroll. Yes, not much on the FA market but given the cost of "fringe" types just adding "useful" pieces to fill out the roster will cost.

Also should consider the Padres in 2026 are expecting to deal with FA Cease, Suarez, King, and Arraez ... and need to count on the minuses from Cease / Suarez to (if they choose) extend King and/or Arraez. Suzuki's $19MM might be an roadblock while remaining under the CBT and making other upgrades to let's say SP.

A lot to mix into any trade that makes them hard to execute. We will see where Preller comes out on this.

CBT is always going to be of greater importance than cash. Bregman and the luxury tax is an entirely different conversation than what a trade for Cease and Suarez might look like. I understand what you're saying. The point I'm trying to make is that in the context we were discussing (a trade for Cease and Suarez) if you want to add Bregman and luxury tax concerns to the mix the only way it works is with the Cubs sending back significant salary. There could be any number of things that would stop them from trading for Cease and Suarez, but we're talking about a scenario where they do.

I never said anything about a deal for Suzuki with no new prospects or increased financial flexibility involved.

Quote from fenn68 on February 3, 2025, 4:12 pm

With the current roster I think the Padres are a legit playoff contender with the top 6 in the line-up being elite as a unit and the top 3 SP also being elite with the pen. The current coverage of the other roles is "marginal" but that could be fine (at least until the trade deadline). Other contenders also have their weaknesses.

Just then consider the apparent commitment to be under the CBT ($4MM over) ... maybe the Padres go for only one trade and for me dealing from a strength (RP) makes the most sense and that puts the spotlight on Suarez (maybe Peralta too).

So, first dealing them takes care of the primary CBT issue. Then consider the return sort of a "bonus", especially if it upgrades another needed even at an "average player" at low cost profile.

Any guesses on what a Suarez by himself would yield in a return? Peralta probably nothing of importance.

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 3, 2025, 7:12 pm

Outfield help that's still available...his salary last year was 1.5 million

Randal Grichuk Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com

Quote from fenn68 on February 4, 2025, 5:01 am

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 3, 2025, 7:12 pm

Outfield help that's still available...his salary last year was 1.5 million

Randal Grichuk Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com

He seems like a good fit as a RHH OF who can play all three OF slots (he hits LHP really well) ... and coming off a good season (Padres just need good not "star" power at this point). With needs at LF and DH fits.

Not much in the rumor mill about him and not sure how many teams are really looking for an OF ... at least as a starter. He did turn down a player option with AZ ... so he may be waiting for some team to make an offer that gives him a good chance to start plus given his career and 2024 ... might still be holding out for a bump up in pay. Has to think (maybe wrongly) that he can land a deal nearer this previous $10MM AAV deal (a 5 year deal) given his 2024 ... maybe a $5-10MM on 1 year? Probably confident someone will sign him so not panicking yet.

He is one that could turn into a ST signing at a low cost (low base with incentives) if no teams steps up near his demands.

 

 

Quote from WindsorUK on February 4, 2025, 11:50 am

Any opinions on Alex Verdugo? Young'ish, solid defender, not a lot of K's, not much pop,......is he holding out for a long term deal? Or is he just not that interesting for anyone to throw money at?