Quote from fenn68 on January 24, 2025, 2:54 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 24, 2025, 12:41 pm

"These are the no risk gambles that Preller needs to take to fill out the roster."

 

We need these moves at LF,1B,SP,Bench and still Catcher.

Basically everywhere but the BP.

 

yes but only can do that if the players is there and available at that league minimum price ... still probably too early to get many (or any) FA down that far ...

most veteran players are confident they can land a league minimum contract (or a minor league make good contract) in ST but are internally hopeful they just might do better ... so no hurry on their part.

Marinaccio was a waiver claim that turned into a buy from CWS ... player had no say in it.

Every day I am getting more locked in that the Padres will not spend on a FA (even a low amount) until they unload some salary (and hopefully get some useful return filling the needed upgrades). Not going over the CBT and currently over by about $2MM.

So are we looking to first trade to lower payroll yielding league minimum upgrades in any slot then IF the unloading goes beyond the bogey for payroll start adding some low cost FA fill the remaining needs?

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2025, 11:27 am

In Acee's recent article, a bit more optimistic on Padre payroll ... at least not as much a drop for the current $208MM as I was guessing ... BUT still not more.

Suggested was the Padres  landing about #10 in cash payroll when all is said and done ... currently the LAA hold #10 at $191MM. SF and AZ hold #11/12 in the low $180MM range. All three MAY add to up their payroll so sort of a moving target to land #10.

So, not trying to guess all the moving parts ... maybe a working assumption is in that $190-195MM range for the end state Padre payroll ... a NET reduction of $15MM+/-?

So at least one trade to achieve that from: a) Suarez ($10MM) with Peralta ($4.5MM); b) Arraez ($14MM); c) Cease ($13.9MM); or maybe d) Cronenworth ($11MM) with Peralta ($4.5MM).

That becomes the "breakeven" point ... and the next step depends on who they get in return for whichever trade is made (for players at league minimum) and the new "need" created by the departure.

Cease likely is the "easiest to trade" and get the best return but in my estimation his departure creates that biggest new hold that cannot be backfilled in SP.

Suarez / Peralta should have markets given the need for RP but doubt either will get a return that impacts 2025 for the Padres. However, RP is the one spot the Padres have a good chance for decent replacement internally.

Arraez ... limited market ... limited return (think how little the Padres paid for 2 years of him). At one level not going to replace his bat but given the strength of the core offense ... can the use part of the reduced payroll for some serviceable cover at 1B/DH.

Cronenworth is sort of the same as Arraez just harder to trade given the length of his contract.

Preller really has his work cut out if he has to make budget and deliver a contender.

Quote from fenn68 on January 27, 2025, 12:46 pm

MINOR LEAGUE DEAL:

Padres signed veteran MiL Forrest Wall (29) ... LHH LF/CF/RF/2B ... had a couple cups of coffee in the ML ... not much of a hitter (decent OBP in minors) but his calling card is elite base stealing skills.

Sort of put him in the category of Lockridge (RHH) and Wade (LHH) and potentially serviceable bench pieces who can PR and play multiple positions if needed.

Probably vying for a mid-season call-up role as injuries take their toll.

Quote from WindsorUK on January 27, 2025, 4:25 pm

Any chance any of these former Friars find their way back to the Gas Lamp Quarter: Anthony Rizzo, Ty France, Yasmani Grandal, Travis Jankowski, Manuel Margot, Elias Diaz?

One of these guys must be gettable for vet minimum? And any would be a reasonable 1 year filler in LF, C, or 1B.

Be nice if AJ could pull off another Profar type deal( 1 year, $1 million) without having to move Arraez, Jake, or Cease( quite happy to move Suarez and Peralta)

Quote from fenn68 on January 28, 2025, 2:44 am

Quote from WindsorUK on January 27, 2025, 4:25 pm

Any chance any of these former Friars find their way back to the Gas Lamp Quarter: Anthony Rizzo, Ty France, Yasmani Grandal, Travis Jankowski, Manuel Margot, Elias Diaz?

One of these guys must be gettable for vet minimum? And any would be a reasonable 1 year filler in LF, C, or 1B.

Be nice if AJ could pull off another Profar type deal( 1 year, $1 million) without having to move Arraez, Jake, or Cease( quite happy to move Suarez and Peralta)

Long shot. It would probably take them first signing on a minor league (invite to ST) type contract and the Padres seeing any of them more favorably than any other FA. For them or any late signing FA Preller may shoot for a very low base (like the $1MM if they make the roster) and then incentives based on roster / playing time. Most likely Preller wait until ST starts to work who has yet signed ... plus by then he can evaluate a bit what the has already.

We are talking "fringe" players at this point it appears the careers as starters is past so not going to pay much if viable league minimum bodies are around.

Maldenado - Ornelas - Rosario - Gonzales - Brosseau - Perlaza - Wall -- Sullivan - Brooks - Lockridge - Wade ... in some combination ... may be fine once evaluated in ST to cover LF and DH plus the bench and in support of a very strong core 7 (at least on paper).

What might come first is a player (or two) via trade of someone with the first priority of reducing payroll. Of course that may create a new spot for FA signing. Sort of a moving target that has to be hit with a league minimum player.

Quote from fenn68 on January 28, 2025, 3:01 am

I see the national types are now including King as a trade chip in what appears to be active discussions.

Given his quality and relative low contract (even if he gets his ARB at $8.8MM) his trade value may be the highest of the Padres being considered. Of course given the Padres payroll need and SP need have considered him unlikely to be dealt.

However, recent reports suggest the payroll may not have to be reduced that much and dealing King might meet that need. (guess that means keep Cease). So if moves to trade Cease OR King ... who yields the best return?

They are not Burnes from last winter who yielded two ML ready Top 100 prospects in a deal ... but there is a demand and both are bargain quality ... so not unreasonable to think either could yield two ML ready prospects (maybe both not Top 100) and Preller goes for the best return. Might also open some payroll for a make good FA above the league minimum cost.

Having said that ... would think Preller would not want to deal either baring a spectacular return since the damage to SP would (in my view) result in making the playoffs very long odds. Dealing Suarez / Peralta may be more strategic even if the return is not impressive.

Quote from ultratvfan on January 28, 2025, 5:47 pm

Padres re-sign C Elias Diaz for 1-year, $3.5MM deal with a mutual option for 2026, though it’s still pending a physical.

Quote from ultratvfan on January 28, 2025, 6:45 pm

During his introductory news conference, he said the No. 1 thing that stood out about his new team was "the stability of the front office."
...
Some saw that as an indirect dig at the Padres and their situation. Former Padres outfielder Jurickson Profar said things more explicitly after leaving the team for a three-year, $42 million deal with the Atlanta Braves, calling out the team's ownership "issue" as a reason why a return to San Diego would have been difficult.

For full article: https://sports.yahoo.com/padres-ownership-fight-seidler-brothers-call-peters-widow-sheel-reckless-for-suing-while-team-pursued-roki-sasaki-003812146.html

This dispute over ownership is causing a huge inpact on acquiring and re-signing players in the off season.  No wnder we lost Profar and a chance a Roki.

Quote from fenn68 on January 28, 2025, 8:06 pm

Quote from ultratvfan on January 28, 2025, 5:47 pm

Padres re-sign C Elias Diaz for 1-year, $3.5MM deal with a mutual option for 2026, though it’s still pending a physical.

Assumng he passes the physical he likely is locked into a 26 man roster slot and Maldonado is a AAA insurance policy (and Campusano does get injured).

How about a long shot idea ... include Campusano as a sweetener in a trade (teams need low cost catchers) and go with Diaz and Maldonado for 2025 ... gamble on finding a new option for 2026 plus the potetial emergence of Salas. Depending you view of Campusano ... big gamble but maybe a big win in 2025.