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2024-25 Offseason Talk
#391 · January 23, 2025, 6:23 am
Historically Preller does not panic ... has set values on players that he holds on to ... and with other GM likely playing hardball with lesser returns that Preller wants .... and Preller is comfortable to wait until the last minute ... we may not see any trades until mid or late ST even after the season starts.
If Preller needs to get payroll down ... that does not even start to be a real issue until they start paying players and that does not start until the season starts. So, he has two months to work the other GM. From he other side, games that count also don't start for two months, so no need to "improve" the roster now.
Preller is counting on other GM will be more motivated to up their offers as the season approaches once they know how their teams are shaping up (as well as their primary competitors). Even if they don't up the return ... no worse off that what the deals offer now. At the same time more and more FA will panic without a job and really drop their demands ... and if Preller does not view a major separation in talent among his FA targets he can pull the string on the cheapest.
I suspect Preller sees the core of this team as a legit contender that needs on minor tinkering (now) so might also have a strategy that uses the trade deadline for upgrades targeted to needs at that time while walking the line of payroll limits that only have to be achieved over the course of the season.
Can see we fans enduring two months of frustration with little or no activity but then ?????
#392 · January 23, 2025, 6:46 am
One player to watch in 2025 should be Cronenworth as he returns to 2B full time.
In 2021-22 as a full time 2B he was a 3.7 WAR player with plus offense and defense. That vastly exceeds his $11-12MM salary in terms of value.
The shift in 2023 to 1B created a major drop in offense but 2024 (splitting time between 1B and 2B) his offense started to rebound and he did finish with a 2.1 WAR (still good for $11MM).
IF (as it currently looks) Cronenworth is re-established as the full time 2B ... and being older does not diminish his defense ... he has a chance to end up as a top 5 2B in MLB and well worth his contact.
#393 · January 23, 2025, 7:26 am
Apparently AJ in talks with Minn for Catcher Vazquez.
Didn't hit any better than Campy last season and is owed $10 mil?
Word is they are interested in Cease.
Cease to Mn for Vazquez/Morris/Keaschall + $5 mil?
Rather give them back Arraez
This would save us $9 mil...
#394 · January 23, 2025, 10:00 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on January 23, 2025, 7:26 amApparently AJ in talks with Minn for Catcher Vazquez.
Didn't hit any better than Campy last season and is owed $10 mil?
Word is they are interested in Cease.
Cease to Mn for Vazquez/Morris/Keaschall + $5 mil?
Rather give them back Arraez
This would save us $9 mil...
Guessing MINN would say no to that deal ...
giving up two high quality prospects for one year of Cease would be hard to swallow. Not sure where Keaschall and Morris will land on the new 2025 Prospect (Keaschall was #63 in 2024 and had a good season) and the unranked Morris had a very strong season.
On the Padres' side, can the Padres compete without Cease (Leaving only Darvish and King as SP)? Doubt (in 2025) Vasquez has more value than Cease with the prospects not ready / proven.
Since both teams seem to lower (or at least not increase) payroll ... fencing over money has to be in play. My guess is that MINN would have to get cash equal to the difference between Vasquez - Cease (about $4MM) and everyone payroll-wise stay the same.
On this Padres roster ... trading Cease is a major problem if the Padres want to contend.
#395 · January 23, 2025, 10:13 am
Since have not seen any local reports outlining the Padres' international signings went to Spotrac to see what they have. They list the Padres with only 6 signings but 3 are on MLBPipeline's Top 50:
#21 J. De La Cruz ... SS ...$ not listed but rumor had been around $2MM ... DR
#35 Coronil ... SS ... $900K ... Venezuela
#39 Alvarez ... LHP ... $1MM ... DR
Then probably very low bonuses:
A. Castro ... P ... Mexico
J. Verdugo ... SS ... Mexico
S. Vargas ... SS ... Columbia
So if Padres did pay $2MM for De La Cruz ... they would still have $2.2MM to spend ... no idea if they are in on any of the better remaining prospects.
#396 · January 23, 2025, 11:02 am
Quote from fenn68 on January 23, 2025, 10:00 amQuote from MrPadre19 on January 23, 2025, 7:26 amApparently AJ in talks with Minn for Catcher Vazquez.
Didn't hit any better than Campy last season and is owed $10 mil?
Word is they are interested in Cease.
Cease to Mn for Vazquez/Morris/Keaschall + $5 mil?
Rather give them back Arraez
This would save us $9 mil...
Guessing MINN would say no to that deal ...
giving up two high quality prospects for one year of Cease would be hard to swallow. Not sure where Keaschall and Morris will land on the new 2025 Prospect (Keaschall was #63 in 2024 and had a good season) and the unranked Morris had a very strong season.
On the Padres' side, can the Padres compete without Cease (Leaving only Darvish and King as SP)? Doubt (in 2025) Vasquez has more value than Cease with the prospects not ready / proven.
Since both teams seem to lower (or at least not increase) payroll ... fencing over money has to be in play. My guess is that MINN would have to get cash equal to the difference between Vasquez - Cease (about $4MM) and everyone payroll-wise stay the same.
On this Padres roster ... trading Cease is a major problem if the Padres want to contend.
I'm thinking though with the AL Central very winnable they may go for it.
Obv maybe not those very players but I could see a Division contender over paying for one year of Cease.He is the kind of player someone would do that for if they are in "win now" mode and IMO Min is.That Division seems like a toss up right now between Min/Det/Clev
Not that I "want" us to trade Cease.
#397 · January 23, 2025, 12:06 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on January 23, 2025, 11:02 amQuote from fenn68 on January 23, 2025, 10:00 amQuote from MrPadre19 on January 23, 2025, 7:26 amApparently AJ in talks with Minn for Catcher Vazquez.
Didn't hit any better than Campy last season and is owed $10 mil?
Word is they are interested in Cease.
Cease to Mn for Vazquez/Morris/Keaschall + $5 mil?
Rather give them back Arraez
This would save us $9 mil...
Guessing MINN would say no to that deal ...
giving up two high quality prospects for one year of Cease would be hard to swallow. Not sure where Keaschall and Morris will land on the new 2025 Prospect (Keaschall was #63 in 2024 and had a good season) and the unranked Morris had a very strong season.
On the Padres' side, can the Padres compete without Cease (Leaving only Darvish and King as SP)? Doubt (in 2025) Vasquez has more value than Cease with the prospects not ready / proven.
Since both teams seem to lower (or at least not increase) payroll ... fencing over money has to be in play. My guess is that MINN would have to get cash equal to the difference between Vasquez - Cease (about $4MM) and everyone payroll-wise stay the same.
On this Padres roster ... trading Cease is a major problem if the Padres want to contend.
I'm thinking though with the AL Central very winnable they may go for it.
Obv maybe not those very players but I could see a Division contender over paying for one year of Cease.He is the kind of player someone would do that for if they are in "win now" mode and IMO Min is.That Division seems like a toss up right now between Min/Det/Clev
Not that I "want" us to trade Cease.
Agree some team would be willing to "overpay" for Cease ... of course no idea what is fair value that would be a base to determine "overpay". Bet that varies depending on who is valuing the players involved.
MINN is a good candidate as a trade partner ... would think BALT and BOST would also make viable trade partners with the need and the prospects. I would not rule out a Cease trade if one of those teams cracks on makes a bid "that cannot be refused". Preller could be playing one vs the other with no hurry.
My hang-up is that dealing Cease to a contender will not return any significant ML player ... probably some very good prospects ... and in turn, Padres will probably be giving up a run at the playoffs with only Darvish and King followed by a string of mediocrity. Never going to add (via FA or trade) anyone who will come close to Cease without paying a premium price.
Still sitting the the back of my mind is the potential that the real cash payroll target is well below the $208MM where they currently sits. If that is firm ... Preller may have to gamble more on playoff contention by dealing some combo of Arraez, Cease, Suarez, Peralta, King (all potentially gone after the season) to yield the best long term / low cost return. That would put Cease right in the crosshairs of a trade.
#398 · January 23, 2025, 12:24 pm
A scenario that might increase the odds of dealing Cease (and his $13.8MM):
- Agree to a one year deal with King at his price ($8.8MM) the sign him to a new contract for 2026 and beyond (maybe 5 years, $22MM AAV) ... should not be a CBT issue in 2026.
- Trade Cease for prospects with at least on good ML (or ML ready) prospect for LF or 1B.
- Those two moves put the Padres down about $13MM in Cash payroll
- Trade Arraez ($14MM) for a prospect hopefully ML ready but not likely
- Sign Profar to replace Arraez on a deeply back loaded 3 year deal .. maybe $8MM in 2025 ... now those two moves push the cash payroll down to about $19 MM ... and allow for some MINOR FA adds to balance the roster.
- Need more, trade Suarez and Peralta (another $14.5MM) where backfill is in house and at least Suarez could yield a ML useful position player prospect.
End state is potentially a much deeper, upgraded line-up #1-9 at the cost of one SP. SP would become the only problem (a big one) but Preller has landed some decent under the radar arm (and some money to do that) and Niebla' coaching is key plus through the start of the season ... the spring mid-season for that final SP as a rental.
Complicated but could work if the financial needs while still having a strategy to contend are both needed to be met. Plus does a lot to solidify a strong base for 2026.
#399 · January 23, 2025, 12:26 pm
That's why I was including Morris as he is just about MLB ready.
IF,and of course it's a big if,we can get a young controllable starter who turns out to be at least good enough to be a #3.....anf another player and some salary relief it may be worth it.
Still rather keep Cease and trade Arraez/Suarez but we'll have to see which players other teams are willing to pny up aenough for AJ to pull the trigger.
Otherwise we roll with ST winner between Ornelas/Gonzalez/Gomez/Lockridge in LF and see what happens by the deadline.
Arraez-DH
Tatis-RF
Merrill-CF
Machado-3B
Cronenworth-2B
Bogaerts-SS
????????-1B
Campy/Sullivan-C
Lockridge/Gonzalez/Ornelas-LF
We need Profar
Do we add Ty France as a 1b/DH/PH?
#400 · January 23, 2025, 1:32 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on January 23, 2025, 12:26 pmThat's why I was including Morris as he is just about MLB ready.
IF,and of course it's a big if,we can get a young controllable starter who turns out to be at least good enough to be a #3.....anf another player and some salary relief it may be worth it.
Still rather keep Cease and trade Arraez/Suarez but we'll have to see which players other teams are willing to pny up aenough for AJ to pull the trigger.
Otherwise we roll with ST winner between Ornelas/Gonzalez/Gomez/Lockridge in LF and see what happens by the deadline.
Arraez-DH
Tatis-RF
Merrill-CF
Machado-3B
Cronenworth-2B
Bogaerts-SS
????????-1B
Campy/Sullivan-C
Lockridge/Gonzalez/Ornelas-LF
We need Profar
Do we add Ty France as a 1b/DH/PH?
Seems about right. Although not good defensively at 1B ... if they deployed Arraez at 1B that opens up options for the DH role to other OF / INF ... maybe in some platoon fashion with the added benefit of filling in the field as needed.
Actually if they can re-sign Profar for LF and deploy Arraez at 1B ... that only leaves DH in play in the 9 man line-up ... and would be willing to risk a rotating audition of Brosseau, Ornelas (L), Rosario, Gonzales, Perlaza (#), and a low cost FA or trade return (maybe for Suarez). Possible that the Padres can net out the contracts of Profar with Suarez move down a bit on CBT while preserving King and Cease.
Minimal moves with the only loose end being the unknown CASH bogey.
If needed to go down more ... a little deal Peralta ... if more deal Arraez.
Looked at the still unsigned batters in FA ... there are a lot so should expect some will really come down to the $1-3MM (or less) deal just to keep playing. Not great options but a decent chance of being better than the current options ... so upgrades. France is a legit option but also out there is Hayes (former BALT OF who historically hits LHP).