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2024-25 Offseason Talk
#211 · January 4, 2025, 7:23 am
Are Eguy Rosario and Tirso Ornelas realistic bench pieces to replace Donovan Solano and David Peralta in 2025? Both are having excellent winter league seasons, building on what they did at EP in 2024. Rosario, however, has no options remaining and in a recent article by New Baseball Media was reported to have a Whiff Rate (swings and misses at pitches thrown) of 41.9% although his K% was only 14.6%. This disparity seems to indicate he can get that bat on the ball but chases a lot of pitches which is reflected in his major league career K% in the low 30's. On the other hand, Eguy generates a lot of power from his short stocky frame and destroys LH pitchers. He is also fairly dependable in the field at both 3b and 2b, can play shortstop in a pinch and even volunteered to play the OF to try to stick with the major league club. He even has enough speed to steal a few bases. Just like last year, Padres may go with Eguy at the beginning of the year but bring back Solano if Eguy fails to contribute enough to roster him.
As for Ornelas, has a very good eye at the plate and finally has gotten some lift in his swing. Limited defensively to LF or possibly 1b, Ornelas still has 2 options remaining. Without outstanding speed, he's going to have to show consistency in his AB's with sufficient pop to stay with the big club. Again, he could start the season with the Padres like Graham Pauley did as a LH bat off the bench, but could be sent down in favor of Peralta if he fails to produce.
In short, expect Padres to give both Eguy and Tirso every opportunity to make the team but both will have to show they are worthy of a playoff team, which Solano and Peralta have already proven over their long careers. Do Solano or Peralta have anything left at their respective ages? Likely they won't be in high demand so the Padres do have fallback low cost options going forward since both loved playing in San Diego last year with the core group that defines who the Padres are.
#212 · January 4, 2025, 8:09 am
I can see Ornelas and Rosario getting long looks in ST with realistic chances to make the squad. Rosario being out of options and the only INF bench option on the roster other than Wade gives him a leg up. Guess that Brosseau (non-roster but ML experience) will be pushing but could become AAA insurance early in the season.
Ornelas will have a shot to start in LF/DH ... only competition coms from non-roster Perlaza (#) and Gonzales and two of those three should make the 26 man (I assume Lockridge makes the club as back-up CF). One longer non-roster option for 1B/DH is Brooks who was also signed as a minor league FA.
Considering the Padres only have 12 position players on the roster ... need 13 so at least one non-roster will make the squad.
Would guess they could sign Solano and/or Peralta (L) in ST at very low prices but that may depend on what they do in trades to reduce payroll while changing the roster mix. Plus money go first to a second catcher (Diaz?). Even at their ages ... a Solano / Peralta (L) combo for DH may be better than the other options while still providing some bench depth for 1B/3B ... LF. That while holding on to Ornelas (L), Perlaza (#), and Gonzales as call-ups from AAA.
A ton of directions this can play out ... IF the Padres end up dealing Arraez - Suarez - W.Peralta ... that would clear about $29MM and MIGHT be enough to make the CASH payroll bogey and leave money to re-sign Profar (who if not signed in ST should come in much lower than projected and maybe a back ended deal). Plus do they get help for the ML roster in return ... just has to be better than the current options to slide in.
#213 · January 4, 2025, 9:13 am
Based on all the reporting this winter ... appears that the Padres will target a CASH payroll above the $169MM in 2024 but below the estimated $209MM (after ARB decisions) for 2025. Where that bogey is ... unknown ... but should suggest some trade(s) to reduce payroll (and hopefully get useful return pieces) before any adds are made (unless league minimum types).
If we assume a split of the $40MM difference down the middle ... Preller needs to net a $20MM decrease. I also assume he cannot find a trade partner for Bogaerts and/or Cronenworth that will take their contract(s) and give an offsetting ML value ... so net Padres would have a worse team if dealing either one (if they could) when you consider what is remaining on the FA market (and FA costs).
Also believe that Preller is trying to keep / build a roster that can make the playoffs ... the current roster may be right there baring injuries (no depth).
Generally, we see quality pitching shutting down quality hitting both in the season and especially in the playoffs during short series ... so Preller should ensure the SP is strong and deep.
So, even though, Cease may have the best market / return as a trade chip ... even if the sign Sasaki ... would not trade him. A Cease-King-Darvish-Sasaki SP would be able to dominate and cover an injury to any one. So where to go for Preller:
Trade Arraez ($14.6MM), Suarez ($10MM), Peralta ($4.5MM) ... clears about $29MM ($9MM more than my drop assumptions) and hopefully adds a useful ML piece or tw ... but nothing earthshaking.
Use the $9MM to add some FA upgrades for the offense to complement a still very strong base of Tatis, Merrill, Machado, Bogaerts, and Cronenworth. For $9MM probably could add Diaz, Solano, and Peralta with money left over or alternatively work out a creative back loaded deal with Profar with a low CASH 2025 and larger following years when Hosmer, Cease, and King drop out of the picture. (although this scenario may open enough to entertain the extension of King after the season).
Got to admit that is a lot of moving parts to orchestrate and the assumption of a $189MM payroll likely is off target but does set up a framework for probable strategy for Preller.
#214 · January 6, 2025, 11:01 am
Apparently NYY are talking about a possible deal for Arraez.
What would that deal look like? Do the Yankees have anyone appealing to Preller? Anyone that could possibly start for the 2025 SD Padres? Or would be looking at guys 2 years out from San Diego?
#215 · January 6, 2025, 11:29 am
#216 · January 6, 2025, 11:52 am
Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 6, 2025, 11:29 am
While this fight rages we can assume our payrolls will suffer
#217 · January 6, 2025, 12:29 pm
All I care about is that it doesn’t affect Sasaki
#218 · January 6, 2025, 1:23 pm
Quote from WindsorUK on January 6, 2025, 11:01 amApparently NYY are talking about a possible deal for Arraez.
What would that deal look like? Do the Yankees have anyone appealing to Preller? Anyone that could possibly start for the 2025 SD Padres? Or would be looking at guys 2 years out from San Diego?
Considering what the Padres paid for 2 years of Arraez ... don't expect a major return for what now is 1 year.
NYY have 3 SP in the minors (AAish) that could develop into a ML factor in 2025 ... or 2026 when Cease / King go FA. All are on MLBPipeline rated as a "50" prospect. In their system:
#5 Warren (25) RHP
#6 Hampson (23) RHP ... was a more highly regarded prospect before injury in 2023 ... biggest FB of the three
#7 Selvidge (22) LHP
No idea who would be projected better by Preller but given there are 3 somewhat bundled ... NYY may be willing to give up one.
If Preller sees none ... taking a higher upside prospect in the lower levels may be a better strategy ... and focus on deploying the projected $14.6MM ARB.
#219 · January 6, 2025, 1:36 pm
Quote from lafnboy13 on January 6, 2025, 11:52 amQuote from Jeremy Hill on January 6, 2025, 11:29 amWhile this fight rages we can assume our payrolls will suffer
Don't think ... in the short run ... this will change the payroll plan for 2025.
Longer haul ... disruption among owners and the ultimate resolution of control will impact the team. The lawsuit is just one side and no comments yet on the other side which will argue a different scenario.
Lawsuit is in Texas and likely will take a while to resolve. Well out of my understanding of the intricacies of trusts and what was/is buried in the details. The accusations that two of the brothers basically were selling assets to themselves at below market takes this beyond just the structure of the trust. No idea how that is handled in the courts.
#220 · January 6, 2025, 5:48 pm
Sheel Seidler is worried that Peter's brothers will relocate the Padres. I hope not. We don't need another Dean Spanos.