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2024-25 Offseason Talk
#141 · December 20, 2024, 2:52 am
MLBTradeRumors has a piece on Profar wanting a 3 year deal. To me a key is that there are no rumors of him involved with any teams while there being a desire by him and the Padres to hav a reunion.
estimates were having him get a 3 year / $40-45MM deal ... lack of buyers may make that over-reach and some creativity by Preller may get him back.
For the Padres it is an exercise in alternatives ... and the Padres have nothing of ML quality for LF (maybe 1B/DH) in the system for the near term and Profar beyond his ML skills is clearly a catalyst for the team. So, for me a 3 year deal does fit for the Padres maybe more so than any other team. That could be the swing factor in signing.
Money is an issue for 2025 but starting in 2026 ... Hosmer ($13MM) drops off and King, Cease, Arraez, and Suarez (likely) are FA. Should be more flexible even if re-signing one of them.
Therefore a 3 year back loaded contract may be the structure that gets Profar the size of contract he wants and the Padres the cash flow they want. Again not sure but a structure built on a low 2025 and PLAYER options for the next two seasons at a larger salary yields the same total ... gives Profar some flexibility ... while minimizing the 2025 CBT number (since the PLAYER option years don't count in the calculation for 2025).
The stumbling block is the unknown as to where the Padres stand on a budget target. If they need to move salary first to accommodate Profar (or any other FA) is a question.
I still see Profar as a Padre BUT I thought the same a couple of years ago when he bolted and signed with COLO ... so not a lock.
#142 · December 20, 2024, 8:12 am
As I have mentioned before, lets say it takes 3 years at $45M to resign Profar, I would think that it would benefit SD to up the value a little and stretch it to 5 years. So instead of $45M for 3, take it to $50M for 5. Profar gets an extra $5M to finish his career in SD, and SD saves $5M per year in AAV.
#143 · December 20, 2024, 8:50 am
Quote from BoosterSD on December 20, 2024, 8:12 amAs I have mentioned before, lets say it takes 3 years at $45M to resign Profar, I would think that it would benefit SD to up the value a little and stretch it to 5 years. So instead of $45M for 3, take it to $50M for 5. Profar gets an extra $5M to finish his career in SD, and SD saves $5M per year in AAV.
3 years cover ages 32-33-34 ... 2 additional years covers ages 35-36. So a 5 year deal is not necessarily out of the useful timeframe (in either sides view) ... so the question has to be value / cost. Part is what each side thinks he might command as a FA at ages 35-36 (understanding the inflation pushes up all salaries and considering the unknown of the new CBT in 2027).
Have to start what each side really believes he would get for the first 3 years (from any team) ... probably not $45MM/3 years but too early to tell. If it is that, only $5MM for two additional years will not fly. However, if both sides see the first three coming in at maybe $36MM, both sides may benefit might benefit with a 5 year / $50MM back loaded. Profar gets guaranteed money and avoids the uncertainty of FA at ages 35-36. Padres land Profar who they need now and probably for the next 5 years given little near arriving from the system near term. Profar also has the versatility to move around (LF, 1B, DH) as Padres fill positions to strengthen the roster ... so value over a 4-5 year run should hold (at at maybe AAV of $10MM in this era ... fair price).
I think it will happen at some point UNLESS Preller low balls the offer while Profar has a more appealing offer from another team. So no certainty.
#144 · December 20, 2024, 10:40 am
As things stand the team has 150m in AAV money committed to Machado, Bogaerts, Tatis, Musgrove, Darvish, Cronenworth, Suarez, Matsui, and Peralta through the 2027 season. Trades or opt outs could lower that a bit. As things stand if they want to stay out of the luxury tax that gives them 90m to fill out the roster. I'm guessing they'll avoid long term free agent deals as they try to integrate more young cheap players and get payroll to the level they want it at. If Profar doesn't find the deal he is looking for I think something like a 1 year deal with a player option with the majority of the money coming this season would be more likely if they were looking to keep the AAV down.
#145 · December 20, 2024, 11:08 am
3/20 for Christian Walker. Nice deal for both sides, there. I don't really have more than that to say about it, other than there's a universe out there here this might have been a nice fit for us. Not this one, though.
#146 · December 20, 2024, 12:08 pm
Usually don't pay much attention to these speculative proposals but Sporting News had interesting article that has Cease and Cronenworth going to Boston for Abreu, Casas and Mayer. I like that potential trade but would like it even more if they took back Bogaerts and we added a little cash. Mayer might be ready to step up at ss or we could re-sign Kim with the money saved; Casas at 1b and Abreu in LF if we can't get Profar back. Clears a lot of AAV. Boston could use a better 2b man and certainly needs a top of the rotation arm, even if for only one year.
#147 · December 20, 2024, 12:15 pm
Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 20, 2024, 10:40 amAs things stand the team has 150m in AAV money committed to Machado, Bogaerts, Tatis, Musgrove, Darvish, Cronenworth, Suarez, Matsui, and Peralta through the 2027 season. Trades or opt outs could lower that a bit. As things stand if they want to stay out of the luxury tax that gives them 90m to fill out the roster. I'm guessing they'll avoid long term free agent deals as they try to integrate more young cheap players and get payroll to the level they want it at. If Profar doesn't find the deal he is looking for I think something like a 1 year deal with a player option with the majority of the money coming this season would be more likely if they were looking to keep the AAV down.
Agree they will try to avoid any BIG long term deals and build around what they are committed to. However they still will want to fill out a competitive roster and $90MM for 17 players (mainly support and bench) when a number of them will be league minimum players is workable. So can see a few multi-year deals (just not BIG ones) to stabilize the roster and give more room to insert league minimum types.
IF CASH is more critical ... good chance meeting the CASH limit will naturally keep them under the CBT in that timeframe. Preller has often said they work off one year - three year - five year plans ... so without knowing CASH limits over that full timeframe a bit hard to figure how multi-year deals fit (or don't).
Seeing what "fringe" pitchers are signing for this winter ... and looking ahead for the market for Cease and King which should be big money / long term, might have to assume they do not get re-signed. I guess can extend that to incentive for Suarez and Peralta opting out and not being resigned. IF they don't return in 2026 ... Padres have to focus on internal pitching options (purely based on cost) and just might be more willing to a multi-year deal with position players (noting not much coming there in system). That COULD morph into multi-year deals for Profar and Arraez (both will be lower cost than the pitchers). That plan may lock in a top level offense for years, I think the internal RP options are strong (at worst depth with upside), leaving SP the at risk piece for the next few years. Sasaki signing would help with a Sasaki, Musgrove, Darvish then ???? internal development or one and done FA.
A lot of ways this can develop.
#148 · December 20, 2024, 12:24 pm
Quote from Randy Manese on December 20, 2024, 12:08 pmUsually don't pay much attention to these speculative proposals but Sporting News had interesting article that has Cease and Cronenworth going to Boston for Abreu, Casas and Mayer. I like that potential trade but would like it even more if they took back Bogaerts and we added a little cash. Mayer might be ready to step up at ss or we could re-sign Kim with the money saved; Casas at 1b and Abreu in LF if we can't get Profar back. Clears a lot of AAV. Boston could use a better 2b man and certainly needs a top of the rotation arm, even if for only one year.
As much as they may need a Cease and would like Cronenworth ... seems like a way overpay by BOST. All three suggested are high level prospects with Abreu and Casas at the ML level and producing.
If that were the return ... if I were Preller I would jump at it and even offer to buy down part of the contracts for 2025 or add a prospect to the deal.
#149 · December 20, 2024, 12:28 pm
It seems that a number of national types seem to lean towards BALT dealing for Cease. They do have a good mix talent to move (not as good as the BOST speculation but very good).
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Randy Manese
#150 · December 20, 2024, 7:04 pm
2024 was an outlier year for Profar…he is a career .245 hitter, he is not fast at all and his 10 SB were a result of the two-disengagement rule. his arm is average at best and his up tick in HR (24) was an anomaly He will regress to his norm and below in 2025,2026 and 2027 and with that in mind…2025 (13 million with 5 million deferred), 2026 (11 million with 3 million deferred) and 2027 ( 10 million with 3 million deferred) club option with 1.5 million buyout.
The deferral option works to his advantage because after he reverts back to his norm, he will be hard pressed to get more than 3-4 million on any contract past 2027 with 1-2 million most likely and it becomes a very nice retirement package and it works for the Padres because it helps keep them under the luxury tax.
2 years – 24 million with 8 million deferred or 3 years – 34 million with 11 million deferred.
I’ve said it before that FA is a game of musical chairs and when the music stop players will be scrambling for a job…Profar knows this all too well when he chose to opt out of his contract with the Padres a few years ago.