Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 8, 2024, 12:40 pm

Acee's latest names Jesus Luzardo, Zack Littell and Aaron Civale as potential trade targets. I think it's more just connecting the dots with cheaper pitchers who might be available than it is an actual report of interest. Unsurprisingly he also says he doesn't expect us to play at the top of the market. One surprising note is that he says he thinks it's just as likely Campusano is traded as it is that he's kept.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/2024/12/07/padres-have-moves-to-make-but-wont-be-on-winter-meetings-center-stage-this-year/

Quote from fenn68 on December 12, 2024, 5:17 am

Post Winter Meetings update on projected CASH payrolls as of now (per Cot's):

1. LAD ... $282MM
2. PHIL ... $264MM
3. NYY ... $250MM
4. NYM ... $238MM
5. HOU ... $212MM
6. SD ... $203MM

On the bottom:

1. A's ... $52MM
2. CWS ... $61MM
3. MIA ... $66MM
4. WASH ... $70MM
5. PITT ... $70MM
6. TB ... $72MM

Top teams are running 3X to bottom teams in cash outlay and SD is in with the big guys. If we are complaining about the LAD, NYY, NYM busting the limits ... think what the bottom teams are saying about the Padres.

 

 

Quote from Randy Manese on December 12, 2024, 9:36 am

It may not be just complaining about the LAD, etc. busting the limits but just buying their way into the playoffs/World Series without having to worry about the consequences of making a bad financial decision.  If there was a salary cap like in the NFL and NBA, you would probably have teams spending more money because (1) they are required to and (2) they have a legitimate chance to compete for a post season spot.  The salary cap also leads to more of a roster turnover, allowing movement of both stars and developing players to other teams.  Currently, only injuries to key players will slow down these mega-resourced teams but the playing field is far from level and no matter how brilliant your coaches and general manager are, simply buying up all the top talent typically trumps their hard work.  Since a salary cap is not going to happen, you are going to have teams like the present day White Sox and A's who have virtually nothing to offer their fan base season after season.  Most teams have just small windows of opportunity to make the post-season, but these big city behemoths are always in it because of the money the team generates.

With the Padres, the concern is how they invested the money they had available.  When they missed out on Judge and Turner, was Bogaerts really the right move?  Should they have gone after a top of the rotation SP instead?  With Soto, 2023 was supposed to be the year and we did need at least one more bat, but using the money for Bogey and then extending Cronenworth were poor decisions in 20/20 hindsight.  While Preller will never admit it, it sure seems Seidler was pushing for that 2023 season and a parade because he knew his health was quickly deteriorating.  Preller showed what he could do in putting together the 2024 team, but this year it will be much harder - much less minor league player capital to trade.  So, it is what it is and we have to give kudos to both Seidler and Preller for giving the Padres' fan base the opportunity for hope after many years of being in the doldrums.  Not complaining, but just wishing we had made better decisions with the money we had available when it was available.  Let's hope we catch a break or two in the off-season.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 12, 2024, 10:27 am

Heard one dialog that the money being spent before was not truly coming just out of Siedler's pocket ... it came from loans and "capital calls" from other owners (along with Siedler). If that really what occurred ... can't keep taking loans and at some point the other owners will not keep propping up the operating finances. Also heard that the MLB issue on debit service is not an issue for this year ... resolved with the drop in 2024 but could resurface if the team tries to take out more loans.

On the more pessimistic side (still only rumor) is that the direction is to increase the payroll slightly for 2024 but that opens the question: if 2024 was $169MM and if they slightly increase by 10% to $186MM that still is short of the $200MM+ currently projected payroll. So the could legitimately increase the payroll while still having to cut from the current roster. Fun with double speak.

Also, the Padres were able to somewhat skirt the cash payroll limitations over the past few years (and add pieces) by having both Machado and Tatis defer major annual cash payments until late in their deals. Padres have to watch out for the time they have to pay the piper in a few years.

I guess we will have to see the real game plan ... clearly not clear.

Quote from fenn68 on December 12, 2024, 11:02 am

OK a different exercise assuming (maybe not liking but accepting) the premise of a "slight increase" from the $169MM cash 2024 payroll. Going with legitimately possible moves at this point.

First, try to move the FA to be after 2025 ... not likely able to resign them given current market costs ... so get something of value now. To that end:

1. Arraez ,,, $14.5 MM
2. Cease ... $13.7 MM
3. Suarez ... $ 10.0 MM

Move those three and that drops $38.2MM and drops the payroll to maybe slightly below target leaving some money (potentially) for minor FA like Solano / Peralta last season.

Key would be getting in return in these trades some combo of league minimum ML players and ML-ready prospects to fill out the roster. The core position players are still around so maybe even stronger depending on the return. IF Sasaki signs SP would be not worse off. RP has some talent that can cover Suarez in my opinion.

Still believe they would still have a contending team and can pivot as needed at the trade deadline for "rentals" without having a cash demand (remember has been able to make those add with the selling team picking up money).

Not a comfortable approach but if this is the game Preller has to play ... it can work.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 12, 2024, 11:59 am

I think fans should have more outrage with regards to the teams that consistently refuse to spend. With revenue sharing I think every team could afford to run a payroll in the neighborhood of 150m. We can be mad about the Dodgers, but we should be mad about the A's too.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 13, 2024, 6:16 am

I'm a fan of a Floor and a Cap.

The way payrolls look at the moment something like $150 mil minimum and

$300 mil Max

MLBPA probably won't ever budge on this one though

 

Quote from Randy Manese on December 18, 2024, 8:47 am

Since the Winter Meetings are over, going back to this post for comments on possible Padres trades and when they may occur.  Unless the offer is overwhelming, don't think the Padres trade Cease until after 15 January, when the Sasaki decision is known.  If Sasaki doesn't sign with the Padres, might have to keep Cease until the trading deadline even if the Padres are competitive for a playoff spot; don't see them being competitive if only have Darvish and King as our SPs.  If Sasaki signs with SD, then likely trade Cease before arbitration figures are exchanged unless the potential returns from the trades are insufficient.  In fact, for both Cease and Arraez, believe Preller will want to get these trades completed before he has to go to arbitration with either or both.  King, although arbitration eligible, is in a slightly different category - this is one guy the Padres really really want to extend before the 2025 season starts, if possible.  He will prove in the next year to be more consistent than Cease and will shoot up in that 25-30M range if we don't nail him down soon for a lengthy deal.  I hope we can get him for something like we did with Musgrove - 20M for 5 years.

Does this jeopardize the Padres chances to re-sign Profar?  Don't think so.  Profar will wait as long he has to wait because he wants to stay in SD but it has to be at a number that respects him and what he brings to the team.  If the Padres can move other pieces, like Suarez and a few others, there should be enough room just over the 1st level of the CBT to sign Profar and the CBT is not really an issue until the end of the 2025; by that time Cease and/or Arraez may have been traded and their impact on the CBT deducted.  The only possible adverse impact on the Padres by taking the waiting game route is that Kim will likely sign elsewhere if he doesn't get an offer soon.  A healthy Kim is much more valuable to the Padres, in my opinion, than a healthy Arraez but Kim is likely not going to get a big contract after this year unless he signs a 1 year "pillow" deal; I expect him to jump ship if he gets an offer of a salary between 15-20M per season for 4-5 years.

While pitching is highly valued and expensive, it is also highly volatile and unpredictable.  A pitcher's health can deteriorate quickly and whatever mechanics that made him special can seemingly disappear overnight.  By the same token, pitchers can come out of nowhere and suddenly go from hanging on as a journeyman to a superstar with just a tweak in their mechanics, the addition of a new pitch or just a different pitch mix.  We have seen a lot of these overnight wonders recently, so why can't that happen with some of the pitchers the Padres currently have?  Besides, Preller and his scouts do an excellent job at finding pitchers that others seem to have missed.  Padres have a lot of pitchers in their system that have missed time due to nagging injuries but have a lot of promise - this should be an interesting year for their development as a group.

Quote from fenn68 on December 18, 2024, 1:27 pm

So much is dependent on Sasaki signing ... assuming we do have this payroll question while still having a strong roster that can contend (and Padres do still want to contend).

IF Sasaki signs ... have to think Cease is moved with his projected $13MM arb ... clearly will become FA after the season who the Padres can't sign (Boras agent) ... and likely to return a ML ready player (or two) that can fill immediate needs for the Padres.

Padres could move on to a few 1 year FA SP to fill the #4-5 SP slots ... all on one year deals in the $5MM range. Consider: Perez (L); Lorenzen; Junis; Rea; Turnbull; Soroka; Quantrill ... as time goes by and they are not signed ... maybe lower.

Agree that they will try to extend King ... and in 2026 the money should be there to improve on his 2025 est of around $10MM ... Cease will be gone and Hosmer will drop off the list. Also Suarez will probably opt out. I just don't see Arraez returning at $14.5MM beyond 2025 (if extend would think the Padres would try to drop his annual amount).

If they don't sign Sasaki ... they are not going to give up on 2025 and that leads me to think they have to keep Cease for a credible SP staff (1-3). With the budget issue ... that may just force them to move Arraez. Suarez and Peralta I see as at risk no matter whether Sasaki signs or does not.

Side that to help the offense ... can see re-signing Solano and/or D. Peralta for below $2MM for veteran (and productive) support pieces.