Quote from Stergios on July 30, 2023, 9:16 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 30, 2023, 7:20 am

Quote from Stergios on July 30, 2023, 7:14 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 29, 2023, 11:03 pm

With how good the starting pitching has generally been, Suarez back to stabilize the pen and the offense picking it up a little you can understand why AJ is hesitant to sell. It's been kind of a rollercoaster all season long though. We look really good for a couple games like these last 2 then we follow it up with a dud. They're going to have to be good a lot more consistently to climb out of the hole they've put themselves into. If they're going to buy (and I'm starting to feel like they are going to again) they need to be smart about it. Focus on controllable pieces. I don't want to give up anything significant for rentals.

Any controllable player we acquire though will cost us a or multiple top prospects.  Whom are you ready to part with?  Merrill?  Salas?  Lesko?

Not everyone controllable is worth those guys.

But I wouldn’t be shocked if we traded Merrill.

Especially if the plan is to extend Kim.

His value is high right now and his position on this team is as deep as any position on any team in MLB.

I’m fine with keeping him of course…But what if (and just a thought),you could get Goldy for this year and next for him and the Cards paid some of his salary…..worth it or no?

 

I’m probably in the minority here, but I’d say no.  I’m really concerned that this team is headed for a cliff as of 2025 with most of our guys in their thirties, past their prime and still under contract for years.  Merrill is the one young guy who is close to the Show and will be affordable.

Quote from Stergios on July 30, 2023, 9:23 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2023, 8:14 am

Controllable is good … or could be bad. Start with the player actually projected as good in the future … have to consider his salary (given the other roster upgrades needed) … and of course the price in prospect to get him.

Adam Frazier was controllable and that was not a plus move at the deadline. Sometimes it is better to go with the rental and regroup for next year during the winter when potentially more players may be moved.

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Personally don’t see any names being bandied about that would warrant the trade of Merrill (way too much upside) and the Padres have no assurance the can re-sign Kim without running out another very long / very large contract … there are limits even Siedler will have on total payroll and SP seems to be lurking as priority #1.

At some point (probably soon) the Padres have to start folding in some top talent at league minimum cost.

I will suggest that IF they do give the big contract to Kim … Merrill’s bat will work as the DH/5th INF or one of the 5 INF replaces Soto in LF in 2025 (whose contract will be hard to handle). Savings on Soto will more than pay for Kim … not considering the other moving parts in SP.

I’m thinking that I’d rather sign Soto to a monster contract than Kim to a very large one, all things considered.

If Kim costs 7 years, 175$ million, and Soto, ten at 450$, I go for Soto.  Thoughts?

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 30, 2023, 10:23 am

My problem with Soto is that he has fallen off against lefties and is not a good defensive outfielder. His numbers against right handers are right in line with his career numbers. He's at .290/.445/.567 in 2023 vs .295/.447/.559 for his career. Against lefties he's only at .212/.357/.354 vs .261/.373/.451 for his career. His numbers last year were also very similar. His average and slugging are way down and his K rate is up. The overall picture is still a top 10 bat, but with the poor defense he's looked more like an elite platoon player than an everyday star.

The poor defense also makes me think he's destined to be a primary DH before too long. With a 31 year old Manny and a soon to be 31 year old Xander likely also needing to shift down the defensive spectrum during the life of their contracts I'm not sure I would want to commit huge money to Soto.

Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2023, 10:38 am

Quote from Stergios on July 30, 2023, 9:23 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2023, 8:14 am

Controllable is good … or could be bad. Start with the player actually projected as good in the future … have to consider his salary (given the other roster upgrades needed) … and of course the price in prospect to get him.

Adam Frazier was controllable and that was not a plus move at the deadline. Sometimes it is better to go with the rental and regroup for next year during the winter when potentially more players may be moved.

—————————

Personally don’t see any names being bandied about that would warrant the trade of Merrill (way too much upside) and the Padres have no assurance the can re-sign Kim without running out another very long / very large contract … there are limits even Siedler will have on total payroll and SP seems to be lurking as priority #1.

At some point (probably soon) the Padres have to start folding in some top talent at league minimum cost.

I will suggest that IF they do give the big contract to Kim … Merrill’s bat will work as the DH/5th INF or one of the 5 INF replaces Soto in LF in 2025 (whose contract will be hard to handle). Savings on Soto will more than pay for Kim … not considering the other moving parts in SP.

I’m thinking that I’d rather sign Soto to a monster contract than Kim to a very large one, all things considered.

If Kim costs 7 years, 175$ million, and Soto, ten at 450$, I go for Soto.  Thoughts?

With the current long team contract burdens ... clearly a NO on Soto at $45MM clogging up the payroll flexibility with effectively a lesser team (think pitching) than 2023 and their losing record. Using that much on top of Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts, Cronenworth, Darvish, Musgrove, and Suarez might just lock the Padres into mediocrity for years.

Although I like Kim ... $25MM long term on him although not as much a problem as the $45MM for Soto is still a problem if you want a quality 26 man roster and the big near term hole is pitching once you get past Musgrove and Darvish.

For the team ... the $45MM for Soto should get a lot of holes filled with maybe 3 $15MM players to lengthen the line-up rotation and let the other super stars carry the team.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 30, 2023, 10:51 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2023, 8:54 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 30, 2023, 7:38 am

Quote from Stergios on July 30, 2023, 7:14 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 29, 2023, 11:03 pm

With how good the starting pitching has generally been, Suarez back to stabilize the pen and the offense picking it up a little you can understand why AJ is hesitant to sell. It's been kind of a rollercoaster all season long though. We look really good for a couple games like these last 2 then we follow it up with a dud. They're going to have to be good a lot more consistently to climb out of the hole they've put themselves into. If they're going to buy (and I'm starting to feel like they are going to again) they need to be smart about it. Focus on controllable pieces. I don't want to give up anything significant for rentals.

Any controllable player we acquire though will cost us a or multiple top prospects.  Whom are you ready to part with?  Merrill?  Salas?  Lesko?

There are controllable guys who could help who won't cost anything close to that. Someone like Mark Canha as an example, who has a club option for next season could give us a versatile bat and should not be to costly to acquire.

Canha is a good example of balancing the issues ... yes should be "easy" to trade for with a so-so prospect but maybe only with the idea of helping in 2023 ... his about league average wRC+ is clearly an upgrade at DH in 2023 however the club option for 2024 is $11-12MM for a 35 year old. Can that money in 2024 be used for a more critical need (SP) while getting similar DH performance out of a much loser cost option?

So, if you want him ... is he "priced" as only a 2023 add (therefore give less trade capital) with the intent of not taking the club option? If that is the logic would ... for the same price ... be better off going for Preller favorite and FA to be Tommy Pham from the Mets ... out hitting Canha this year?

The point is if we're going to buy it should be with a focus beyond this year. With the position we're in it's going to take a lot going right to make the playoffs. If it doesn't any prospect capital used on rentals was wasted. Canha was just an example of someone who would have a chance to help beyond this year. There's a good chance that even with significant adds this team comes up short this year. Giving up anything of significance for a rental would be irresponsible in my opinion.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 30, 2023, 7:29 pm

The Rockies just traded two of their best players to the Angels.

CJ Cron and Randall Grichuk.

That can’t hurt our chances the next few days.

 

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 30, 2023, 7:50 pm

Blackmon and Bryant are on the IL too. It's a good time to be headed to Colorado.

Quote from brent wolff on July 31, 2023, 7:53 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 30, 2023, 7:50 pm

Blackmon and Bryant are on the IL too. It's a good time to be headed to Colorado.

Blackmon normally crushes Padres pitching, so yes, it is a good time to be headed to Colorado.

Who is going to start the 2nd game in Colorado?  Does Groome finally get a shot?  Possibly Avila?  Probably not Wolf or Weathers.

If we don't win tonight, does AJP sell?  I think AJP & Siedler are all in and don't see them selling personally.  Not sure that is best for the team's long-term best interests, but this team has to be due for a longer sustained winning streak, doesn't it?

Also, with 45 sellouts already this season at Petco, has to increase the odds of standing pat and not selling so the sellouts continue thru the remainder of the season.  Go Pads!

Quote from fenn68 on July 31, 2023, 11:43 am

In a case for not throwing good money after bad ... consider the top CBT payrolls in 2023 and does that suggest just adding more payroll will not make the Padres better (in 2023 or 2024):

1. NYM ($330MM) ... behind the Padres and moved into the sell mode already (note that the mega money Cohen has already said that level of spending is NOT sustainable)
2. NYY ($299MM) ... out of AL East race and 3.5 games out of the Wild Card
3. SD ($285MM) ... enough said
4. LAD ($266MM) ... well they are in first place in the NL West but not necessarily due to all the big contracts ( except Betts / Freeman). Side note the LAD drop a lot of payroll this offseason and fall well below the CBT threshold (big chunk is Bauers) and are in a great position to pay Ohtani whatever and still be under the penalty level.
5. PHIL ($260.7MM) ... not winning the NL East and still outside in the Wild Card race.

Time to be smarter and not just spend.