Quote from Henry Silvestre on May 29, 2023, 4:35 pm

Quote from fenn68 on May 29, 2023, 12:14 pm

Well 1/3rd of he season in the books and a losing record (24-29) but played without Tatis for 20 games, injuries to Musgrove / Machado, and slumps for Soto (early) and Bogaerts (late) along with zip for the supporting players on offense. Yet, per Roster Resource the Padres are still given a 10% chance to win the NL West and 54% chance of the playoffs. So the next two months (prior to the trade deadline) will be critical on which direction the Padres take.

Although the poor play of the supporting players is an issue ... in my mind the season rests on the big 5 bats (Tatis, Machado, Soto, Bogaerts, and Cronenworth) all playing to expectations (and their contracts). They fail and the team will fail ... they succeed the team will succeed. So, not sure the Padres can do much (if anything) to change the team's destiny if the big 5 is failing at the trade deadline (besides not having much to deal for an impact player except the few remaining plus prospects in A ball). If that is the case, are the Padres sellers ... they have a few pieces that could get them some decent upper level prospects.

 

The big 4 have only played 18 games together 11-7 in those games...

Tomorrow is 1/3 .. game 54... A Win puts us at 25-29... June and July are very favorable schedule wise... so a 2nd 1/3 (next 54 games after tomorrow) of say 34-20.. and a final 54 of 30-24.. would give us 89 Wins.. which would be enough for WC 1 or 2.. the way this season is going in the NL...

Obviously Health of the 4 .. Suarez/Lugo coming back healthy at some point and Catching getting figured out .. would be huge keys .. But even as bad as we've been for 53 games.. we are only 3 games back of a post season ticket at the moment.. Key is winning as many tie breakers as we can and controlling our own future

vs

LAD 1-6

AZ 4-2

SF 2-0

MIL 1-3

ATL 4-3 WON the season series

Mets 1-2

Cubs 1-2

Reds 2-1

Col 1-1

Nats 2-1

 

So 19-21 vs NL

5-8 vs AL so far

Quote from fenn68 on May 29, 2023, 5:11 pm

Wild Card is certainly still in play with a good winning run. I expect that four of the teams ahead of them will falter: CINN; PITT; MIAMI; SF (Padres have a chance to take them out themselves). The challenge will be to pass NYM or PHIL for that last slot ... both have the talent to win. Fortunately neither are that far ahead of the Padres at this point.

The projected Division winners get the first three (ATL; LAD; MILW) and AZ would really have to take a major nose dive to get caught (but could happen).

At this point the focus is just to get the Padres to put on a winning streak ... and I think Jun has the schedule where they could do just that.

Quote from fenn68 on May 29, 2023, 5:22 pm

A one off thought with little probability of being what is going to happen BUT

1. Sanchez is a very bad defensive catcher and in mid-season has no idea about the Padres pitching staff
2. Sanchez' offense is not good but maybe better than someone who is not a catcher
3. Cruz (also a RHH DH) has been in May virtually invisible to the offense

COULD ... for now ... Sanchez actually be an upgrade to the RHH DH role while he gets acclimated to the pitching staff and the Padres keep Nola /Sullivan around but move on from Cruz? If Sanchez totally flames out ... still have Nola/Sullivan until Campusano returns (or another trade ... but that is no guarantee).

Just looking at this add from a different perspective.

Quote from BoosterSD on May 29, 2023, 6:05 pm

Quote from fenn68 on May 29, 2023, 5:22 pm

A one off thought with little probability of being what is going to happen BUT

1. Sanchez is a very bad defensive catcher and in mid-season has no idea about the Padres pitching staff
2. Sanchez' offense is not good but maybe better than someone who is not a catcher
3. Cruz (also a RHH DH) has been in May virtually invisible to the offense

COULD ... for now ... Sanchez actually be an upgrade to the RHH DH role while he gets acclimated to the pitching staff and the Padres keep Nola /Sullivan around but move on from Cruz? If Sanchez totally flames out ... still have Nola/Sullivan until Campusano returns (or another trade ... but that is no guarantee).

Just looking at this add from a different perspective.

This is more the idea I was thinking of, more a temporary DH than C. Although we will see what Melvin does.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on May 29, 2023, 6:09 pm

Quote from fenn68 on May 29, 2023, 5:22 pm

A one off thought with little probability of being what is going to happen BUT

1. Sanchez is a very bad defensive catcher and in mid-season has no idea about the Padres pitching staff
2. Sanchez' offense is not good but maybe better than someone who is not a catcher
3. Cruz (also a RHH DH) has been in May virtually invisible to the offense

COULD ... for now ... Sanchez actually be an upgrade to the RHH DH role while he gets acclimated to the pitching staff and the Padres keep Nola /Sullivan around but move on from Cruz? If Sanchez totally flames out ... still have Nola/Sullivan until Campusano returns (or another trade ... but that is no guarantee).

Just looking at this add from a different perspective.

I would offer Cruz the Batting Coach job as he enters his second career towards becoming a Manager.... keeps him in the clubhouse.. Sanchez has tremendous Power and is clutch and could be Alfaro+Voit like (2022 version) with many clutch hits as his #'s w/RISP indicate.. and maybe have Sanchez DH some and C some.. maybe let Sullivan C Yu /Snell and Wacha .. and Sanchez Joe and Weathers ..at 1st and then move him to 3/2 split with Sully..if he hits well can always DH him when Campy comes back.. meanwhile Nola can fight at AAA for his job back if he remembers how to hit again

Quote from Henry Silvestre on May 30, 2023, 8:25 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on May 29, 2023, 4:20 pm

Quote from fenn68 on May 29, 2023, 3:46 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on May 29, 2023, 3:14 pm

Gary Sanchez on a Major League deal.

 

They do have an open slot on the 40 man so no action there.

Will it be Sullivan optioned or Nola optioned / IL / released for the spot on the 26 man?

______________

Not a fan of Sanchez either offensively or defensively at this stage of his career ... but may still better offense than either Nola or Sullivan.

Power yes but not much BA and a high K%. Defensively has a big throwing arm but has a very poor track record on passed balls and catcher errors ... not a great rep in handling pitchers.

I guess they did not get impressed by Plawecki in AAA and (if it is Nola the odd man out) just saw the futility in sticking with Nola.

Probably a plus if you are looking for some offense ... but really on the margin (net) and will not move the needle up on the season.

Like Odor ...Sanchez brings his best with RISP.. Career

.227

.327

.486

.813

With RISP... and if you think he has regressed he was even better in 2022

.235 .331 .549 .880 (in 2022 with RISP) including 8 HRs

Compare those w/RISP #'s to Nola's 2023

.235/.331/.549/.880 with RISP in 2022

Quote from fenn68 on May 30, 2023, 11:08 am

Even though not a fan of Sanchez ... the logical part of my mind cannot figure out what he did not get a ML contract over the winter ... there are a lot of poor (worse) catchers in MLB and apparently his final price tag was not too bad.

Did some diving into his 2022 numbers with MINN. Of the 37 catchers with greater than 250 PA he ranked 17th in WAR and 21st in wRC+ ... not great but better than most of the 60 catchers on active rosters. Clearly better than either Nola or Sullivan this year but note that Nola in 2022 was 28th in WAR and 22nd in wRC+ ... so not a great difference between the two (similar PA) in 2022 ... but 2023 is different for Nola.

A couple of other observations with Sanchez: 1. his OPS was not great at home in MINN (77) but was good away (120) ... so some upside there; 2) OPS vs RHP (111) vs LHP (71) might impact the Nola (RHH) vs Sullivan (LHH) choice to be optioned; 3) particularly encouraging is how Sanchez performed in leverage situations ... High (147), Medium (137), low (47).

So no real surprise there that he should be an offensive upgrade in 2023 over Nola/Sullivan.

So per some of the measurements (not the full standard to evaluate a catcher) on defense ... with some surprise Sanchez was better than Nola in DRS and in dWAR by quite a margin ... although sitting in the middle of the pack of 40 catchers with > 700 innings caught.

All that leaves me with is the question as to why no team wanted to sign Sanchez to a ML deal this winter when ... statistically ... he was somewhere around the 15-20th best catcher in 2022. Ended up on a minor league deal that translated to $1.5MM if made the ML roster.

Quote from fenn68 on May 30, 2023, 11:13 am

Sullivan optioned to make room for Sanchez.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on May 30, 2023, 11:50 am

Sanchez's catcher's ERA has pretty consistently been 0.5-1 runs higher than the other catchers on every roster he's been on. He has a reputation for being a poor game caller and receiver. When he was putting up an .800+ OPS that was something you could live with. When he's not hitting it makes him a liability. The offense hasn't been there for a few years now.