Quote from MrPadre19 on March 15, 2022, 11:28 am

Yeah obviously if Suzuki does choose SD the need for a LF'er drops....although the need for a DH may still remain unless they just aren't gonna go the full time DH route.

Plus,I'm sure he has deals out there that include Hoz and Wil.....other teams waiting for their other offers to come thru before they entertain AJ's proposals.

It sure seems like teams like Pitt OR Balt would be willing to take on Hosmer at half cost to gain a couple high end prospects?

But....I guess not or it would be done by now.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on March 17, 2022, 12:37 am

It seems like a lot of people on this board are already writing off the Padres' 2022 season based on our failure to make a splash with FA's and the dismal end of the 2021 season.  I have to say I guess I'm a little more optimistic than most even with Tatis injury, so that might be a good place to start.  I've read where a fractured or broken wrist usually takes 6-8 weeks to heal completely.  The fact that the wrist obviously was not swollen enough to cause concern before he began rigorous workouts, is an indication to me that maybe the fracture was not as bad as we might think.  Furthermore, he had surgery, has always been a quick healer and if placed on the 60 day IL, should be back around the end of May.  By that time, we would have played 49 games with still more than 113 more to go so I don't think we'll be out of contention by then.

Looking at the team compared to last year at this time, it is basically the same team minus Pham and Melancon.  However, we have Clevinger back and reports on Darvish, Lamet and Paddack so far have been promising, so our pitching overall might be stronger than it was last year.  Further, we don't know whether Grisham will make strides to what we think his potential is and typically Hosmer and Myers start the season hot.  Can Profar and Kim get to league average or just slightly below?  Can Nola contribute on offense like we think he can?  I think this team, at least at the beginning of the season, looks more like the more recent versions of the Washington Nationals or even the Oakland A's, where they have to get by on pitching and defense but have little margin for error.  Melvin knows how to play that game, if he has to, and I believe over the course of the 2022 season, the team will get stronger vice collapse given Melvin's experience on how to handle adversity.

So, I'm still hoping to add a bat but don't want to give up the farm, literally, to get one.  For me that means don't trade Abrams or multiple higher level prospects because we are just rebuilding depth at the higher levels.  Lot of people complain about the most recent trades but none of those given up have advanced to star status, although Patino could in a year or two.  Sure it was tough to lose Franmil, but without a NL DH, he could not be a regular in the OF and Taylor Trammell had a lot of people high on his package of skills - it was worth a gamble at the time since there were no future major league CF's in the Padres farm system.  Will Caissie be better than Wood?  Will Preciado be better than Victor Acosta?  Give the team a chance!  Let's see what they can do before we go all doom and gloom.

Quote from fenn68 on March 17, 2022, 7:51 am

To make room for Martinez … Padres put Morejon in the 60 day IL.

I guess a strategic move using Morejon since he is actually throwing off the mound already but by going on now he will be ready to come off in mid-May when he should be fully ready for work in the minors. Actually he may be pitching in the minors sooner under re-hab rules (30 days for pitchers) and really lose very little development time. Or they could leave him on longer and use the re-hab time into mid-June. By then other injuries or mid-season trades could make room for him to return to the 40 man.

So Tatis to the 60 day IL is still in hand if needed for a roster spot … and since the timeline looks more like 90 days … might wait to use that move until (if needed) until opening day.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 19, 2022, 7:57 am

My lineup as is right now:

CF Grisham

2B Cronenworth

3B Machado

DH Voigt

RF Myers

1B Hosmer

C Nola

LF Profar

SS Kim

I’m hoping Abrams wins the SS job in Camp.

If so,to not put too much pressure on him I’d just swap him with Kim in the 9 hole.

If he excels….I’d hit him 2nd.

 

Quote from fenn68 on March 19, 2022, 10:57 am

Took a look at the current expected roster hitters ... and their wRC+ over the past 4 years which should normalize the short season and any hot or cold spells to yield some probability of performance:

137. Voit (1146 PA)

127  Machado (2264)

118. Cronenworth (835)

114. Nola (645)

111. Myers (1551)

106  Grisham (962)

99. Hosmer (2065)

97. Profar (1726)

87. Alfaro (1253)

87. Mazara (1335)

82. Caratini (967)

70. Kim (298) ... hope he improves until Tatis returns.

Actually fairly productive when Tatis returns and gets inserted up in the line-up. So, encouraging. Mazara at 87 after a terrible time in CWS/DET is surprising but reflects him in the low 90s in TEX (maybe returns to that productivity). Voit has more PA than most thought and that wRC+ validated the acquisition (if he stays healthy).

Quote from Randy Manese on March 19, 2022, 11:28 am

Most projections I've seen have Kim rising to at least the low 90's in wRC+ this year.  Certainly, he won't ever reach the levels he did in Korea but since he's getting paid more than Tatis is this year, he should be given a chance to show what he can do.  His ultimate ceiling is probably the right-handed version of Cronenworth, which really isn't too bad but that won't happen if he doesn't get more consistent playing time.  Having a DH in the NL will help get more AB's and into the flow of the game.   It may be an overly optimistic view of Kim but we've actually seen this in spurts last year and word is that he's been working hard in the off-season to handle top velocity better.

 

Quote from fenn68 on March 23, 2022, 3:44 pm

Padres start the season on Apr 7 with 14 consecutive games .. day off … 3 games … day off … 6 games (ending on May 1).

Will have the extra pitchers while the primary arms are building their innings … but those first 14 will be a challenge.

Do they go with 6 starters giving the extra day rest but maybe allowing the pitchers to go an extra inning to build endurance OR do the have them on a normal 5 day rotation to set-up the routine for the rest of the season but low in-game pitch count?

Quote from Randy Manese on March 23, 2022, 5:22 pm

With the roster expanding to 28 until 1 May, predicting Padres keep 15 pitchers and 13 position players, although it could even go 16 and 12, depending on how many innings they think they are going to get at the start of the season from Darvish, Musgrove and Clevinger.  My belief is that the first two will be able to go 6 from the outset while Clevinger will be at 6 before the end of April.  What I'm thinking is that Snell and Paddack piggy-back the 4th slot while N. Martinez and Gore piggy-back the 5th spot.  That still leaves 8 relief pitchers - Adams, Garcia, Hill, Johnson, Lamet, Pagan, Stammen and Suarez with Pomeranz going on the IL.  Stammen and Johnson could be the long men at the beginning of the year, but the need for that will diminish if we get more than 3 innings out of each of the piggy-back starters.  At El Paso, we'll have Crismatt, Kerr, Wilson, Knehr, A Martinez and possibly Castillo and Morejon when they ready plus some of the NRI who have looked good, like Tayler Scott and Ian Krol.  I'd want to stretch out Weathers down at AA and give him many innings to hone his stuff.

That's my plan for the first month provided there are no trades and the effectiveness of the pitchers will determine who stays up or goes down in May.  Also, should be getting back Pomeranz in early May and we'll know the effective of those pitchers at El Paso by then.  Gore and Paddack both have 3 options left and pitchers could be traded after the season starts, so our new-found (i.e., NO MORE INJURIES PLEASE) will help carry this team until Tatis gets back to fortify the offense.  Don't see a future for Guerra or Norwood with the Padres unless DFA'd and not claimed by anyone.

Quote from fenn68 on March 23, 2022, 5:50 pm

Agree on Guerra and Norwood being dropped from the roster but a bit foggy one the rules given both have long minor league records.

Can Padres DFA them and if not claimed assign them to the minors or do they just put them on release waivers sending them to FA? Would think at some point they qualify as 6 year minor league FA. Still could re-sign them but they have a say in that.