Quote from Brian Connelly on March 10, 2020, 8:28 am

FENN,   It's a pet peeve, but no one pushes the Padres "pushing" their top prospects to the point of irrationality than you!

It's not irrational for Trammell to go to AAA, but it is if Naylor, Olivares, AND Cordero are already there!  Why not put Trammell @ AA in that scenario so all 4 OF of near future can ALL play every day & develop.  Then Trammell up a level when one moves up to MLB.

I'm higher than most on Trammell (have him #2 in system > Patino & Abrams), but don't love the idea of him skipping AA when he struggled there all year last season in both the Southern & Texas leagues till hot streak @ end & playoffs.  Why not PROVE he can succeed there vs masking it with PCL inflated stats.

As for the roster composition, I guess I'm in the minority on that one too...  I feel Tatis & Machado are going to play MORE "every day" than Pham (esp early in year), Myers, & especially Grisham--when the plan a month ago was for him to platoon with a RH.  While I agree Naylor & Cordero would benefit from more development time, I like the idea of Naylor on Pads as LH corner OF getting SOME starts vs RHP, and just a good LH bat with some pop on bench.  I agree Almonte, but as the 5th OF who would primarily get some starts in CF vs LHP.    I do agree that Almonte's defense likely not good enough anywhere to displace any starter as a defensive sub (hence the bring back Freddy posts)

I'm just having trouble seeing how a THIRD "2B"/INF on bench is more valuable than a 5th OF who could have a defined role?  If as likely Profar, Dozier, & Garcia timeshare 2B & first two MIGHT (but maybe not in April?) take some starts at 1B vs  LHP... where does that leave the 3rd bench INF?  Would literally NEVER start with Profar around?

So I think SH Almonte adds more "utility" than France or Cronenworth as the last bench guy. BUT he does have the real disadvantage of having to be added to a full 40-man, forcing a move.  That alone might be enough for him to be in AAA.

Cordero up if any OF or Hosmer hurt (Myers to 1B?), Cronenworth up if any of the 4 middle INF hurt, France really covering only Machado & possibly Hosmer.  If Cordero gets rolling in AAA, could trade places with the much younger Naylor.... but Trammell is hot on both of their heels.

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 10, 2020, 8:52 am

I just have to post too...  the Padres have been so bad at MLB level for so long, it is going to be an adjustment for all of us to increasingly see prospects simply blocked; as the depth begins to push back from the top down vs the bottom up, the # of players "racing through the system" & skipping levels IS going to slow down by definition.

I am not "against" guys moving quickly & being pushed, but I really think a lot of that movement is often b/c there's no reason not to... i.e. lack of a legit prospect at that level a guy's being bumped up to.  An example is Owen Miller.  Jumps to AA last year & played well (though not great in AFL).  This year with the scramble for stopgaps at 2B in MLB/AAA it's looking like he might be blocked from advancing to AAA.

 

Quote from fenn68 on March 10, 2020, 9:15 am

I had Trammell pegged of AA before ST because of his AA struggles in 2019 (and still may end up there). However, have to push that versus Preller's comments over the years about moving top prospect to the level that challenges ... as they did with Tatis. IF we believe the ST hype on Trammell's development ... Preller may see a AAA move for Trammell the best for him (and the organization's future). Room in AAA, given Naylor can DH or play 1B with Cordero and Olivares in the other two OF spots. Boils down to Preller's view on where Trammell sits on the development cycle.

My guess Preller looks at each prospect differently and the top prospects IF they are deemed ready for the jump to a higher level will get elevated and the "lesser" prospects at that level get moved out of the way. However, if it is a pitcher ... may just not want them in EP so in those cases a "lesser" prospects gets the jump.

My comments were focused on what Preller might do ... not my view to be clear.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on March 10, 2020, 10:01 am

Quote from fenn68 on March 10, 2020, 9:15 am

I had Trammell pegged of AA before ST because of his AA struggles in 2019 (and still may end up there). However, have to push that versus Preller's comments over the years about moving top prospect to the level that challenges ... as they did with Tatis. IF we believe the ST hype on Trammell's development ... Preller may see a AAA move for Trammell the best for him (and the organization's future). Room in AAA, given Naylor can DH or play 1B with Cordero and Olivares in the other two OF spots. Boils down to Preller's view on where Trammell sits on the development cycle.

My guess Preller looks at each prospect differently and the top prospects IF they are deemed ready for the jump to a higher level will get elevated and the "lesser" prospects at that level get moved out of the way. However, if it is a pitcher ... may just not want them in EP so in those cases a "lesser" prospects gets the jump.

My comments were focused on what Preller might do ... not my view to be clear.

Trammell played hurt before we traded for him (part of his struggle?) his analytics were still strong OBP especially last yr-- after the trade (Padres tweaked his swing) he struggled for about a month and then HE EXPLODED-- from Late August on-- in the AA postseason he went crazy (.943 OPS).. and has yet to slow down-- So if you think he struggled lat year by looking at BA strickly, look beyond the numbers and you'll find a guy who is borderline ready for MLB duty NOW!

Quote from 3fingersplit on March 10, 2020, 10:48 am

Quote from fenn68 on March 10, 2020, 8:09 am

Quote from 3fingersplit on March 10, 2020, 7:31 am

The whole outfield portion of the roster depends on where Pham is on opening say...able to throw or on the DL...the guys elbow is fubar

Two weeks to find out where Pham lands. Apparently scheduled to take the field later this week ... has his throwing up to 150 feet. They would probably go with Pham in LF even if his throwing in restricted as long as they don't see that as a precursor to a more serious IL stint. Need his offense.

However, if they can't deploy him in the field ... likely directly to the IL and ????? replaces him. Not "comfortable" with any of the existing candidates stepping in and actually being productive anywhere near Pham's level.

Probably would go with the player the fans don't want in Naylor (most ML experience of the "prospects") ... at least to START 2020 (maybe with some platooning with Almonte). Cordero is just not getting any playing time this spring ... so don't know what is going on with him. Wild card move .... Profar in LF.

I HATE the fact that the Padres traded for damaged goods and make no mistake Pham is damaged goods...Preller got played. WE gave up Renfroe and Edwards and whoever for what ?........but not to worry because we have Naylor, Cordero and Almonte or even Profar in LF......OMG.........I hope Renfroe has a career year in Tampa Bay and hope Pham plays at least 81 games.....This one is on you AJ

I gotta go before I say something that gets me banned

Quote from fenn68 on March 10, 2020, 11:11 am

Meanwhile in TB some fans are saying how could the Rays trade one of the better RP in MLB for Manny Margot ... in 21 ST AB: 095/174/143!

Probably also upset that a key part of the offense (Pham ... who could DH for them) for Renfroe ... in 26 AB: 192/276/231.

Two guys who helped TB to the playoffs for two guys who helped the Padres to a 90 loss season ... I can see the seeds of some discontent amongst the TB faithful.

Long season ... still can go a lot of ways. My bet, all four under perform expectations.

Quote from LynchMob on March 10, 2020, 12:57 pm

Quote from fenn68 on March 10, 2020, 11:11 am

Long season ... still can go a lot of ways. My bet, all four under perform expectations.

I'll bet that Pagan exceeds (moderate) expectations ... and the other 3 under perform (low) expectations.

The key, for me, will be how much we miss X ... I'll bet we end up missing him ... but that it won't hurt much because the Padres will do well at 2B with the other pieces that they have in hand.

PS.  I will define my (moderate) expectations for Pagan as matching the Fangraphs Depth Chart forecast ... that's 65 IP with 1 WAR ...

Emilio Pagan

65.0

11.4

2.5

1.4

.298

76.0 %

3.57

3.61

1.0

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 11, 2020, 7:05 pm

Love the patience shown by our hitters so far in this one.
Love the catch by Myers.
Love the great three innings by Quantril!

 

Quote from fenn68 on March 11, 2020, 7:13 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 11, 2020, 7:05 pm

Love the patience shown by our hitters so far in this one.
Love the catch by Myers.
Love the great three innings by Quantril!

 

You must be getting the Cubs feed ... here we have the other game and Lamet has been strong out of the blocks. Profar makes an outstanding play on a slow roller to 2B. Cordero (who is playing CF) came to bat vs. a LHP and smashed (really smashed) the first pitch for a single up the middle to drive in a run.