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#191 · June 11, 2019, 8:52 am
Quote from Commie on June 10, 2019, 5:36 pmQuote from ramrodd on June 10, 2019, 2:12 pmhttps://twitter.com/advancedstats23/status/1138181655862992899
Do they work backwards and sign Hampton then see who among the others they have the budget left over to sign? I mean if he is the best of the bunch and all.
"A team that outspends its pool by 0-5 percent pays a 75 percent tax on the overage"...
Using what MLB.com is reporting: then assuming 9th round pick (Sr) Blanchard signed for $5k, and Vandy 6th rounder Fellows signs at slot value... Padres would have about $2,050,000 remaining in their bonus pool. BUT they can exceed their 10.75MM pool (this assumes they sign Head) by up to 5% which = another 537K. So Pads have a hard total of around $2,587,000 available for: going over slot of $721.9K to Hudson Head, and $125K to Hampton & all other 11th round+ picks. The tax on the overage is a max of $400K which is "next to nothing" relative to the entire draft pool.
With this info, I can see them going a little high on Head, + 2 MM max to Hampton (2.125MM total), and enough to go significantly over on maybe 2 more guys. Hampton, Head, & Feole +1 would be the "home run" (no $ left for Josh Rivera). The plan B if you don't get Hampton is you sign Rivera and every other "above slot" draftee...
Either outcome looks good, but I'm being optimistic and thinking they do sign Hampton.
#193 · June 11, 2019, 12:28 pm
Quote from David Nevin on June 11, 2019, 12:11 pmQuote from ramrodd on June 10, 2019, 1:57 pm7th Round Conner Lehman sign for 35,000. Slot value is 225,800.
Why would this kid sign for so little?
A not very good College SR prospect who probably had an understanding with the Padres that if they drafted him that high he would sign low. Zero leverage and probably "knew" he was really a late 3rd day guy.
#194 · June 11, 2019, 12:40 pm
Not sure on the technical side of things but guessing before any of the over slot signing happen the team needs to be sure the league has approved the contracts for the players who signed under slot to ensure they have that money to play with. Just a measure of caution and it takes some time to get the contract signed, submitted, and officially approved.
Sounds as though Head will be "over slot" ... a bit surprised but would expect the Padres had a good idea of his signing range before the pick but maybe the late pick of Hampton (and the legit potential of signing him over slot) may have impacted Head's negotiations.
Head was picked at #84 with a slot value of $722K. He was ranked as #122 and if he were picked there, the slot value would have been only $469K. So some could argue that by picking him that high the Padres are already paying a premium if signed at slot. Of course Head could have other thoughts and potentially the Padres could think somewhere between those two amounts is fair while generating some more under slot money.
Still no real idea how far Hampton will come down from this initial $2.7MMish demand.
So how low will Hampton sign for plus how high will the Padres have to go to get Head makes for a challenging back and forth to get both.
#195 · June 11, 2019, 1:51 pm
Getting both would be a coup!
Let's git er done!
#196 · June 11, 2019, 3:56 pm
Head was picked at #84 with a slot value of $722K. He was ranked as #122 and if he were picked there, the slot value would have been only $469K. So some could argue that by picking him that high the Padres are already paying a premium if signed at slot. Of course Head could have other thoughts and potentially the Padres could think somewhere between those two amounts is fair while generating some more under slot money.
Still no real idea how far Hampton will come down from this initial $2.7MMish demand.
So how low will Hampton sign for plus how high will the Padres have to go to get Head makes for a challenging back and forth to get both.
Good point on Head... by one ranking he was "over drafted" already. I on gut instinct assumed he wouldn't require MORE than Mears got (1 MM). So his slot + 280K max (likely less).
Hampton's (Father's) demand is interesting & rooted in reality: 2.75 MM is the slot for the 25th guy picked in draft (1st round). My suggestion of 2 MM + 125K "no count" vs pool = 2.125 MM is the slot for about the 35th guy picked. Hampton comes in exactly between those two by MLB.com ranked #29.
His side can argue his ultra elite athleticism. Other side is he plays a contact high injury risk sport that could jeopardize him getting drafted down the road in either sport, and that by playing 2 sports through High School he is less advanced/developed than some other HS players, which would be exacerbated if he played both (?) in college.
We will see, but it does sure look like the Pads constructed their draft around the possibility of getting a big fish like him with so much under slot $; top 2 picks over 1 MM combined under slot, and only 1 (maybe?) over-slot pick of 11 guys in first 10 rounds. Abrams "falling" to them at 6th might have really been ideal scenario / catalyst for structuring the rest of their draft b/c it's extremely likely they knew they could sign him well under slot value.
#197 · June 11, 2019, 4:27 pm
Your idea for Hampton seems right. Even though he was ranked at a level that would generate the initial demand of $2.75MM .. no one drafted him there (or anywhere in the early rounds). Maybe there is a disconnect with the rankings by others and the evaluation of the teams? Did his reps give a "too hard to sign" vibe that just pushed the teams away.
IF he were baseball only ... might be easier to work a deal at those dollars. Just don't know his love for football (risk and all). AJ Brown's decision to go to college to play football worked out well for him as a high NFL draft pick vs. a more modest Padres' bonus.
Not sure at what point the Padres shift to just one of Head or Hampton and go all in on the other Day 3 hard signs.
#198 · June 11, 2019, 5:15 pm
Many guys choose not to sign and go to College and it backfires.
Karsten Whitson
Can negotiate both ways I guess.
#199 · June 11, 2019, 5:56 pm
Head and Hampton have nothing to do with each other. The Padres drafted Head where they did to sign him. While Head was drafted where he was and his rankings were lower it seems the industry was higher on him, HS guys that get drafted where expected generally get more than slot because they have leverage. Padres know how much it will cost to sign him and will sign him. The question really is what hampton's true demands are and whether we can afford him, if not they'll have good money to go after guys like Rascon/Tarver/Feole/ Cobb and other lower level HS guys, as well as trying to get rivera to change his mind.
#200 · June 12, 2019, 8:44 am
Picks have to be signed on or before July 12th .... so a lot of time to go.
Although a very good chance the Padres sign both Head and Hampton given the money available ... there is always a chance that the money does not fit the combined demands and the Padres have to make a call.
1. Hampton (ranked as the 29th best prospect) is the elite high ceiling option and COULD demand so much that the Padres can't meet Head's demand. Padres go Hampton and pass on Head?
2. Head (ranked as the 122nd best prospect) has ceiling but not near the scouting upside of Hampton. However, opting to sign Head at his demand vs. Hampton leaves a ton of money to sign 3rd day over slot prospects.
We do have the unknown of the Padres relative view of the upside (and risk of achieving) between Head and Hampton, so that is a factor. Preller likes the high upside play and will take the risk plus with the state of the farm system not sure that adding a collection of "nice" 3rd day prospects is critical.
Again, hopefully sign both but if you believe the rankings ... sign Hampton and lose your Head ... don't really care about the 3rd day picks.