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When to End the Pham Era?
#11 · July 26, 2021, 9:13 am
Quote from BoosterSD on July 26, 2021, 8:48 amLets say that both Pham and Nelson Cruz are both looking for $12-14M next year, that SD would chose to chase Cruz. Much better bat, and IMO would fit better in the dugout over Pham.
So I think its entirely possible Pham prices himself out of most teams opinion of Pham.
Since Cruz will likely be going for a 1 year deal and Pham will likely be trying for a 2-3 year deal ... good chance Padres would go Cruz first in that $12-14MM range. Of course, Cruz may prefer not to sign with SD given he may be in demand from all the NL if the DH is in play and some AL teams.
I see the fans not being high on Pham ... but it seems to me that the clubhouse does not have any issue with him and clearly Preller likes him. Of course Preller liking him does not sway Preller from seeing a better option if Pham pushes for a unacceptable deal.
Would expect Pham's target contract will keep him on the open market deep into the off-season ... ample time for teams to look for other options.
Pham's remaining 2021 productivity will play a large role ... just the hint of diminishing productivity should squash and big / long-term deal for a to be 34 year old.
#12 · July 26, 2021, 9:30 am
Hoping that Pham finishes strong since that would make our chance for success in the playoffs much better , however, his replacement is now on board (Frazier) or over the horizon (Abrams/Hassell). He will probably price himself out of the San Diego market since Frazier is eligible for arbitration and likely will get close to what Pham is earning now. Don't see us going over the cap substantially for a possible part-time player. Likely invest any future dollars in starting pitching, sorting out who goes and who stays among the current starters and those coming back from injury, and possibly another RP or two. The latter market is usually very fluid and I see pitchers wanting to come to San Diego because of the competitiveness of the team and a good stadium to pitch in. Let's see what other trades happen but even if we can move Hosmer and/or Myers I believe the likelihood of Pham coming back is close to zero.
#13 · July 26, 2021, 10:05 am
Not re-signing Pham will avoid about $12MM in 2022 .... if they can move Hosmer at $20MM next season (or at least a major portion) ... knowing the Myers at $20MM is a FA after next season (so is Clevinger at $8MM in 2022) ... believing that Abrams will be up (and a factor) in 2023 and Hassell soon after .... COULD Preller go big with another $30MM AAV deal with Bryant? Maybe some backloading.
It would fit the Preller "go big" while a legit contender plan. Getting bogged down with Pham in his declining years would be worrisome.
#14 · July 26, 2021, 10:20 am
A lot of good free agent bats going to be available.
I just don't see us spending $10+ mil for the DH next season.
More likely they re-sign Pham and rotate the DH amongst the 8 position players or sign a guy coming off a down season like Kole Calhoun,Corey Dickerson or Jorge Soler at a discount and hope for a rebound.
But as Randy said if Pham finishes this season strong(which we all hope) he may price himself out of our range and if he doesn't we may want to move on.
I just don't see us straddling the luxury tax line to start next season.....but I never thought we would this season either.
#15 · July 26, 2021, 11:58 am
Think we will be bouncing back and forth trying to out guess Preller all they way into ST ... since he will be continually trying to get the best mix and every day (hour) that changes depending on others.
Agree that it is "unlikely" he goes for a DH only player (e.g. Cruz) but spending $13MM on an "excess" position player for that rotation through the DH ... yes ... especially if they are successful in moving Hosmer. Need to spend near that level to get a quality hitter suitable for a contender.
Right now, the roster has the 9 bodies with Frazier added (and a bench of Profar / Kim) to handle the DH and injuries / spot rests (assumes Pham is re-signed). That could work but is it good enough with Hosmer still in the mix? If they move Hosmer, don't re-sign Pham they actually open the window of adding two new bats that are not limited to just one position ... if they can. Keep guessing!
#16 · August 3, 2021, 4:32 pm
Anyone have Pham's numbers since Tingler removed him from the leadoff spot?
I wonder whose idea it was to put Tommy there in the first place, and whose idea it was to move him off it?
#17 · August 3, 2021, 7:29 pm
He does like that spot.
Tonight with his 5th lead off home run of the season.
Imagine how many he would have if he hit there every day?
#18 · August 3, 2021, 8:01 pm
I hope the powers to be just leave them there. He does seem comfortable.
#19 · August 4, 2021, 5:36 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on July 26, 2021, 10:20 amA lot of good free agent bats going to be available.
I just don't see us spending $10+ mil for the DH next season.
I just don't see us straddling the luxury tax line to start next season.....but I never thought we would this season either.
The luxury tax line will most likely go up a fair amount next year in the new bargaining agreement