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What has to happen for us to be competitive in 2020?
#1 · December 29, 2019, 11:59 am
Of course many things have to happen for us to be much better.....but pick a couple things.
By “competitive” I’m saying .500 or better.That’s a big improvement from last season.
I’ll start by saying we need 150 innings from Richards and Lamet.I’m confident in what we will get from Paddack,Lucchesi and to some extent Davies.But can these other two stay healthy and effective for the full season?
We also need the Teams OBP to be .320 or above.Last season we were at .308 and if you sort by OBP it’s almost an exact “Playoff teams at the top....bad teams at the bottom” list.
I think this was Prellers’ main objective with the additions......and subtractions he’s made so far this offseason offensively.
#2 · December 29, 2019, 12:51 pm
If .500 or better is the threshold ... think they may be there. A key for me is Tatis. I don't expect him to perform a full season at his 1st half 2019 levels as other teams learn how to pitch to him but where he ends up offensively will have a lot to do with the level of wins.
One of those technical factors is how BAD we can see SF and COLO teams ... teams the Padres play a lot and could (should) rack up a lot of wins. Then add maybe some pitching issues in LAD and wherever AZ settles ... more wins there. Think Padres are better ... not so sure about the Division competition and they are the teams they have to beat to be successful.
Actually, have any of the NL teams really improved so far this winter? Lot of FA talent has moved to the AL from the NL. A scenario for an improved Padre team scoring more win against a series of diminished teams.
#3 · December 29, 2019, 1:23 pm
The Division doesn’t worry me beyond the Dodgers.
The D Backs added Madbum but their rotation still isn’t great and I doubt Ketel Marte has another career season like 19’.
The Rockies may trade their best player and Blackmon is in decline....plus still no pitching.
SF well...they just aren’t any good.
About your point on Tatis.....I can see pitchers trying to stay away from him....but with Pham and Machado behind him all he has to do is stay patient and take the walks.
If he can keep his OBP over .375 we will be fine......and if those guys do damage they will have to start pitching to FTJ.
#4 · December 29, 2019, 1:24 pm
Wil Myers is of course another huge question.
If he gets 450+ AB’s we will be .500.
Because if he isn’t performing he won’t play enough to get those AB’s.
#5 · December 29, 2019, 1:34 pm
I like you guys' points above. I would also add they need better production from Hosmer. Sounds obvious, but if he steps up the lineup is a lot longer and carrying Hedges easier.
#6 · December 29, 2019, 2:21 pm
Quote from Commie on December 29, 2019, 1:34 pmI like you guys' points above. I would also add they need better production from Hosmer. Sounds obvious, but if he steps up the lineup is a lot longer and carrying Hedges easier.
Same can be said of Machado ... at PETCO. He was fine AWAY but was actually below average at PETCO. Big money men ... Machado, Hosmer, and Myers ... all need to perform better.
#7 · December 29, 2019, 2:23 pm
You guys touched on the “big ifs”. Tatis health being the number 1 thing. It’s not just his immense talent and production, but when he plays the Padres energy level is special. When he was out of the lineup they seemed to lack enthusiasm and intensity.
The second “big if” is Lamet/Richards innings. Richards has been an ace and Lamet has shown ace stuff. Can they give us 150 innings and be reliable? If Tatis stays healthy and these two give us the innings I think the Padres can compete for a WC.
My third big if is the young/inconsistent, but talented OFs. Margot, Grisham, Cordero, Myers, Naylor. Can one of those guys step up and be that everyday OF? I think AJP has covered himself pretty well if this group is the opening day OF. Pham in left and some balance in LH/RH options for platoons. The Dodgers thought Bellinger would be a platoon/splits guy until he broke out as a star. I’m not saying we have any future stars with that group, but can one of them step up, produce and be a guy Tingler can pencil in everyday. That would be huge. Margot just being even decent against RHP could do that. If Cordero could stay healthy, he has the raw talent. If Myers could stay locked in and focused, we know he’s a gifted guy with all the tools to be an everyday OF. Grisham has the intriguing power/speed/OBP combo.
#8 · December 29, 2019, 2:26 pm
Consistency.....most notably, from our new manager.
Plug your best 8 in, 5 starters, figure out your relief rotation....then LET THEM PLAY!
Black and Green( hey, together they make a good chocolate bar!) destroyed many teams by pulling guys in and out, and up and down, the lineup.
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TatisJr
#9 · December 29, 2019, 2:33 pm
I have to agree with fenn68 here. Our team is already much improved. Our rotation was middle of the pack last year. We replaced Margevicius and Strahm(both terrible) in our rotation with full years of Richards and Lamet. Huge improvement. Replaced Lauer with Davies. Improvement. Paddock and Quantrill will have a year of experience under their belts and no innings restrictions. Improvement. Bullpen? Improved. Defense last year? Average to plus and should be again this year. Offense? We lost a lot of HR with losing Reyes and Renfroe, but we replaced it with a lot of OBP in Pham, Grisham. Hedges to Mejia? Huge offensive plus. We are better everywhere.
But overall, the main thing I noticed from last year? When Tatis was playing, our offense and defense were clicking and we were competing for the playoffs. When he wasn’t, we weren’t.
#10 · December 29, 2019, 3:18 pm
You all nailed some really good points. I just would emphasize the bullpen -- which I think is vastly improved on paper. The bullpen killed us last year. To me, Baez (may be moving to SP), Strahm, Pom, Munoz, and Yates is really strong. Bednar, Wingenter, Guerrra, and Reyes and others will have opportunities to contribute or establish a role.
Better ABs. Strikeout rate was way too high. We allowed too many pitchers to pitch comfortably late into games. Need runners on base. Pham and Grisham (wouldnt mind grabbing Shogo) should improve this. In addition, addition by subtraction at 2B and C is likely to help.