Quote from Brian Connelly on December 9, 2019, 11:51 am

Madfriars, Any ETA on "next up" with a Top 30 list... is it Kevin?  Heavy revisions due to trades?  🙂

Quote from LynchMob on January 3, 2020, 8:00 pm

Baseball America taking stock of the Padres...

Here's how we project their lineup in 2023, with their 2023 age in parentheses.

Catcher: Francisco Mejia (27)
First Base: Eric Hosmer (33)
Second Base: CJ Abrams (22)
Third Base: Manny Machado (30)
Shortstop: Fernando Tatis Jr. (24)
Left Field: Trent Grisham (26)
Center Field: Taylor Trammell (25)
Right Field: Josh Naylor (26)

No. 1 Starter: MacKenzie Gore (24)
No. 2 Starter: Luis Patino (23)
No. 3 Starter: Chris Paddack (27)
No. 4 Starter: Dinelson Lamet (30)
No. 5 Starter: Joey Lucchesi (30)
Closer: Andres Munoz (24)

Quote from BoosterSD on January 3, 2020, 8:45 pm

Quote from LynchMob on January 3, 2020, 8:00 pm

Baseball America taking stock of the Padres...

Here's how we project their lineup in 2023, with their 2023 age in parentheses.

Right Field: Josh Naylor (26)

No. 5 Starter: Joey Lucchesi (30)

If AJP can not do better than Naylor in the OF, let alone RF. And if Luchessi is still our #5 starter by the end of the 2021 season, then AJP needs to be fired at the end of the 2021 season.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 3, 2020, 9:04 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on January 3, 2020, 8:45 pm

Quote from LynchMob on January 3, 2020, 8:00 pm

Baseball America taking stock of the Padres...

Here's how we project their lineup in 2023, with their 2023 age in parentheses.

Right Field: Josh Naylor (26)

No. 5 Starter: Joey Lucchesi (30)

If AJP can not do better than Naylor in the OF, let alone RF. And if Luchessi is still our #5 starter by the end of the 2021 season, then AJP needs to be fired at the end of the 2021 season.

1.6 WAR from your #5 starter (even if he stays as he is) is terrific.. He would be Nats and Houston's 4th/5th .. In 2019...

Naylor projected at .778 OPS in 2020 at the moment which is > Myers career avg.. He projects as an eventual .850 OPS OF (All Star level stick) .. Yeah he is more of a DH/OF type.. But 2023 .. NL DH a very good possibility .. That said I think we get a better overall OFer by then (Ona? Cola? Head? Mears? Ornelas?

Quote from JasonE135 on January 3, 2020, 10:51 pm

Quote from LynchMob on January 3, 2020, 8:00 pm

Baseball America taking stock of the Padres...

Here's how we project their lineup in 2023, with their 2023 age in parentheses.

Catcher: Francisco Mejia (27)
First Base: Eric Hosmer (33)
Second Base: CJ Abrams (22)
Third Base: Manny Machado (30)
Shortstop: Fernando Tatis Jr. (24)
Left Field: Trent Grisham (26)
Center Field: Taylor Trammell (25)
Right Field: Josh Naylor (26)

No. 1 Starter: MacKenzie Gore (24)
No. 2 Starter: Luis Patino (23)
No. 3 Starter: Chris Paddack (27)
No. 4 Starter: Dinelson Lamet (30)
No. 5 Starter: Joey Lucchesi (30)
Closer: Andres Munoz (24)

This is a guess from 4 years out. Of course reality will end up being far different. The infield seems pretty well set for 2023, with only 2B available. That could be Abrams or it could be someone else. We have tons of middle infielders. Abrams may end up in CF. Within 4 years I bet some Corner OF in our system will pop. If not, a big bat corner OF in a trade or signing looks likely.

Besides that, how can this guy put Paddack at #3? He is already pitching like an ACE. He had a 3.33 ERA his rookie season. I see him as very likely to put up at least 1 season with an ERA under 3.00, if not several. Especially if he can add/improve a 3rd pitch. Whatever. Really, any of those top 4 starters could become the ACE of this staff. #5 will likely be a running competition between Quantrill, Morejon, Baez, Bolanos etc., etc..

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 4, 2020, 3:53 am

Quote from JasonE135 on January 3, 2020, 10:51 pm

Quote from LynchMob on January 3, 2020, 8:00 pm

Baseball America taking stock of the Padres...

Here's how we project their lineup in 2023, with their 2023 age in parentheses.

Catcher: Francisco Mejia (27)
First Base: Eric Hosmer (33)
Second Base: CJ Abrams (22)
Third Base: Manny Machado (30)
Shortstop: Fernando Tatis Jr. (24)
Left Field: Trent Grisham (26)
Center Field: Taylor Trammell (25)
Right Field: Josh Naylor (26)

No. 1 Starter: MacKenzie Gore (24)
No. 2 Starter: Luis Patino (23)
No. 3 Starter: Chris Paddack (27)
No. 4 Starter: Dinelson Lamet (30)
No. 5 Starter: Joey Lucchesi (30)
Closer: Andres Munoz (24)

This is a guess from 4 years out. Of course reality will end up being far different. The infield seems pretty well set for 2023, with only 2B available. That could be Abrams or it could be someone else. We have tons of middle infielders. Abrams may end up in CF. Within 4 years I bet some Corner OF in our system will pop. If not, a big bat corner OF in a trade or signing looks likely.

Besides that, how can this guy put Paddack at #3? He is already pitching like an ACE. He had a 3.33 ERA his rookie season. I see him as very likely to put up at least 1 season with an ERA under 3.00, if not several. Especially if he can add/improve a 3rd pitch. Whatever. Really, any of those top 4 starters could become the ACE of this staff. #5 will likely be a running competition between Quantrill, Morejon, Baez, Bolanos etc., etc..

If we have those 4 running comp for #5 then AJP is an idiot.. 3 of those (include Joey) on that list need to be traded at some point between now and a yr from now.. To upgrade elsewhere

Quote from fenn68 on January 4, 2020, 5:21 am

Sort of a no win fun exercise ... never correct.

Lucchesi will be bypassed by someone currently in the system well before 2023 (which would be his last control year). 2023 is four years out ... a lot of time for minor league development for any current full season SP (and a hot shot short season arm). Which one ... have a few years to find out.

For Naylor to hold the RF spot he would have to be a great hitter ... he will not be that guy. Not that confident that a current in-system RF prospect emerge (but there is hope).  IF Myers holds that slot 2020-2022, time for someone to emerge and the unknown of a trade / FA is very likely.

With some of the better prospects being Miller, Arias, Marcano ... all middle INF ... could ease the shift of Abrams to the OF (especially if one of Grisham or Trammell underperform) but also a RF possibility. Then (I know this is heresy) in four years it may be time for the ever maturing / growing Tatis to move to RF in favor of the elite fielding Arias (if he can hit) or the strong armed Arias emerges in RF.

Or will it be the Padres #1 pick in 2020 bumping Lucchesi or Naylor?

Quote from TatisJr on January 4, 2020, 7:55 am

Naylor is going to be a very good ML hitter. I  don’t think he will be on the Padres in 2023 due to his defensive issues in the OF. His fit doesn’t align with with AJP is trying to build here.  Perhaps if the DH comes to the NL he will be on the Padres still, but the kid is going to be a tough out for years to come. I think he will be better than Kyle Schwarber as a hitter. People complain here that he hasn’t hit for much power and that’s true, but I think he will tap into it the older he gets. I personally saw him CRUSH a ball in Goodyear vs the Reds that was one of the hardest hit balls I’ve ever seen live. Vlad Guerrero hit the hardest ball I’ve seen live and I’d say that Naylor shot was the closest thing I’ve seen to it. If/when Naylor is dealt the return better not be too light, because he will go on to hit wherever he ends up.

Quote from fenn68 on January 4, 2020, 8:59 am

Since 2023 is a long way off ... 1B may be an open slot. 50/50 Hosmer is gone either by: 1) opt out after 2022 when his salary drops to $13MM per for the next three years; or 2) Padres trade him after the 2021 season (or during 2022) before his 5-10 rights kick in an he can block any trade in his final three years.

Basically if he is really good in 2020-22, Hosmer will opt out. If he is just OK, Padres will be motivate to move on to clear 1B for ... Naylor? Campusano? Hunt? Mejia? and avoid the 10-5 restrictions (assuming they survive in the same way after the new CBA.

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Also, I would put a 10-20% chance of the Padres dealing Machado before 2023 IF the Padres fail to make the payoffs before then. (think of COLO potentially dealing Arenado after just signing him). Machado has the opt out after 2023 which coincides with earning 5-10 rights blocking future trades ... getting a very good Machado before the 2023 season becomes a $180MM/6 year deal which by then will seem not that bad for a contender. Doesn't have a no trade clause as I understand. (Tatis to 3B and Arias to SS?)

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If in 2022 the Padres fail to make the playoffs ... the new lead owner (Fowler will be gone and maybe Siedler), the new GM, the new manager will be considering an out with the underperforming old and go with the upside future for a mini re-image since still a lot of talent should be in place.