Forum
Forum Navigation
Top ## List
#111 · February 23, 2021, 1:04 pm
Here is a Comparison of the Padres Farm system from: Start of 2020 offseason to Start of 2021 offseason.
Jan 2020 Top 100 prospects: 6 (7)
Gore (#4), Patino (#24), Abrams (#28) Campusano (#55), Trammell (#59), X. Edwards (#78), Morejon (#102)
These were consensus average rank in top 100 MLB by outlets & individuals who did rankings. Padres had 7 of the top 100+ prospects in MLB at end of the 2019 season, 6 entering the 2020 season.
Jan 2020 “Tier 1” prospects: 19 (21)
Names above plus: G. Arias, Baez, Weathers, J. Cantillo, O. Miller, Head, Olivares, Lawson, A. Munoz, Bolanos, Potts, Marcano, Cronenworth
Again, by consensus, there was a clear “gap” between Jake (who was obviously underrated) and the next prospect (Tirso Ornelas). Jorge Mateo was clearly ranked in this group also, but wasn’t added until June, so entering 2020 season, Padres had 20 “Tier 1” prospects.
Jan 2020 System Depth: Elite - Estimated #1 in MLB
There was strong consensus on the top 25 prospects. Names above plus: Ornelas, J. Rosario, B. Hunt, Javy Guerra, & Mears. Many lists had all 25 of these players on their top 30 lists, leaving only 5 “spots” for obviously high level talent prospects such as: Preciado, Mena, Espinoza, etc, etc to even get “named” for consideration. I subjectively thought the Padres’ Farm before the trades out ran something like 70-80 “legitimate” MLB prospects deep… clearly #1 depth wise in MLB.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan 2021 Top 100 prospects: 7 (8)
Gore, Abrams, Patino, Campusano, Ha-Seong Kim, Morejon, Weathers, Robert Hassell III
Despite trading away 2 top 100 prospects in Patino & Trammell (midseason), the Padres have backfilled those 2 spots with Hassell & the signing of Kim. These are MY assessments. The first 4 are obvious consensus top 100 or maybe top 50. Kim by any measure/projection is top 100. Morejon was #102 by an average of outlets last year & showed enough last year to improve on that. He has only pitched 17 games / 32.1 IP in MLB; that’s getting close, but not enough to “graduate” in my book. Weathers dramatic velocity increase, improved conditioning, raves from alt site, and playoff cameo easily put him (back) in top 100. I personally might not put Hassell top 100 (yet), but he is getting ranked there by consensus, and it is logical for the 8th overall draft pick.
So can argue that: by sheer # of top 100 prospects, Padres are actually BETTER at the top than last year’s system. This continued strength at the top will probably have the Padres system overall still in the top 5-8 of MLB despite the massive amount of talent that’s been traded away. But Kim & Morejon will graduate in 2021, and: Gore, Campusano, & Weathers could. Very few remaining prospects with a chance of rising into top 100, and we draft too low now to add any more. International signees the most likely way to add here, but would have to be in top 3-5 in class to be this high within a year of signing; Pads more likely to spread that hard capped $ around like last 2 years.
Jan 2021 “Tier 1” prospects: 11 (15)
Names above plus: Cole Wilcox, Head, Hunt, Marcano, Justin Lange, Baez, Lawson
Again, these are all just my rankings. In 2021 I have Tirso Ornelas where he was by consensus last year; as the highest ranked “Tier 2” prospect. Blake Hunt is the only prospect who ‘rose’ from “Tier 2” up into this group. Jorge Mateo (27 MLB PA does NOT graduate) is the only prospect who fell from Tier 1 last year to Tier 2 this year.
This group was thinned out last year by the graduation of Cronenworth but mostly the trades of: Arias, Cantillo, O. Miller, Olivares, Munoz, Bolanos & Potts. J. Rosario just missed at #22 consensus just behind Ornelas.
I had only Cole Wilcox maybe in MLB’s top 200, but others had Head there too, and there was talk of Hunt rising dramatically. With those 3 all gone now, there is a big talent dropoff here after my Top 7. This group after the top 100 has shrunk from 14 guys in our system (included Mateo) on opening day last year, down to just 4; with Baez just a few appearances / IP away from graduating.
I had the 4 prospects traded in the Darvish deal (Reginald Preciado, Ismael Mena, Owen Caissie, & Yeison Santana) all in the #20-25 range before all trades, but some outlets were higher on some or even all of them (notably MLB.com) ….
Jan 2021 System Depth: Below Average – Estimated #18 in MLB
…so it’s safe to say that much of the top of 2019’s Tier “2A” has also been traded away. There is “hidden” talent in the Padres system like Espinoza & Mason Thompson, and our depth WAS so elite, that we are not bringing up the rear. But I strongly disagree with the refrain around baseball - including Pads themselves - that we still have one of MLB’s “deepest” systems. It’s simply not true. MLB.com hasn’t updated 2021 rankings yet, but we have only 1-2 “50” grade, and 2 “45” grade prospects. That is worse than majority of teams.
I feel Preller has correctly calculated that most prospects outside MLB top 100 are going to have limited impact on an elite MLB team. The Padres “arrived” a year early, so he has dealt freely from what was the largest in MLB tier 1, but outside of the top 100 (except: ‘Trammell+ for Nola" & ‘Patino+ for Snell’) to get “now” MLB impact players to position the team for a 3 year run. It’s as simple as that.
#112 · February 23, 2021, 1:20 pm
Here’s my own Padres prospect rankings. Mine will differ from many for 2 reasons: 1) I strongly believe that actual MLB playing time, not service time, is the only logical metric to “graduate” from prospect status. 2) I’m including all the prospects we traded. I feel it’s important to do this to have a relative sense of a prospect’s “actual” ranking a month before 10 guys from the list were dealt!
Top 100 MLB: 1) Gore-SP, 2) Abrams-SS, 3) Patino-SP, 4) Ha-Seong Kim-SS/2B, 5) Campusano-C, 6) Morejon – SP, 7) Ryan Weathers – SP, 8) Robert Hassell III – OF
I don’t pretend to know enough to do a top 100 list for MLB. But I would have Gore Top 10, Abrams & Patino Top 50, and the rest 51-100. Abrams likely top 25, Kim & Campusano both close to 50; maybe 50-60. Hassell I’d have 90-100.
I’ve always been a little lower on Patino, but he’s clearly at least top 50. The STRONG Zips projection & Madfriars consensus enough input for me to put Kim > Campusano. Morejon’s at 32+ IP, needs to hit 45 range to graduate. Need to see Hassell play in actual games to put him any higher.
Remainder of “Tier 1”: 9) Cole Wilcox-SP, 10) Hudson Head-OF, 11) Blake Hunt-C, 12) Tucupita Marcano-2B, 13) Justin Lange-SP, 14) Michel Baez-SP/RP, 15) Reggie Lawson-SP
I would have had Wilcox just inside MLB top 200, Head just outside. Both have top 100 potential. Sounds like Hunt’s stock is rising fast. Marcano next guy remaining in system after top 7 is nowhere near the top 200; IMO his power limitations just preclude it. Jake Cronenworth is a good comp for him. Baez is extremely close to graduating; 3 MLB appearances/3-4 IP in 2021 enough.
“Tier 2”: 16) Tirso Ornelas-OF, 17) Jorge Ona-OF, 18) Jorge Mateo-OF/INF, 19) Owen Caissie-OF, 20) Joshua Mears-OF, 21) Reginald Preciado-SS, 22) Ismael Mena-OF, 23) Anderson Espinoza-RP/SP, 24) Mason Thompson-RP/SP, 25) Javy Guerra-RP 26) Yeison Santana-SS
Ornelas best demonstrates how different the Farm looks now vs. 16 months ago. I ranked him #27 then (consensus was #21). Now, despite a BAD 2019, not being at the Alt site in ‘20 , and being neither protected nor chosen in Rule 5 he’s #16… but with 4 prospects above him traded, he’s effectively #12; up 15 spots. Mateo’s 27 MLB PA & Guerra’s 22 IP keep them as prospects. As discussed elsewhere, Pads might be better off with younger "#18 &/or #25" prospects (via trade) than these out of options guys having to make MLB roster on an elite team. #19,21,22, & 26 all the heart of the Darvish trade. Others rating them “higher” mostly by excluding others traded earlier. I have Espinoza & Thompson here b/c although on RP tracks now, at least a chance they could eventually go back to SP.
“Tier 3”: 27) Justin Lopez-INF, 28) Brian O’Grady-OF, 29) Jake Nix-SP, 30) Ivan Castillo-2B, 31) Esteury Ruiz-2B/LF, 32) Jagger Haynes-SP, 33) Brayan Medina-SP, 34) Pedro Avila-SP, 35) Eguy Rosario-2B, 36) Lake Bachar-SP, 37) Jordy Barley-SS, 38) Luarbert Arias-SP, 39) Osvaldo Hernandez-SP. 40) Omar Cruz-SP, 41) Efrain Contreras-SP, 42) David Bednar-RP, 43) Steven Wilson-RP, 44) Reiss Knehr-SP, 45) Victor Acosta-SS
With SO many players out via trade in the last year, the only Consensus top 50 (!) prospect remaining in the Padres system who did not make my list this year is 3B Sean Guilibe (was Honorable mention literally at #50).
Pads appear high on O’Grady whose 51 MLB PA are only halfway to graduating (despite being 28 y.o.), and so am I. Hoping he can be an Alex Dickerson LH bat with a Chris Denorfia glove!
I did a deep dive on the AAA type SP’s in system and thought there was a clear pecking order between each of, in order: Avila, Nix, Bachar, and (unranked) Brett Kennedy…. Until the UT article about Nix came out. There is no way -even a 25 y.o. who’s missed 2 years – a potential SP with the stuff/pitches described can be ranked outside the top 30 even pre-trades, so I bumped Nix up 5 spots. Avila’s K/9 #’s better than Nix’s, but he only has 3 GS /12 IP @ AA due to the injury that ultimately led to TJ surg. Needs to return to AA. Bachar did significantly improve in 2 nearly full seasons at AA from 2018 (San Antonio-P park) to 2019 (Amarillo-hitter’s park). But still meh #’s, 25 y.o, unclaimed in Rule 5, and not in ST. Just buried on the depth chart. Same for Kennedy who somehow managed to go 10-0 in AAA in 2018, but his stuff simply did not play at all that year in MLB, and like Nix he now hasn’t pitched in 2 years.
I ranked Ivan Castillo higher than Esteury Ruiz last year, so no reason to not do so again. Utterly blocked by Kim & Profar, but could get the call to MLB as a fill-in if an INF goes on IL during the season. Ruiz is a bat first/only prospect… who didn’t hit in a hitter’s league… in 2019. Rosario might be a better prospect.
The rest are mostly SP that are either completely green or lack projection. Some others were much higher on Contreras who just had TJ surgery in November, and Cruz who was traded to Pittsburgh with Bednar (& others) for Joe Musgrove. Knehr had a good Fall Instructional league& is a riser. Acosta was the highest ranked International signee this year @ #19 (MLB.com), the exact same as Medina (who also was good at Instructs) last year.
MrPadre19 and LynchMob have reacted to this post.
MrPadre19LynchMob
#113 · February 24, 2021, 8:17 am
With no Minors season, only these players moved significantly upon either MLB play or reports from Alt Site & /or Fall Instuctional League:
UP: Abrams, Campusano, Morejon, Weathers, Hunt, Marcano, Ona, M. Thompson, Knehr
Abrams surpassed Patino for #2 in system. Team clearly high on Campusano pushing others out in trade. Morejon & Weathers climb back up into top 100 MLB prospects with stuff shown. Hunt maybe the fastest rising prospect based on reports until he was traded. M. Thompson & Knehr got on radar from strong Instructs.
DOWN: "Gore", Patino, Baez, Mateo, Guerra, Bednar
Gore drops a few spots on MLB top 100 prospect list due to early Summer ST delivery issues; but not enough to drop him from #1 in system. Patino still strong, but passed by Abrams. Still has RP & size/frame risk in my book. Others all slid based on (for some) limited MLB performance.
#114 · March 19, 2021, 11:07 am
#115 · May 14, 2021, 4:44 pm
#116 · August 25, 2021, 11:48 am
Here's where all 30 farm systems rank
Padres #17
#117 · August 25, 2021, 1:23 pm
That's further than I expected.....but probably accurate.
I'm hoping Merrill,Mears,Wood,Acosta and Angeles push this ranking into the top 10 next year.
#118 · August 25, 2021, 3:51 pm
Quote from LynchMob on August 25, 2021, 11:48 amHere's where all 30 farm systems rank
Padres #17
Not sure what criteria is used but I call bollocks!
How in the world are the Duds ranked 16? Certainly they're top 3?
Proof is in the pudding- they'll either bring up someone next year who helps them to another divisional crown, or trade a handful of prospects for one of the games true superstars... Mike Trout perhaps?
Until they stop winning with home grown players, Duds are the top farm team in baaeball.
#119 · August 25, 2021, 4:22 pm
Opens the question as to what is a “good farm system”. Is it better with 5-6 projected elite prospects then followed by low probability guys or is it better with fewer elite prospects but followed by some medium probability guys that might surprise?
Since reality has actually few prospects actually develop to that elite level … but they are key impact pieces … have the top heavy system might meet the ML objectives more. Most of those non-elite prospects fade away or just become fringe ML pieces. So might value “top heavy” systems. However, since organizations such as the Padres focus on very young signings (as is the current system) it is really impossible to make the quality call on any of them … yet.
So, a nice exercise in ranking the systems but really not much substance.
#120 · November 24, 2021, 2:30 pm