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Team Eval after 20% of Season
#1 · May 8, 2018, 8:37 am
So just after 1/5th of the season, how is the team doing? Obviously the wins and losses are what they are, and most on here did not expect a play off run. So how are we doing building towards the future.
Offense
BA - NL rank - 12th. Pertinent items to keep in mind. Headley starting at 3B in the beginning of the season didnt help. Hosmer had another slow start, same as last season, however he is in the NL for the first time. Hopefully Villanueva can sustain and Pirela seams to be in a recent slide. Galvis started hot, but is coming back to reality. And of course Renfroe and Hedges are both at .200, and not helping the cause.
OBP - NL rank - 14th. Still suck at this, Matt Stairs will be looking over his shoulder by mid August, as it his fault he cant prevent SD hitters swinging at sliders in the dirt. Although some of the younger additions are helping and Urias is a phone call away.
SLG - NL rank - 13th. Still struggling here as well. Doesnt help that Hosmer got off to a slow start, and that Myers has been hurt. Villanueva and Cordero have helped. What shocks me most about this team, is even though we have some speedsters on the team, we rank 10th in doubles. With our home park and speed, we should hit more doubles. We are 3rd in triples, but only recently have we improved in this area, with Margot and Jank hitting 4 in the last 10 days. Prior to that we stunk there too.
Stolen Bases - NL rank - Tied 7th. While we have stolen 17 bases, we have been caught 10 times, not a great success ratio. Galvis is the biggest culprit being cuaght 4 times for 1 SB. Maybe he should just stay put?
Questions,
Can Villaneuva and Cordero keep going?
Can Pirela get back to being closer to .280, and if he does, where does he play?
How long until Urias gets the call?
What happens in the OF when all of Myers, Renfroe, Cordero, and Jank are all healthy?
#2 · May 8, 2018, 8:37 am
Pitching up next.
#3 · May 8, 2018, 3:00 pm
We make too many errors for a team that doesn't produce a lot of runs.
Green has to get after these guys to play defense!
I thought with Hosmer, Hedges, Galvis, Margot, we'd be a solid defensive unit. Guess I was wrong.
#4 · May 8, 2018, 4:17 pm
I agree totally, they are 5th in errors. Although 6 of the errors are Villanueva's. Another sad fact is they have given up the 2nd most stolen bases in the NL. You would think with Hedges we wouldnt give up that many stolen bases. And frankly, if he is not cutting down base stealers, where is his value?
#5 · May 8, 2018, 9:57 pm
I think 20% into the season we are in a worse position organizationally than we were a year ago.
We traded away De Los Santos for nothing. We have $40m committed to 1B for 2019 while likely blocking a top 50-100 prospect at the position. We lost a year of development on Lamet. Perdomo has continued to look like dogshit. We're taking 1500 at bats away from the first wave this year.
That's basically doing everything wrong for a low payroll org.
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#6 · May 9, 2018, 1:27 pm
My question is how long do they stick with Andy Green ?
#7 · May 9, 2018, 5:14 pm
Except for Starting Pitching ... the stats guys COULD argue this team is better than 2017 by comparing March/April 2017 to 2018. Consider:
BA: 2018 .230 (26th) vs. 2017 .223 (27th) ... IMPROVED
OBP: 2018 .301 (28th) vs. 2017 .284 (29th) ... IMPROVED
SLG: 2018 .369 (27th) vs. 2017 .382 (23rd) ... WORSE
wRC+: 2018 89 (23rd) vs. 2017 76 (27th) ... IMPROVED
Relief Pitchers:
ERA: 2018 3.45 (10th) vs. 2017 4.87 (24th) ... MAJOR IMPROVEMENT
WAR: 2018 1.5 (4th) vs. 2017 0.0 (26th) .... MAJOR IMPROVEMENT
Starting Pitchers:
ERA: 2018 5.33 (26th) vs. 2017 4.51 (25th) ... MUCH WORSE BUT ONLY DOWN ONE IN RANKING
WAR: 2018 1.0 (23rd) vs. 2017 1.3 (25th) ... WORSE NUMBER BUT ACTUALLY UP TWO IN RANKING
Of course almost everything is a version of bad but just not truly worse than the start of 2017 ... except for SP.
#8 · May 9, 2018, 5:42 pm
I think if it was just the starting pitching it would be easier to accept.
I think we all expected it to be bad......very bad.
At this point the only silver lining I can see in the rotation is Lucchesi and Lauer getting some ML experience.
Who's next.....Kennedy?
Is he even on the 40 man?
#9 · May 10, 2018, 8:08 am
Quote from David Nevin on May 9, 2018, 5:42 pmI think if it was just the starting pitching it would be easier to accept.
I think we all expected it to be bad......very bad.
At this point the only silver lining I can see in the rotation is Lucchesi and Lauer getting some ML experience.
Who's next.....Kennedy?
Is he even on the 40 man?
Kennedy is not on the 40 man ... but that did not stop the adds of Lucchesi or Lauer ... who likely will be around for some time even if performance tapers off. Same for Ross. Lyles now up (but I expect little from him) should get a couple of starts baring truly embarrassing performances (consider the tolerance with Mitchell). He likely is the next starter bumped.
I am sure few want to her it but Perdomo (on the 40 man) might get the first look if his next couple of AAA starts mirror his first three:
23 innings (that is 7.2 average innings per start ... so going deep which the Padres could use)
.188 BAA quite low for PCL
0.87 WHIP showing some command along with the low BAA
Those stats are better than Kennedy or Lockett's ... it will be interesting to see what the Padre development team determines is best strategy ... take that "look" at the ML level of Kennedy (not a ranked prospect) and give Perdomo more development time in AAA OR conclude Perdomo (as the upside prospect still) is better suited to return to the ML. On a bad Padres team ... either option is OK.
P.S. ... although I think this will not happen soon ... Richard has got to be "on the bubble" next if Quantrill (or anyone else deserves a promotion). He has significantly regressed from a mediocre 2017 (but does give innings to help preserve a good bullpen). Heard a comment that Balsley has worked to modify his delivery adjusting his arm angle higher ... apparently not working yet.
#10 · May 10, 2018, 8:23 am
Been gone for a bit but noted Myers, Renfroe, and Hedges are still DL ... any word on estimated return?
Partly because of the injuries and partly because of performance ... it seems that going forward Green has stabilized his line-up (not order but the players). So far in May he has trotted out virtually every game:
Ellis/Lopez, Hosmer, Pirela, Galvis, Villanueva, Cordero, Margot, Jankowski.
Looking like Asuaje is nearing a return to AAA (performance) giving the short term 2B to Pirela but eventually clearing the way for Urias. A demotion of Asuaje (2B only) should signal the return of Spangenberg (more versatile) plus after the teasing April from Villanueva he as been a total bust in May and Spangenberg could step in vs. RHP.
With the potential SP changes, the second 20% of the season COULD be better (not good mind you but better) since I do have some faith that Margot will rebound, Pirela will be better than Asuaje at 2B (offensively), Cordero will hold his own in LF, and Myers return to RF will and some more pop to the line-up as balance with Hosmer.