Quote from fenn68 on March 16, 2026, 11:29 am

Similar debate on the 3 bench spots (I concede the starting 8 plus Andujar and Campusano).

OF: Johnson incumbent (out of options) ... good 2025. Non-roster candidates: Bowen (strong ST, provides more power, hitting ML pitching a question even with a strong ST); Rodriguez (nice ST, been a fringe ML player for a few seasons); Taylor (excellent early ST but big fade, top line speed and can play INF / OF). PREDICTION: Johnson retains his seat.

INF: (until SONG returns) no real incumbent. McCoy (been up in 2025 but can't hit, plus defender who has struggle defensively in ST ... on roster); Solak (2B/LF with a very strong ST coming off a strong AAA season in 2025 but in the ML not good fore a few years). PREDICTION: neither makes the opening day roster.

DH/1B: (Sheets / Andujar in). Castellanos (not a great ST but OK with a .732 OPS coming off a "slightly below average" 2025 ... on the roster); France (can be used as back-up 2B, good ST with .844 OPS after a "slightly below average" 2025 plus adds a plus defense option at 1B); Miranda (excellent ST with a 1.010 OPS but been a while since effective in the ML). PREDICTION: both Castellanos and France make the roster ... but one gets eliminated when Song returns. (note Song has returned to swing the bat so still unsure how conservative the Padres will be before activating him).

Quote from BoosterSD on March 16, 2026, 12:13 pm

Im not sure of the BP situation in TOR; however, reading the other day how they are almost 8 or 9 deep on the 40 man for the starting rotation, so someone (Lauer) may have to start in the BP. He has said to have a preference to stay in the rotation. Could something be worked out in a trade with TOR? Lauer for Matsui or Peralta and a MiL of the lower level?

Quote from Jeremy Hill on March 16, 2026, 12:24 pm

Quote from fenn68 on March 16, 2026, 11:11 am

Beginning to looks as though Musgrove will start the season on the IL resulting in a need for 2 SP (or 1 with off days plus a bulk inning RP).

Padres (or the media) seem to be hyping the upside of Marquez and settling in on Buehler and Marquez and the candidates to make the roster. Looking (more realistically) at the options ... not so sure we don't see the Padres throw a curve. Consider the options first in ST then in 2025 (WHIP / innings):

0.86 / 11.2 ... 1.19 / 43.0 .... Hart (L)

1.35 / 6.2 ... 1.52 / 126.0 ... Buehler / non-roster

1.68 / 10.2 ... 1.32 / 135.2 ... Sears (L)

1.84 / 10.1 ... 1.57 / 7.0 ... Gillaspie / non-roster

2.10 / 6.2 ... 1.71 / 126.1 ... Marquez

2.84 / 6.1 ... 2.47 / 5.2 ... McKenzie / non-roster

I know the small sample size in ST plus the unknown of how each pitcher's back lot work is viewed BUT combining ST and 2025 would eliminate McKenzie and Gillaspie out of hand. I really have a tough time with the promotion of Marquez since he is not pitching well and really had not be even "average" in quite a few years.

I understand Matsui is again throwing but a good chance he starts on the IL (extended ST) give Hart a window for the LHP long relief.

By elimination that ... for me ... would have Buehler and Sears as SP (until Musgrove / Canning arrive). I do like the innings pitched in 2025 ... and with Musgrove already saying he may need time off during the season ... have arms that have a proven history of innings has value. On a WHIP basis they were better than the others.

Making this a bit messy is that Adam is scheduled to pitch in a ST soon and could be ready for opening day jamming another RP into the mix and ... barring an injury ... could lead to a trade and Marinaccio (pitching for Team Italy) being the odd man out (considering he is out of options.)

Should have some resolution in a week as camp breaks.

 

Acee wrote an article the other day that said that with Musgrove likely to begin the year on the IL they're considering carrying an extra reliever to start the year. He seems to think that Buehler has done enough to earn a spot in the rotation, but with the rest of the candidates failing to impress they could lean into a strength and utilize bullpen days early rather than give a spot to a starter they have less faith in.

He also says that they're holding onto some hope that when the new ownership situation is settled they could gain a bit more financial flexibility that would allow them to make a move.

Quote from fenn68 on March 16, 2026, 1:36 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on March 16, 2026, 12:13 pm

Im not sure of the BP situation in TOR; however, reading the other day how they are almost 8 or 9 deep on the 40 man for the starting rotation, so someone (Lauer) may have to start in the BP. He has said to have a preference to stay in the rotation. Could something be worked out in a trade with TOR? Lauer for Matsui or Peralta and a MiL of the lower level?

Their pen is pretty good so probably a non-elite RP would not motivate them. Frankly don't think Matsui has any trade value as a below average RP on a multi-year deal. Peralta may interest some team (a contender) but with his contract (includes opt outs) might yield only a minor league prospect from a contender (or a fringe type ML player).

I guess if the Padres believe that by the end of April both Musgrove and Canning are back in the rotation ... and they have Sears in AAA ... they already have a problem with what to do with Buehler (?). Not sure adding another "fringe" #5 is high on their agenda.

Quote from fenn68 on March 16, 2026, 1:51 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on March 16, 2026, 12:24 pm

Quote from fenn68 on March 16, 2026, 11:11 am

Beginning to looks as though Musgrove will start the season on the IL resulting in a need for 2 SP (or 1 with off days plus a bulk inning RP).

Padres (or the media) seem to be hyping the upside of Marquez and settling in on Buehler and Marquez and the candidates to make the roster. Looking (more realistically) at the options ... not so sure we don't see the Padres throw a curve. Consider the options first in ST then in 2025 (WHIP / innings):

0.86 / 11.2 ... 1.19 / 43.0 .... Hart (L)

1.35 / 6.2 ... 1.52 / 126.0 ... Buehler / non-roster

1.68 / 10.2 ... 1.32 / 135.2 ... Sears (L)

1.84 / 10.1 ... 1.57 / 7.0 ... Gillaspie / non-roster

2.10 / 6.2 ... 1.71 / 126.1 ... Marquez

2.84 / 6.1 ... 2.47 / 5.2 ... McKenzie / non-roster

I know the small sample size in ST plus the unknown of how each pitcher's back lot work is viewed BUT combining ST and 2025 would eliminate McKenzie and Gillaspie out of hand. I really have a tough time with the promotion of Marquez since he is not pitching well and really had not be even "average" in quite a few years.

I understand Matsui is again throwing but a good chance he starts on the IL (extended ST) give Hart a window for the LHP long relief.

By elimination that ... for me ... would have Buehler and Sears as SP (until Musgrove / Canning arrive). I do like the innings pitched in 2025 ... and with Musgrove already saying he may need time off during the season ... have arms that have a proven history of innings has value. On a WHIP basis they were better than the others.

Making this a bit messy is that Adam is scheduled to pitch in a ST soon and could be ready for opening day jamming another RP into the mix and ... barring an injury ... could lead to a trade and Marinaccio (pitching for Team Italy) being the odd man out (considering he is out of options.)

Should have some resolution in a week as camp breaks.

 

Acee wrote an article the other day that said that with Musgrove likely to begin the year on the IL they're considering carrying an extra reliever to start the year. He seems to think that Buehler has done enough to earn a spot in the rotation, but with the rest of the candidates failing to impress they could lean into a strength and utilize bullpen days early rather than give a spot to a starter they have less faith in.

He also says that they're holding onto some hope that when the new ownership situation is settled they could gain a bit more financial flexibility that would allow them to make a move.

With the very good depth arms in the pen ... the scenario of mixing and matching using the bullpen as needed might be the most efficient way to begin the season ... especially with open days.

Hopefully new ownership ... once finally approved and settled in ... will free up more spending at the trade deadline. Frankly not much quality to spend on at this point of the season and not great trade chips. With the CBA lockout looming ... would not be surprised to see any major spending moves (or trades) to focus post CBA approval (mid-2027?). Don't think they can make any moves once the current CBA ends (December 1) and FA don't begin until 5 days after the WS ends. Short window and doubt teams or players will be motivated to force a deal in that short window.

Quote from brent wolff on March 20, 2026, 2:15 am

Quote from fenn68 on March 16, 2026, 11:29 am

Similar debate on the 3 bench spots (I concede the starting 8 plus Andujar and Campusano).

OF: Johnson incumbent (out of options) ... good 2025. Non-roster candidates: Bowen (strong ST, provides more power, hitting ML pitching a question even with a strong ST); Rodriguez (nice ST, been a fringe ML player for a few seasons); Taylor (excellent early ST but big fade, top line speed and can play INF / OF). PREDICTION: Johnson retains his seat.

INF: (until SONG returns) no real incumbent. McCoy (been up in 2025 but can't hit, plus defender who has struggle defensively in ST ... on roster); Solak (2B/LF with a very strong ST coming off a strong AAA season in 2025 but in the ML not good fore a few years). PREDICTION: neither makes the opening day roster.

DH/1B: (Sheets / Andujar in). Castellanos (not a great ST but OK with a .732 OPS coming off a "slightly below average" 2025 ... on the roster); France (can be used as back-up 2B, good ST with .844 OPS after a "slightly below average" 2025 plus adds a plus defense option at 1B); Miranda (excellent ST with a 1.010 OPS but been a while since effective in the ML). PREDICTION: both Castellanos and France make the roster ... but one gets eliminated when Song returns. (note Song has returned to swing the bat so still unsure how conservative the Padres will be before activating him).

The bench should be in my opinion:

C = Campusano

RHH 1B/DH = Andujar & Castellanos (I would prefer Miranda personally over Castellanos, but Castellanos is a buddy of Machado).

OF = Johnson (I would prefer Bowen).

INF = France (Again, I would prefer Miranda).

It will be interesting to see what happens when Song returns who gets released or is sent to the minors.  It will be interesting to see how the team constructs their bench this year.  What does everyone think will happen?

Quote from brent wolff on March 20, 2026, 2:32 am

Quote from fenn68 on March 16, 2026, 11:11 am

Beginning to looks as though Musgrove will start the season on the IL resulting in a need for 2 SP (or 1 with off days plus a bulk inning RP).

Padres (or the media) seem to be hyping the upside of Marquez and settling in on Buehler and Marquez and the candidates to make the roster. Looking (more realistically) at the options ... not so sure we don't see the Padres throw a curve. Consider the options first in ST then in 2025 (WHIP / innings):

0.86 / 11.2 ... 1.19 / 43.0 .... Hart (L)

1.35 / 6.2 ... 1.52 / 126.0 ... Buehler / non-roster

1.68 / 10.2 ... 1.32 / 135.2 ... Sears (L)

1.84 / 10.1 ... 1.57 / 7.0 ... Gillaspie / non-roster

2.10 / 6.2 ... 1.71 / 126.1 ... Marquez

2.84 / 6.1 ... 2.47 / 5.2 ... McKenzie / non-roster

I know the small sample size in ST plus the unknown of how each pitcher's back lot work is viewed BUT combining ST and 2025 would eliminate McKenzie and Gillaspie out of hand. I really have a tough time with the promotion of Marquez since he is not pitching well and really had not be even "average" in quite a few years.

I understand Matsui is again throwing but a good chance he starts on the IL (extended ST) give Hart a window for the LHP long relief.

By elimination that ... for me ... would have Buehler and Sears as SP (until Musgrove / Canning arrive). I do like the innings pitched in 2025 ... and with Musgrove already saying he may need time off during the season ... have arms that have a proven history of innings has value. On a WHIP basis they were better than the others.

Making this a bit messy is that Adam is scheduled to pitch in a ST soon and could be ready for opening day jamming another RP into the mix and ... barring an injury ... could lead to a trade and Marinaccio (pitching for Team Italy) being the odd man out (considering he is out of options.)

Should have some resolution in a week as camp breaks.

 

It will be interesting what the Opening Day pitching staff will look like:

The starters appear to be: Pivetta, King, Vasquez, Buehler & Marquez, until Musgrove & Canning are ready and they replace Marquez & Buehler.  I would personally go with a 6-man rotation once Musgrove & Canning return with the least effective of Buehler & Marquez either released or requested to go to El Paso/DFA, in order to limit the innings of King, Musgrove and Canning for a postseason run.  Sears & McKenzie go to El Paso and are starting pitching depth.  Marco Gonzalez probably asks for his release.

The pen is still the strength of the team: Miller, Morejon, Adams, Estrada, Morgan, Rodriguez, Peralta, & Marinaccio/Hart, with Matsui opening the season on the IL.  It is possible that Hart goes to El Paso as he can be optioned while Marinaccio is out of options.  Gillespie, a Stammen favorite, goes to El Paso as a relief arm depth.  It will be interesting to see what moves are made when Matsui is ready.

It will be interesting to see how all of this plays out.  What does everyone else think?

 

Quote from fenn68 on March 20, 2026, 7:43 am

Given what looks like the IL candidates to start the season agree Pivetta - King - Vasquez - Marquez - Buehler are starters with Musgrove - Canning on the IL and Sears optioned to AAA. Gonzalez and McKenzie are on minor league deals and not sure if they can opt out (or even if the Padres want to keep Gonzalez given a lot of arms on the EP roster).

Initial pen may deal with Adam and Matsui on the IL ... in a sense that helps in the short run. LHRP (3) becomes Morejon, Peralta, and Hart (who can be the long man). RHRP (5) Miller, Estrada, Morgan for sure then maybe Marrinacio (out of options), and Rodriguez. Gillaspie (non-roster) gets AAA.

Since apparently none of the IL players are long term issues ... might see them all back late April. That is when Preller will have some challenges. None of Musgrove, Canning, Adam, and Matsui can be optioned. That bumps against Buehler, Marquez, and Marrinacio who cannot be optioned. Also, my understanding is that any FA signing cannot be traded until June 15 without their consent. So, if Canning, Buehler, or Marquez are worth keeping ... other teams would be want to sign them motivating them to not want to go to the minors and instead return to FA.

The simple start is optioning Rodriguez and Hart to make room in the pen for Adam and Matsui. Bigger issues is how to insert Musgrove and Canning (although could see him being inserted as long relief to start ... maybe at the loss of Marinaccio).

Of course, a new injury could emerge and / or Preller could swing a minor trade. Plus one of the opening day arms could just "earn" their way off the roster. This will keep us on our toes during April.

Quote from fenn68 on March 21, 2026, 3:00 pm

Padres have added both Buehler and France to the ML roster.

Wonder how that impacts the future of Castellanos when Song returns mid-April (or even for the opening day roster). Baring injuries, looks like a competition between France and Castellanos for that RHH bench role.

France (31) has had a better ST offensively and is a gold glove 1B ... Castellanos (34) just has not hit in ST. One clue is that Padres have Castellanos at league minimum but added France at a higher contract level ... probably would not make that commitment for only a couple of weeks. ST is not necessarily a clear decider but looking at them in 2025:

France: wRC+ 92 (overall); 90 (vLHP); 93 (vRHP) ... 83 (home); 100 (road) ...  102 (2nd half).

Castellanos: wRC+ 90 (overall); 87 (vLHP); 91 (RHP) ... 105 (home); 73 (road) ... 59 (2nd half).

Leaning towards France who had a better 2025 except for Castellanos hitting at home in PHILLY. Then add he is younger and a gold glove 1B.

________________

Side: weeks ago heard an interview with a PHILLY media guy who clearly was not a Castellanos fan beyond his on field faults. He did say any local media will have a tough time interviewing him ... basically a jerk attitude. Just heard a Bob Scanlan attempt to interview him ... the Philly guy may be on point ... not the most accommodating guy.

On the flip side did hear an interview with France ... cooperative, informative, and came across as a positive player.

Something to think about ... I would consider dropping Castellanos before opening day ... keep McCoy (PR/defense SS) for the short time until Song returns. Give France / Andjuar the RH ABs for 1B/DH.