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Rule 5 draft
#11 · November 28, 2020, 11:45 am
FENN, you make some great points about Rule 5 "taking jobs" from more experienced vets, and players being constrained too long in the minors.
The biggest flaw by far in Rule 5 is that International FA's-- who are often signed at Age 16--are on the same Rule 5 timeline that High School players are, despite typically being 2 years younger and often starting their professional career at a lower level (DSL).
Tucupita Marcano is the perfect example. He just turned 21. He has zero regular season AB above low-A (played well in 7 games in High-A playoffs). He's clearly nowhere near MLB ready, but the Padres had no choice but to protect him. He is not an outlier; a huge # of the guys protected, available, and picked each year, are Intl FA's. Luis Perdomo, Luis Torrens, Miguel Diaz, Allen Cordoba.... So the rule flaw has benefited the Padres too (Preller gets props for recognizing it).
I would add 1 year before becoming Rule 5 eligible to Intl FA's below age 18 when they signed (6 years control vs 5 for HS draftees). This would eliminate a large # of players being eligible/protected and selected for Rule 5, which would "open up" MLB rosters significantly. The Intl players would still hit R5, but at an age/development level more in line with the drafted players in each team's system. It's possible that this rule change alone would effectively eliminate Rule 5 draft if nothing else changed....
But I feel the requirement to spend a full season on an MLB roster is too restrictive to the selecting team. I would lower this bar. Something like: Must make O.D. roster and remain up till May 1st. Then can be optioned at any time, but must accrue 120 games (75%) of MLB service time or be offered back to original team. This would give these players some much needed development time at a more appropriate level where they can "play every day". But then it creates an interesting 2nd decision point for the selecting team; are they showing enough to keep on MLB roster & bring back up, or not?
#12 · November 28, 2020, 3:04 pm
I am more for simplicity .... if a minor league player is 24 years old on November 1 AND has completed 4 minor league seasons ... he becomes a ML free agent UNLESS he is added to the 40 man roster.
Takes care of signing age issues from Latin players, HS players, College players from a control standpoint for the club but frees the minor league players a reasonable age.
#13 · December 4, 2020, 12:45 pm
Aha! This fully formed in my head while writing this post. IF there is 1 guy that Preller WOULD take in Rule 5... he should call Pittsburgh (then Texas, Detroit, Red Sox, down to Baltimore at #5) to try to work out a trade of Javier Guerra for that guy (via trade on R5 day). We could throw in our pick late in R5 to that team too. A "conditional" trade ... i.e. we have to get the specific guy we want or no deal.
- "Pittsburgh" gets: RP Javy Guerra & #27 pick in R5 draft
- PADRES get: "#1" pick in R5 draft (a position player), maybe PTBNL (non-prospect org guy)
This is essentially a trade of lower (15-30) Top 30 prospects, with the twist being it's not (by definition can't be) the acquiring team's prospect. It's not "perfect"; it would be better to simply straight trade Guerra for a more controllable prospect. BUT it acknowledges that Guerra almost "is" a Rule 5 prospect; he can't be optioned (none left) without going through Waivers.
Differences:
- Major Positive: He doesn't have to be offered back to the Padres if Waived. This means it's vastly more likely "Pitt" can retain him in Minors if he is Waived at end of ST or during season
- Major Positive: He's already played in MLB. Definitely "over his head", but not jumping up from low-A with no Minors season like many guys would be; especially important this year.
- Major Positive: "Stuff". Guerra's FB, easy delivery, & athleticism as a recent SS (& emergency availability there) easily give him a "45" Overall grade. As good or better than any P available in R5. Needs low leverage pitching experience a bad team can provide.
- Major Negative: No "future" options. Can't stash him in Minors next year (would be Minors FA). So he has to make enough progress to be a MLB roster lock (7th-8th man in pen) on a 'Bad trying to improve team' by end of season. If waived & retained in Minors, would have to add him back to 40-man by year end to control him in 2022+.
- Minor Negative: "Only" 5 years control. Not a big deal. Main issue is potentially hits Arb eligible 1 yr sooner
I have Guerra 11th on the Padres RP depth chart not counting adding a Closer type or ANY of the top SP prospects who could wind up in bullpen. With 4 or more MLB roster needs, Guerra going off roster before ST seems more & more inevitable. Why not get a player to compete at a position of higher need in exchange?
#14 · December 4, 2020, 12:57 pm
I buy that approach if Preller has a “target” player for the INF/OF ... would not be adverse to use Guerra or Williams or Altavilla (all out of options) and unlikely to make the 26 man roster ... so buyer’s choice.
No real idea on a player ... but maybe the next Evreth Cabrera is lurking who came in and actually contributed. As it stand only Mateo is around so the bar is very low and can’t really expect a FA signing (or two). Odd form of an insurance policy at a low cost.
#15 · December 5, 2020, 11:08 am
Quote from fenn68 on December 4, 2020, 12:57 pmI buy that approach if Preller has a “target” player for the INF/OF ... would not be adverse to use Guerra or Williams or Altavilla (all out of options) and unlikely to make the 26 man roster ... so buyer’s choice.
No real idea on a player ... but maybe the next Evreth Cabrera is lurking who came in and actually contributed. As it stand only Mateo is around so the bar is very low and can’t really expect a FA signing (or two). Odd form of an insurance policy at a low cost.
Altavilla really flashed at end of season. Williams I agree is injury depth likely to be traded at end of ST if not needed. But Guerra is much more like a R5 prospect... all about the upside, but not a good fit even as a "deep depth" piece on a playoff contender b/c still "feeling his way " at RP. Idea is acquiring team is "picking" Guerra in Rule 5 over the other RP's available.
My favorite young INF, OF, and idea overall:
LAA #19: Livan Soto (L) 20 SS 50 Hit & Run, 60 Arm, 55 Field, 30 Power. “Long term SS”, can play 2B/3B, Good: Bat to ball skills, plate discipline, LH swing. From Braves 2016 INTL signing class lost by penalty (FA). Hope to trade for/push to Minors
Pittsburgh #23: Lolo Sanchez 21 CF 50 Hit. 60 Run, 55 Field & Arm, 35 Power. Pitch recognition issues. 4th OF profile
These guys are best young INF/OF fits I found. Among the very few guys in R5 with 5o Hit tools (45 Overall grades). Couldn't have Pitt pick Sanchez since he is their prospect (next team in R5). IF either stuck in MLB, good fits. Soto as an occassional LH bat sub @ SS & 3B (talking 4-5 games each in a full season) superior defensively to what Greg Garcia was. Sanchez as the "RH CF capable OF". Glaring lack of power more "OK" for Soto on the dirt behind Tatis/Machado. Limits Sanchez' ultimate ceiling to 4th OF; not a long term answer @ either corner. Possible could trade either down to Minors, but no control over that, and would cost at least a little more in $/assets.
But knowing Pham is back, this is even more my favorite choice:
A’s #24: Buddy Reed (S) 25 CF Overall: 40 Grade. 70 Run, 65 Field, 60 Arm, 40 Hit & Power. I know, I know… but he perfectly fits MLB need as a RH CF who can defensively sub at all 3 OF positions, pinch run/double switch. Particularly good fit if Pham returns (defensive late game sub). Legit competition for Jorge Mateo & Greg Allen as 5th OF.
Reed's "fit" is even better if there is no DH. For the specific, 1 year need of an elite defensive sub for Pham to help protect a lead late, and to make some starts in CF vs LHP, Reed is a better fit than Sanchez. He would have a better chance of making and helping this team right now than Guerra. Unlikely more than 1 of Reed, Mateo, G. Allen makes roster, but that's a good thing. Reed will never get to a 50 Hit tool. But it's fair to say he COULD get better, unlike Gettys & maybe even Mateo who both had extensive time at AAA. And it's conceivable his power does get to 50. Uber athlete with great personality late to baseball, could still develop. But signs of being unable or unwilling to change approach at the plate in AA in Pads system... at least he was AT AA.
Reed is an atypical Rule 5 "prospect" that most teams won't be interested in due to his age and 40 overall grade. It's entirely possible he's available to Padres at their #27 choice since only 10-12 guys total likely to be chosen. Then could trade Guerra later for a different (non roster prospect) asset. Or could even just wait out R5, hope no one takes Reed, and see if can trade Guerra (or something else) for him as a non-roster player invited to ST. That would be most ideal & worth some premium b/c of flexibility of being able to keep him in minors. Would have to add him to MLB roster by year end to avoid him becoming a minors FA.
#16 · December 5, 2020, 11:10 am
Despite all the gyrations re Rule 5, it's still unlikely Pads make a MLB selection.
But I expect even picking at bottom of draft they will pick one or more guys in the Minors portion to backfill AA with some org guys.
Unlikely to lose players in this portion, since thin at those levels.
#17 · December 5, 2020, 11:55 am
Quote from Brian Connelly on December 5, 2020, 11:10 amDespite all the gyrations re Rule 5, it's still unlikely Pads make a MLB selection.
But I expect even picking at bottom of draft they will pick one or more guys in the Minors portion to backfill AA with some org guys.
Unlikely to lose players in this portion, since thin at those levels.
Guessing that is the probably outcome. Padres need bodies for INF/OF in AAA/AA even if it is for competition in ST with some minor league FA signings.
#18 · December 5, 2020, 11:56 am
Concur, don't think any of the available infielders, in particular, are any better than what Mateo could be over a longer period of exposure to major league pitching. We do need some position players at the AA level but there are a lot of college drafted pitchers that need to show what they have or face release. Should be a lot of competition among pitching prospects all through the organization in 2021. My surprise choice at the upper levels will be the long awaited comeback of Espinoza - can't wait to see if he has anything left after 4 years of inactivity.
#19 · December 5, 2020, 2:30 pm
I like the idea of Reed coming back, Brian.
Definitely be a better 4th outfielder than is currently in our system.
Amazing how just a few trades DECIMATED our upper minor teams.
I like the guys below AA but it's obviously going to take a few years before any of them are in San Diego( Abrams being the first?)
#20 · December 5, 2020, 6:00 pm
Quote from WindsorUK on December 5, 2020, 2:30 pmI like the idea of Reed coming back, Brian.
Definitely be a better 4th outfielder than is currently in our system.
Amazing how just a few trades DECIMATED our upper minor teams.
I like the guys below AA but it's obviously going to take a few years before any of them are in San Diego( Abrams being the first?)
I know some guys here on this forum really like the idea of 3, 4 or 5 for 1 trades so the question I would ask is did AJ Preller over pay on most of his trades because as Windsor pointed out "Amazing how just a few trades DECIMATED our upper minor teams."
Some of these guys that were traded for either are already gone or will be soon....what exactly did we give up vs what will we actually have for a few years if any ?