Quote from fenn68 on November 23, 2019, 9:51 am

Quote from TatisJr on November 23, 2019, 8:46 am

I read that Sale a return would look similar to the Greinke to Astros deal. Seth Beer was the  top prospect moved in that deal and he’s not even a top 80 prospect. The Padres could definitely put together a package for Sale and have Boston eat some money like the Dbacks did in the Astros deal.The elbow issues and velocity changes in Sale over the years would be a concern for me as well.

From both a buyer's and seller's view a Sale trade is hard to build.

He is "only" 31 but carries another 5 years / $145MM of salary ... and last report (late Sept) I saw was the he is resting / not throwing but is not progressing as fast as hoped. Still a chance that TJ is needed if the plasma treatment does not work.

A big buyer beware in taking on that contract even if they give up nothing ... and Boston needs a team to take on the contract first and foremost.

As for the Greinke comp ... Greinke was about 5 years older and on a shorter deal plus healthy. Could make the argument in that case that Boston should give any buyer prospects to go with Sale to hedge taking the contract (but they really don't have any to deal).

I guess if I were Boston ... the better strategy to clear payroll is trade Betts (FA after 2020) for little just to clear what may be his $28MM salary and non-tender Bradley (FA after 2020) to clear what appears to be about an $11MM salary. That would leave them with some wiggle room under the luxury tax threshold for some small FA adds to fill out the OF. They take the gamble that Sale recovers and has a strong 2020 ... then ... if they want ... they could deal him for a load of prospects or just keep him to build around.

May see Boston sinking fast as a contender with key players either going FA (Betts, Bradley) or less the fully effective  for their cost (Price, Evoldi) or potentially injured (Sale). Then consider Martinez is somewhat limited to DH and still has another opt out window.

If I were SD would not take the risk on Sale and end up with $100MM tied up with Sale, Machado, Hosmer, and Myers for the next 3 years.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 23, 2019, 11:01 am

The only saving grace about Sale's contract is that he has an opt out after 2022. If he was unhappy being in a smaller market, such as SD, and hes healthy, maybe he opts out. Doubtful though.

Quote from TatisJr on November 23, 2019, 5:45 pm

I was under the impression Sale was fine to pitch come spring 2020. If he’s not that obviously changes things. Sales had shoulder, elbow and velocity fluctuations on different occasions through his career. I think that’s always been a concern with him. There was criticism of his Boston extension due to those issues. It’s a gamble for sure, but if he is healthy he’s one of the games most dominant pitchers.

I was thinking the Red Sox and Padres match up pretty well on a potential deal. The Padres want to make a splash. The Sox have a new FO, need to cut salary and they could also could use a roster makeover. Their farm system is poor to say the least. The Padres have a deep farm and the Sox have some big money/big splash type talents.  Sale to the Padres for Myers, Urias, A.Allen, Morejon, M. Thompson type package would make some sense to me. Myers could play first and put up good numbers in Fenway. The Sox get some financial relief and talented young players for Sale. The Padres get Sale and dump Myers money so you could look at like getting Sale for 5 years 81 million. I don’t think ownership would find the salary difference between Sale/Myers too restraining.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 23, 2019, 5:56 pm

Quote from TatisJr on November 23, 2019, 5:45 pm

I was under the impression Sale was fine to pitch come spring 2020. If he’s not that obviously changes things. Sales had shoulder, elbow and velocity fluctuations on different occasions through his career. I think that’s always been a concern with him. There was criticism of his Boston extension due to those issues. It’s a gamble for sure, but if he is healthy he’s one of the games most dominant pitchers.

I was thinking the Red Sox and Padres match up pretty well on a potential deal. The Padres want to make a splash. The Sox have a new FO, need to cut salary and they could also could use a roster makeover. Their farm system is poor to say the least. The Padres have a deep farm and the Sox have some big money/big splash type talents.  Sale to the Padres for Myers, Urias, A.Allen, Morejon, M. Thompson type package would make some sense to me. Myers could play first and put up good numbers in Fenway. The Sox get some financial relief and talented young players for Sale. The Padres get Sale and dump Myers money so you could look at like getting Sale for 5 years 81 million. I don’t think ownership would find the salary difference between Sale/Myers too restraining.

I simply think BOS wont take Myers back as they are in need of getting rid of contracts, not taking on contracts. If they could get someone to take Sales contract, they dont want to take another bad one back. For instance, if BOS was to take Myers back, they only save $7.5M± depending on the true luxury tax number. That goes no where in BOS need for CBT relief, they need something like $30-40M. And if SD is taking all or most of Sales contract, then we dont need to give up all the guys that you mention.

Quote from TatisJr on November 23, 2019, 6:10 pm

I don’t think Boston would deal Sale with the 2020 luxury tax as its main concern. I think Boston’s best route is to deal Sale and Betts or JDM for what you can and try to dump Price with a Benintendi or prospects acquired in deals for Sale, Betts etc. The Sox are in bad shape in both the short and long term.  Getting out of a 5 year commitment with Sale seems like a smart route for them when you have young guys like Bogarts and Devers who will be due to get paid in coming years.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 23, 2019, 6:39 pm

Quote from TatisJr on November 23, 2019, 6:10 pm

I don’t think Boston would deal Sale with the 2020 luxury tax as its main concern. I think Boston’s best route is to deal Sale and Betts or JDM for what you can and try to dump Price with a Benintendi or prospects acquired in deals for Sale, Betts etc. The Sox are in bad shape in both the short and long term.  Getting out of a 5 year commitment with Sale seems like a smart route for them when you have young guys like Bogarts and Devers who will be due to get paid in coming years.

I think with the new GM, one that comes from TAM, I think/hope you see BOS take more of a LAD cautionary tale with its money and not go all in with the big/long contracts, buying any FA they want. So, with that being said, I do think BOS would ship either one of Sale/Price/JDM or a combo or two out of the three specifically in an effort to get under the CBT and most importantly, in order to have the money at the ready to attempt to keep Betts.

Quote from JasonE135 on November 23, 2019, 7:04 pm

Most teams in mlb have players on bloated contracts that they would love to get rid of. There is no need to give up prospects for the privilege of taking on someone else's obligation. If we wanted Sale or Price we could have either one for free. We don't want them because they are worth nothing near what they are getting paid and their contracts would cripple us for years.

The Padres, as a team with a top farm system and lots of premium prospects, are the kind of team that controls the market. Every team wants our prospects because they are top talents, have tons of control and are incredibly cheap. The same cannot be said about even Betts and Lindor. While everyone would like to have those players, they are very expensive and have no control. There are very few teams even thinking about trying to get those guys.

While it is usually the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies who control the free agent market, it is teams like our Padres, the Astros and the Rays who have control over the trade market. I think Preller will be the one pushing other GMs around at the trade table.

Quote from TatisJr on November 23, 2019, 7:34 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on November 23, 2019, 7:04 pm

Most teams in mlb have players on bloated contracts that they would love to get rid of. There is no need to give up prospects for the privilege of taking on someone else's obligation. If we wanted Sale or Price we could have either one for free. We don't want them because they are worth nothing near what they are getting paid and their contracts would cripple us for years.

The Padres, as a team with a top farm system and lots of premium prospects, are the kind of team that controls the market. Every team wants our prospects because they are top talents, have tons of control and are incredibly cheap. The same cannot be said about even Betts and Lindor. While everyone would like to have those players, they are very expensive and have no control. There are very few teams even thinking about trying to get those guys.

While it is usually the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies who control the free agent market, it is teams like our Padres, the Astros and the Rays who have control over the trade market. I think Preller will be the one pushing other GMs around at the trade table.

Jason, If Sale is ready to go in spring 2020, you could not get him for free. That’s crazy talk! If healthy he’s one of the top pitchers in the game.

As for your second and third paragraphs... I feel like that’s what I’ve been saying this entire offseason. Often debating you on the other end. 😜 I’m glad we agree AJP holds the strongest hand of any GM this offseason.

 

Quote from JasonE135 on November 23, 2019, 10:09 pm

Quote from TatisJr on November 23, 2019, 7:34 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on November 23, 2019, 7:04 pm

Most teams in mlb have players on bloated contracts that they would love to get rid of. There is no need to give up prospects for the privilege of taking on someone else's obligation. If we wanted Sale or Price we could have either one for free. We don't want them because they are worth nothing near what they are getting paid and their contracts would cripple us for years.

The Padres, as a team with a top farm system and lots of premium prospects, are the kind of team that controls the market. Every team wants our prospects because they are top talents, have tons of control and are incredibly cheap. The same cannot be said about even Betts and Lindor. While everyone would like to have those players, they are very expensive and have no control. There are very few teams even thinking about trying to get those guys.

While it is usually the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies who control the free agent market, it is teams like our Padres, the Astros and the Rays who have control over the trade market. I think Preller will be the one pushing other GMs around at the trade table.

Jason, If Sale is ready to go in spring 2020, you could not get him for free. That’s crazy talk! If healthy he’s one of the top pitchers in the game.

As for your second and third paragraphs... I feel like that’s what I’ve been saying this entire offseason. Often debating you on the other end. I’m glad we agree AJP holds the strongest hand of any GM this offseason.

 

Sorry, you are right Mr. Tatis. Sale still has value. Eovaldi is their other starter who has no value. Still, Sale is a huge risk.

Teams still expect that players like Betts and Lindor are worth huge troves of prospects. AJ knows they are not. So do a couple of other GMs. Any GM who has a quality player with very little control still expects a fortune in return though. I think it is going to take a while for other GMs to figure out that they are not. The Yankees and Red Sox always used to be there if you had a star you were willing to trade for prospects. Now even they have changed. Now there are far many more teams with players to sell than teams looking to buy, and nobody is willing to give away boatloads of prospects. The market hasn't caught up yet. I think it will take 2-4 years of none of those rentals getting traded for the market to catch up. Unfortunately, we have to be the trendsetters. It is a bad time to be a buyer. Everyone is still expecting to be able to sell their house for $1 million even though the real estate market has just crashed.