Quote from fenn68 on September 6, 2023, 4:03 am

And can’t assume anyone traded for (or signed as a FA) will be guaranteed to perform as projected. (Padres have proven that).

Front office needs to display good player evaluation / projection and blend that with the context of building a complete team with the money available over the long term. That must keep open the possibility of trading anyone.

However, think the Padres are at a juncture following a major spending spree that has not worked out yet (if ever) where they need to build in some homegrown, long term control, low cost talent to create some stability and support the big money players. Need to make the bet on the unknown … might as well as be their own top rated prospects … and yes, the majority will not become impact players.

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 6, 2023, 4:25 am

Watching the game last night … zero runs looked great for Avila and his 6 2/3 innings were important on a thin pen available for the game BUT he was really helped by a lot of double plays offsetting a lot of walks. His extreme ability to get ground balls was the key … and that seems to be his norm. Who is the real Avila?

He is still only 26 … was a good enough prospect years ago to be added to the 40 man … then injuries / performance got him DFA off the 40 man (unclaimed) … then uneven in the minors but need got him re-added to the 40 man and called-up to the ML … pitched effectively in his return.

So, is Avila a legit pitcher to bet on as an effective #5/6 SP … long RP … in 2025? If yes, can alter priorities in upgrades (limited assets will force having priorities … not able to add “everyone”). If no, with Snell, Wacha, Lugo potentially departing, do they have to prioritize three SP (maybe four) over position players / RP? Not going to win the big prize without a deep pitching staff.

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 6, 2023, 7:55 am

I'm gonna guess that next years #5 is already on the roster...whether it be Avila,Groome,Waldron.

I just don't see us being able to resign all that are leaving or afford 2-3 free agents.

Again,unless we trade Merrill for a SP.

And also again...not saying I am for trading Merrill...just that I could see the priority switching from his bat to an arm....esp if we re-sign Soto and/or  Kim.

 

 

Quote from BoosterSD on September 6, 2023, 8:54 am

Well the truth is that Preller has severely hamstrung this team going forward by spending a lot of money that was not a position of need by signing Bogaerts. Even though he has been solid in the field at SS, and yes for the most part, a disappointment at the plate, it was money that never should have been allocated to that spot anyway.

So now, something drastic will need to be done to correct for that signing. And unfortunately, I do think that will be trading Merrill. I know Finn disagrees with the ability of Preller to trade one hot prospect for another hot prospect that is a SP v SS, but we will see what happens this offseason.

Basically, Preller has spent so much on position players, that he now needs to get creative to find SPs because he is running out of Seidlers money.

Quote from fenn68 on September 6, 2023, 10:31 am

Seems that a core fault with Preller (and maybe Siedler) is his inability to build a complete team to cover a full 162 games season ... spends on big names (even if they are good) and then punts on the rest of the roster. Not the best strategy to build a winner. Almost too much focus on adding the star and too little focus on everyone else.

I never did understand the Bogaert's signing (at 30, 10 years / $260MM) no matter how good he was in BOST when already had under long term deals with Machado / Tatis ... forcing a gold glove level SS in Kim to 2B and a gold glove 2B in Cronenworth to 1B (where even his 2022 offense does not play). Then ignore catcher (at the time Nola and ?) and CF (going with a sub .200 Grisham) and DH (Cruz / Carpenter). Plus nothing sitting in AAA. Even if he did perform to expectations ... those "holes" still would have brought the team to mediocrity.

Actually did not understand the extensions of Cronenworth and Darvish. Cronenworth (7 years after 2023 / $80MM for a 28-29 year old with diminishing offense over each of his seasons ... and, critically, still had a couple of years of control via arbitration to see if that production decline would continue). Darvish (35 already looking more like a mid-rotation guy gets a deal to take him into his 40's and an $18MM AAV). Not seeing those long term / big dollar deals being ones that help the TEAM over the next few years but see the more a focus on INDIVIDUALS who maybe Preller / Sieldler like.

Will they go down the same rabbit hole with re-signing Soto, Kim, Snell and ignore everything else?

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 6, 2023, 1:16 pm

Signing Snell would be addressing a need rather than ignoring it though.

Same with Soto really....only a Kim extension,if we keep Merrill,would be a redundant signing.....even if we ALL hope he stays.

We need pitching and OF/DH and/or 1B

IMO it should "either be" extend Kim OR keep Merrill....keeping both only exasperates the issue of too many infielders and not enough pitching/OF/DH

Sucks because we all want to keep Kim and Merrill.

Could be done if we move X to 1B or Merrill to LF....but then there could be the Ol' square peg in a round hole situation.

They won't all take to new positions like Nando did.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 6, 2023, 3:38 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 6, 2023, 1:16 pm

Signing Snell would be addressing a need rather than ignoring it though.

Same with Soto really....only a Kim extension,if we keep Merrill,would be a redundant signing.....even if we ALL hope he stays.

We need pitching and OF/DH and/or 1B

IMO it should "either be" extend Kim OR keep Merrill....keeping both only exasperates the issue of too many infielders and not enough pitching/OF/DH

Sucks because we all want to keep Kim and Merrill.

Could be done if we move X to 1B or Merrill to LF....but then there could be the Ol' square peg in a round hole situation.

They won't all take to new positions like Nando did.

 

 

Signing Soto, Kim, and Snell would be probably a $90-100MM AAV commitment for a long time on top of the commitments to the current seven on long term / big money deals. That is a lot of coin into keeping this team in tact … an underperforming team. Padres would be well into the $300MM payroll before addressing the the currently perceived holes. Hard to see even Siedler going down that route.

If I had to choose among these guys for re-signing (and having fluctuations in my thinking) … Snell covers the most immediate need BUT of the three I see him with the biggest chance of regression (side is that rumors suggesting the Padres have NOT been in contact to seek an extension … why?). Kim is may favorite (just the guy I love to watch) BUT redundant Merrill on the come (no word on any extension talk). Soto may be the most talented (and safest) of the group BUT a huge price tag and if you believe in Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts, Cronenworth maybe not critical for a quality offense and the commitment to him could be used on multiple other upgrades (rumors are that the Padres are in extension discussions with him).

Since Soto and Kim are not FA until after 2024 … would think there would be a push to sign Snell given the need for SP and the potential the bats rebound … will not win without some top level SP. (side: if the Padres are really not pursuing Snell … could it be they have an unofficial agreement to sign Yamamoto out of Japan … younger and probably a bit cheaper … to address the SP hole?)

Do think IF they are in negotiations with Soto this year … first, they really do want to sign him long term / big money but if those negotiations they cannot come to agreement before the winter meetings the just may cut bait and trade him to at least recoup some assets rather than lose him via FA. That is a “stay tuned” cliffhanger.

Kim? As much as I love him … $20-25MM is pretty steep unless he is the SS where he maximizes his defensive value and although most of us would like Bogaerts off SS not getting the feeling the Padres are in the mood to do that. Might be the odd man out if Soto stays with 2B going to Merrill (or the return of Cronenworth if they land a real 1B). If Soto goes, Merrill to the OF (not as though Soto is a good LF … actually very few good LF defensively) and we all see if he can hit in the ML.

So it is shaping up for Soto to be the first domino that sets the other moves into motion.

Tossing in another rumor … Padres have been showing “interest” in Cody Bellinger (1B/CF) as a FA (LHH alternative if Soto does not sign or gets traded?). Coming off a great comeback season and will be cheaper than Soto, could play CF displacing Grisham while still allowing Merrill to cover LF (if Soto traded) or DH/super utility (if Soto retained) and retaining a Machado - Bogaerts - Kim - Cronenworth INF. If they have Bellinger in the fold along with Merrill for 2024 … after 2024 maybe easier to move on from Soto and/or Kim. Guessing (with Boras the agent) we would see near a $30MM AAV (7 years) for Bellinger … minimum.

A case could be made if the Padres determine they can’t re-sign Soto (who should make about $30MM in 2024) but they can sign Bellinger for about $30MM AAV … sign Bellinger to lock down the LHH offense and upgrade CF and trade Soto to clear the $30MM for the signing, get some return assets, and work on LF which should be easier to fill with a serviceable player.

A lot of options but it is Soto/Boras that are the critical path in my view … and have no real clue how the dominoes will fall.

 

Quote from sportwarrior on September 7, 2023, 7:53 am

I'm still surprised at the Hector Gomez rumors that we are not only engaged with Soto, but that talks are going "very well." That feels like unnecessary commentary unless he truly had that impression based on what he's heard.

All that is to say... what, exactly, is the plan here? As Fenn just said, it seems highly unlikely the team resigns Soto and Kim and Snell long term, especially considering our glaring holes... and yet, if we are to accept this report as true, the team obviously feels they can retain Soto and also field a competitive balance of the roster. Where is the ceiling, here?