Quote from MrPadre19 on December 9, 2023, 5:53 pm

Anyone want to venture a guess as to our starting OF on opening day?

I’m going to say:

LF Max Kepler

CF Lee

RF Tatis

🤷‍♂️

 

Quote from JasonE135 on December 9, 2023, 5:59 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 9, 2023, 6:49 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 9, 2023, 5:53 am

With Thorpe/Lizzaraga/Snelling/Mazur/Iriarte all close…and Lesko behind them maybe AJ signs a solid #2-#3 type SP…or even trades for one knowing he could flip him,or another SP,at the deadline and not miss a beat as these young guys prove ready.

We need a solid #3 or #4 “right now”,but if all perform well we could be flush with them in August and certainly in 2025

 

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 9, 2023, 5:53 am

With Thorpe/Lizzaraga/Snelling/Mazur/Iriarte all close…and Lesko behind them maybe AJ signs a solid #2-#3 type SP…or even trades for one knowing he could flip him,or another SP,at the deadline and not miss a beat as these young guys prove ready.

We need a solid #3 or #4 “right now”,but if all perform well we could be flush with them in August and certainly in 2025

 

A legit #3 seem the most logical given the budget and pretty flexible on an arm that may have long term value (but low cost now) or short term value (but higher cost) expecting that that player (or one of the other SP candidates) can get move as needed.

Stepping back Musgrove - Darvish - King seem set as SP BUT no a clear call on Brito (who many seem to see a better fit in the pen) and Vasquez. The sea of prospects are all considered at least a half season out but I am fine if they take all 2024 to further develop … so a quality arm that lasts all 2023 may be the target in that #3-4 range.

Considering Brito and Vazquez are both considered (by most) better than much of the Padres RP and they have experience as RP (also have minor league options) adding a SP might improve the pen as one move there. Would either be a pen RH upgrade over Avila,  Waldron, Kolek? Probably yes.

So the need is there … is there a pitcher that Preller likes and can acquire (FA cost, trade capital)? Remember almost all the other teams seem to want the same thing.

We all know how much Preller loves his draft picks. I'm pretty sure that the lux tax will be the limit of our spending this year. That gives the Padres maybe $25 million max to spend.

The Padres are shopping at the shallow end of the free agent pool this year. Just one #4/5 starter and an OF like Lee would require Preller's entire budget and leave prospects to cover LF. I think this is likely. One solid OF or 2 questionable ones. Same thing with the starters: one solid or 2 questionable. High quality? Not on the table.

Musgrove, Darvish and King will be our #1-#3 starters for the next 2 years. The Padres don't have the financial flexibility to add anymore TOR starters. The Padres next #3 or better arm will almost certainly come from among Lesko, Snelling, Iriarte, Mazur or Thorpe.

 

Quote from JasonE135 on December 9, 2023, 6:12 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 9, 2023, 5:53 pm

Anyone want to venture a guess as to our starting OF on opening day?

I’m going to say:

LF Max Kepler

CF Lee

RF Tatis

🤷‍♂️

 

Starting outfield:

RF- Tatis

CF- Lee

LF- Merrill. I think that Merrill will start in the IF as replacement for Manny, but will eventually take over LF to get regular at-bats when Manny comes back.

Quote from fenn68 on December 10, 2023, 3:16 am

In my mind, Padres need 3 OF bats with at least one capable at 1B (or 2B or 3B) while Manny still is recovering from the surgery and the quality of that player is a function of how long the Padres believe Manny is at DH. Current thinking is Kim rotates to 3B to cover … Croney could go toe 2B or 1B depending on the back fill. IF this a real short period … would not rule out Batten / Rosario at 2B or Carpenter at 1B.

Put that need into the context of staying under the Luxury Tax minimum threshold of $237MM and I have the Padres around $204MM … so, MAX $33MM to deploy BUT must keep a cushion to allow mid-season call-ups who will jump to league minimum and maybe some cushion for a trade deadline add as needed … and still remain under $237MM. Maybe cap adds now to $25-30MM. Not a lot for 3 position players AND Preller’s comments about more pitching.

This may push the Padres to have one (or two) of Merrill, Marsee, and Pauley make the squad out of ST as league minimum players. Since Profar is getting little traction elsewhere and both he and the Padres seem a good fit … he should be a re-sign for $3-4MM and can fill in at 1B - LF and be super utility. Then add a short term (1-2 years) under $10MM type (Taylor, Bader, Winkler) to end up with the 3 position player adds at around $12-13MM (or less). Focus the remaining $12+ on a SP … if that is less maybe add a RP.

SF will price Lee out of the Padres’ range.

So, an OF of Marsee or Merrill/Profar - Bader/Azocar - Tatis?

Wild card would be trades … prospects for a league minimum (or low cost) player (either SP or position player) OR moving Cronenworth and/or Suarez for more salary space but while opening another need if not adding ML help in the trade.

So, sort of seeing Preller spending the most on another SP and using what is left over to mix and match for position players.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 10, 2023, 5:46 am

Quote from JasonE135 on December 9, 2023, 5:59 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 9, 2023, 6:49 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 9, 2023, 5:53 am

With Thorpe/Lizzaraga/Snelling/Mazur/Iriarte all close…and Lesko behind them maybe AJ signs a solid #2-#3 type SP…or even trades for one knowing he could flip him,or another SP,at the deadline and not miss a beat as these young guys prove ready.

We need a solid #3 or #4 “right now”,but if all perform well we could be flush with them in August and certainly in 2025

 

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 9, 2023, 5:53 am

With Thorpe/Lizzaraga/Snelling/Mazur/Iriarte all close…and Lesko behind them maybe AJ signs a solid #2-#3 type SP…or even trades for one knowing he could flip him,or another SP,at the deadline and not miss a beat as these young guys prove ready.

We need a solid #3 or #4 “right now”,but if all perform well we could be flush with them in August and certainly in 2025

 

A legit #3 seem the most logical given the budget and pretty flexible on an arm that may have long term value (but low cost now) or short term value (but higher cost) expecting that that player (or one of the other SP candidates) can get move as needed.

Stepping back Musgrove - Darvish - King seem set as SP BUT no a clear call on Brito (who many seem to see a better fit in the pen) and Vasquez. The sea of prospects are all considered at least a half season out but I am fine if they take all 2024 to further develop … so a quality arm that lasts all 2023 may be the target in that #3-4 range.

Considering Brito and Vazquez are both considered (by most) better than much of the Padres RP and they have experience as RP (also have minor league options) adding a SP might improve the pen as one move there. Would either be a pen RH upgrade over Avila,  Waldron, Kolek? Probably yes.

So the need is there … is there a pitcher that Preller likes and can acquire (FA cost, trade capital)? Remember almost all the other teams seem to want the same thing.

We all know how much Preller loves his draft picks. I'm pretty sure that the lux tax will be the limit of our spending this year. That gives the Padres maybe $25 million max to spend.

The Padres are shopping at the shallow end of the free agent pool this year. Just one #4/5 starter and an OF like Lee would require Preller's entire budget and leave prospects to cover LF. I think this is likely. One solid OF or 2 questionable ones. Same thing with the starters: one solid or 2 questionable. High quality? Not on the table.

Musgrove, Darvish and King will be our #1-#3 starters for the next 2 years. The Padres don't have the financial flexibility to add anymore TOR starters. The Padres next #3 or better arm will almost certainly come from among Lesko, Snelling, Iriarte, Mazur or Thorpe.

 

Kepler is making $10 mil….if AJ trades for him certainly we will not be taking the full $10 mil.

IMO we need an OF and 1-2 SP like Kepler who are only here for 1-2 more seasons.

I fully expect the current plan is to work in the youngsters;Merrill/Marsee/Snelling/Thorpe etc full time as soon as ‘25.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 10, 2023, 6:42 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 10, 2023, 5:46 am

Quote from JasonE135 on December 9, 2023, 5:59 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 9, 2023, 6:49 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 9, 2023, 5:53 am

With Thorpe/Lizzaraga/Snelling/Mazur/Iriarte all close…and Lesko behind them maybe AJ signs a solid #2-#3 type SP…or even trades for one knowing he could flip him,or another SP,at the deadline and not miss a beat as these young guys prove ready.

We need a solid #3 or #4 “right now”,but if all perform well we could be flush with them in August and certainly in 2025

 

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 9, 2023, 5:53 am

With Thorpe/Lizzaraga/Snelling/Mazur/Iriarte all close…and Lesko behind them maybe AJ signs a solid #2-#3 type SP…or even trades for one knowing he could flip him,or another SP,at the deadline and not miss a beat as these young guys prove ready.

We need a solid #3 or #4 “right now”,but if all perform well we could be flush with them in August and certainly in 2025

 

A legit #3 seem the most logical given the budget and pretty flexible on an arm that may have long term value (but low cost now) or short term value (but higher cost) expecting that that player (or one of the other SP candidates) can get move as needed.

Stepping back Musgrove - Darvish - King seem set as SP BUT no a clear call on Brito (who many seem to see a better fit in the pen) and Vasquez. The sea of prospects are all considered at least a half season out but I am fine if they take all 2024 to further develop … so a quality arm that lasts all 2023 may be the target in that #3-4 range.

Considering Brito and Vazquez are both considered (by most) better than much of the Padres RP and they have experience as RP (also have minor league options) adding a SP might improve the pen as one move there. Would either be a pen RH upgrade over Avila,  Waldron, Kolek? Probably yes.

So the need is there … is there a pitcher that Preller likes and can acquire (FA cost, trade capital)? Remember almost all the other teams seem to want the same thing.

We all know how much Preller loves his draft picks. I'm pretty sure that the lux tax will be the limit of our spending this year. That gives the Padres maybe $25 million max to spend.

The Padres are shopping at the shallow end of the free agent pool this year. Just one #4/5 starter and an OF like Lee would require Preller's entire budget and leave prospects to cover LF. I think this is likely. One solid OF or 2 questionable ones. Same thing with the starters: one solid or 2 questionable. High quality? Not on the table.

Musgrove, Darvish and King will be our #1-#3 starters for the next 2 years. The Padres don't have the financial flexibility to add anymore TOR starters. The Padres next #3 or better arm will almost certainly come from among Lesko, Snelling, Iriarte, Mazur or Thorpe.

 

Kepler is making $10 mil….if AJ trades for him certainly we will not be taking the full $10 mil.

IMO we need an OF and 1-2 SP like Kepler who are only here for 1-2 more seasons.

I fully expect the current plan is to work in the youngsters;Merrill/Marsee/Snelling/Thorpe etc full time as soon as ‘25.

 

Yeah, that $10MM in the face of other needs is not optimal. Plus 2023 was close to his career year (after 2019 his offensive stats were not that impressive) so not a slam dunk to perform at PETCO.

Does appear Kepler is on the market (as is Polanco) by the TWINS … but they are currently angling for ML pitching … not something the Padres really have to offer.

I could make an “unlikely” scenario where Polanco is dealt to MIA for pitching allowing MINN to take Cronenworth ($7MM) and a prospect (eg Bergert) for Kepler ($10MM)  … MINN save a bit in 2024 and net Kepler only cost an incremental $3MM to the Padres who avoid a different costly add for the OF while shedding the long term obligation to Croney. Added pressure on Merrill to support the ML INF.  Not very likely.

Quote from fenn68 on December 10, 2023, 8:07 am

Mental gymnastics given multiple needs and limited funds … what is the “best case” performance scenario for the limited FA SP requiring maybe $10MM to sign vs the “worst case” performance scenario for one of the SP prospects (Thorpe, Snelling, Mazur, Iriate, Bergert)? How close do they believe the prospects can be to the FA to justify going with the prospect and avoid a $10MM payroll hit … and deploy that elsewhere?

Need to be wary of believing that they can replicate the “luck” they had in 2023 with Wacha and Lugo with sub-4.00 ERA and maybe more likely get a 4.00+ ERA arm. Can a prospect deliver a mid 4 ERA? A Preller debate.

Quote from JasonE135 on December 10, 2023, 10:27 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 10, 2023, 8:07 am

Mental gymnastics given multiple needs and limited funds … what is the “best case” performance scenario for the limited FA SP requiring maybe $10MM to sign vs the “worst case” performance scenario for one of the SP prospects (Thorpe, Snelling, Mazur, Iriate, Bergert)? How close do they believe the prospects can be to the FA to justify going with the prospect and avoid a $10MM payroll hit … and deploy that elsewhere?

Need to be wary of believing that they can replicate the “luck” they had in 2023 with Wacha and Lugo with sub-4.00 ERA and maybe more likely get a 4.00+ ERA arm. Can a prospect deliver a mid 4 ERA? A Preller debate.

I think that both Profar and Kepler could be within the Padres price range. Honestly, $25-$30 million buys you a total of 3-4 WAR. Between 3 players? I don't know if $10 million per year is even enough for 1 below average but reliable starting pitcher anymore.

Quote from WindsorUK on December 10, 2023, 10:40 am

Can someone explain how the Duds are "deferring" money to Ohtani? Isn't that basically circumventing any salary/tax threshold?

Certainly he should count for $70 million every year, for 10 years, right? Or does the salary start low and go high, or vice versa?