Quote from fenn68 on March 15, 2024, 1:39 pm

Suarez is going nowhere in 2024. First, doubt they could get a LF that will do more for the team winning than Suarez will do as an end of game RHRP (probably the closer).

Realistically would never rely on Go, De Los Santos, Estrada or anyone else in high leverage situations based on their history. Maybe Matsui can close (but maybe not over the course of a 162 game season and Suarez is the best alternative if not outright winning the closer slot).

I maybe see more value in Suarez in looking at the positives in 2022 and the non-injured part of 2023 … maybe not great but a lot more upside than the alternatives. If the Padres want to win in 2024 (and the trade for Cease suggest they do) they have to have multiple end of game quality options.

Side: would not have signed him to that contract but Preller did and that suggests he has bought into his upside … it would take a lot to get Preller to trade him in 2024.

Quote from fenn68 on March 15, 2024, 2:01 pm

I guess if the Padres cannot sign a useful FA for what might be a max of $5MM+/- … and trade is the better option for a veteran who also comes in at $5MM or less on a 1 year control … what is the most in terms of prospect ranking would you consider dealing. I as assuming that at that price point and the fact a team is trading that player … we will not be talking about a top player … just “serviceable”.

Someone outside the current Top 10?

Hard to figure out who is actually out there at that price point, a player that another team actually wants to trade and for what return? Maybe some that are less (or equal) to who the Padres have now … but is that worth trading for?

Preller has a real challenge … first just finding a player to try for.

Quote from fenn68 on March 15, 2024, 2:23 pm

Injuries may open up some opportunities for a trade.

Houston’s Urquidy just got pulled because of an elbow issue … Houston has already a long list of SP ticketed for the IL … they are contenders in a battle with Texas and Seattle for the AL WEST … may be motivated … not normally considered willing to go the price for one of the remaining FA especially if their own SP will return at some point.

They have on their bench (non-starter) Mauricio Dubon … 29 year super utility for them (INF/OF) … had been a starter with SF and a “good” hitter recently. 3 years control … $3.5MM really fits the Padres. Maybe a 90 wRC+ / 0.5-1.0 WAR but very good defense. Not game changing but some legit ML insurance for the OF.

Would the Padres be willing to utilize one of Avila, Waldron, Vasquez (HOU would want a SP with ML experience even if minimal)? One of those deals were some “balancing” may be needed depending on who the Padres give vs the valuation of Dubon.

 

Quote from lafnboy13 on March 15, 2024, 2:32 pm

Michael Taylor to Pirates for 4m

Quote from fenn68 on March 15, 2024, 2:47 pm

Quote from lafnboy13 on March 15, 2024, 2:32 pm

Michael Taylor to Pirates for 4m

Wow … his pre-winter projection was $14MM/2 years (AAV $7MM).

Appears his 2023 was viewed as an aberration and teams expected him to really be that low offense / high K% player … defense not enough to offset the potentially bad offense.

Well PITT was the other team highlighted in the mix for Pham … they are now out … does Pham finally drop his demand and come to agreement with the Padres? Looking at what Duvall and Taylor signed for … he would be hard pressed to for a much bigger contract BUT based on Pham’s attitude he just might be willing to not sign now and wait into the season to get his numbers.

Given the very low low signings for Rosario, Duvall, and Taylor … is there a chance that one of J.D.Martinez and Brandon Belt (both were estimated for bigger money before) drop their demand enough to interest the Padres? DH only at this point but really would be the most reliable step up to the offense. Martinez’s name has bounce around some teams but little on Belt. With the addition of Cease these veterans may like the idea of being the starting DH on a contender with Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts. Can they come down to a max $8MM or even less?

Quote from sportwarrior on March 15, 2024, 3:02 pm

Quote from fenn68 on March 15, 2024, 2:47 pm

Quote from lafnboy13 on March 15, 2024, 2:32 pm

Michael Taylor to Pirates for 4m

Wow … his pre-winter projection was $14MM/2 years (AAV $7MM).

Appears his 2023 was viewed as an aberration and teams expected him to really be that low offense / high K% player … defense not enough to offset the potentially bad offense.

Well PITT was the other team highlighted in the mix for Pham … they are now out … does Pham finally drop his demand and come to agreement with the Padres? Looking at what Duvall and Taylor signed for … he would be hard pressed to for a much bigger contract BUT based on Pham’s attitude he just might be willing to not sign now and wait into the season to get his numbers.

Given the very low low signings for Rosario, Duvall, and Taylor … is there a chance that one of J.D.Martinez and Brandon Belt (both were estimated for bigger money before) drop their demand enough to interest the Padres? DH only at this point but really would be the most reliable step up to the offense. Martinez’s name has bounce around some teams but little on Belt. With the addition of Cease these veterans may like the idea of being the starting DH on a contender with Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts. Can they come down to a max $8MM or even less?

I'd love JD Martinez in the lineup, but given (a) how locked into DH he is at this point, and (b) how many at bats Manny and Campy are slated to get in the DH spot this season, it might be kind of hard to justify his expense.

That said, it's not all that hard to see him lowering his asking price to <$8m if we give him 2 years. He only made $10m last year with the Dodgers, after all.

----- EDIT -----

I guess I'll caveat that it also depends on how long it'll take for Manny to be a regular in the field. Even when that happens, though, I imagine we'll see quite a few more "health management" starts at DH for him this year than we're used to seeing.

Quote from fenn68 on March 15, 2024, 3:20 pm

Quote from sportwarrior on March 15, 2024, 3:02 pm

Quote from fenn68 on March 15, 2024, 2:47 pm

Quote from lafnboy13 on March 15, 2024, 2:32 pm

Michael Taylor to Pirates for 4m

Wow … his pre-winter projection was $14MM/2 years (AAV $7MM).

Appears his 2023 was viewed as an aberration and teams expected him to really be that low offense / high K% player … defense not enough to offset the potentially bad offense.

Well PITT was the other team highlighted in the mix for Pham … they are now out … does Pham finally drop his demand and come to agreement with the Padres? Looking at what Duvall and Taylor signed for … he would be hard pressed to for a much bigger contract BUT based on Pham’s attitude he just might be willing to not sign now and wait into the season to get his numbers.

Given the very low low signings for Rosario, Duvall, and Taylor … is there a chance that one of J.D.Martinez and Brandon Belt (both were estimated for bigger money before) drop their demand enough to interest the Padres? DH only at this point but really would be the most reliable step up to the offense. Martinez’s name has bounce around some teams but little on Belt. With the addition of Cease these veterans may like the idea of being the starting DH on a contender with Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts. Can they come down to a max $8MM or even less?

I'd love JD Martinez in the lineup, but given (a) how locked into DH he is at this point, and (b) how many at bats Manny and Campy are slated to get in the DH spot this season, it might be kind of hard to justify his expense.

That said, it's not all that hard to see him lowering his asking price to <$8m if we give him 2 years. He only made $10m last year with the Dodgers, after all.

Machado is the question. How long before he is back to 3B full-time. If it is by mid-APR one line of thinking … if part-time until July totally different. As for Campusano … I would have Campusano DH a lot when not catching BUT that is under the assumption of not better alternative (Martinez should be that better alternative). Campy catches 120 games and “rests” the other 42 might keep him stronger for the playoff run and playoffs.

Did hear that Martinez wants to return to the East Coast … but no takers yet … so?

I would apply similar logic to Belt (who may only now be a DH vs RHP) but he is a LHH and that is a plus on this team. Given his poor work recently vs LHP he may come in cheaper than Martinez. If either are low enough … a high upside low cost gamble. Not as though a lot of alternatives.

The wild card is what the Padres really think of Pauley’s bat for 2024 … if they really like him for DH going forward might just play real hard ball on a contract with a veteran DH but at the right price sign the vet and let Pauley get another year in the minors.

When the dust settles … it will probably be Pham at $5MM.

Quote from fenn68 on March 15, 2024, 4:55 pm

Another one bites the dust … JD Davis signs with the A’s. No word on contract yet.

Quote from sportwarrior on March 15, 2024, 5:08 pm

Quote from fenn68 on March 15, 2024, 4:55 pm

Another one bites the dust … JD Davis signs with the A’s. No word on contract yet.

$2.5m base with $1m incentives.